Mystery of the Bloody MadneZZ. Epilogue

Strategy of Controlled Transformation of the Russian Federation

Exclusively by “Borysfen Intel”
Previous parts of the publication (1, 2, 3, 4)

 

Volodymyr Shevchenko
Andrii Savarets

Introduction

For more than a year, the Russian Federation has been continuing its senseless and merciless war of aggression against Ukraine. The war for the Russian Federation is completely unpromising, it has already laid catastrophic consequences for the Russian society for many years. A war waged in the face of constantly changing public goals, in the complete absence of at least some intelligible and realistic image of victory. A war that is destructive for the interests of both the Russian state and the society as a whole, and for the interests of key power groups that govern the Russian society.

The paradox of the pointlessness and external irrationality of this war cannot be avoided or ignored.

It has divided those who try to explain the meaning of the war and its course into several almost irreconcilable groups:

– supporters of the sudden collective madness of the Russian military-political leadership (which for two decades had been demonstrating very effective results in the management of the Russian Federation);

– supporters of the explanation of what is happening by the complete degradation of this very leadership (which largely contradicts the version of the first ones);

– supporters of an attempt to find in the process a logic corresponding to modern ideas about the structure of society in general, and of the Russian one, in particular (without denying the essential, but not the key role of the degradation of ruling elites in conditions of authoritarianism).

In our previous numerous publications and speeches in the media, we have consistently (since March 2022) tried to look at the ongoing bloody “theater of the absurd” from the standpoint of the third approach — from the point of view of the objective laws of social development.

Experience shows that if people who have previously demonstrated the results of effective management for decades suddenly begin to receive results that differ from those claimed (and, especially, contradict them as “exactly the opposite”), but at the same time stubbornly continue the previous practice, having every opportunity to stop, the only reasonable explanation is that their true goal is actually the results obtained, and not those proclaimed to the public.

It is with this situation that we have been dealing since the Russian Federation’s apparently unmotivated invasion of the territory of Ukraine.

This approach makes it possible to most logically explain the true goals of the war, its immediate causes, the specific (as a rule, paradoxically insane) nature of its conduct by the Russian Federation, the reasons for the externally illogical behavior of its political leadership, as well as to make a number of reasonable forecasts for the future.

The methodological approach of “rational political economy”, based on the principle of Roman law Cui prodest (“Who benefits”) has led us to the answer to the key question: What is the true aim of the Special Military Operation?

The answer is:

The true goal of the SMO is the desire not of the army, NOT of the military-industrial complex, NOT of the oligarchy, NOT of the bureaucratic vertical, NOT of the regional or ethnic elites, but of the RUSSIAN SPECIAL SERVICES, INSEPARABLY MERGED WITH CRIME, (referred to by us as the “Monsters Corporation” or “Corporation”) to realize their claims to absolute power in the Russian Federation (including shadow and legitimate components), which they now do not have to the extent they need to, despite a common myth stating the opposite.

From this answer logically follow the answers to the following questions:

– The first question: Why does the Russian Federation not stop the war, despite its absolute futility, grave consequences for Russian society, complete absence of a realistic image of victory and the position of the whole world, including the pressure of its only influential ally — China?

The answer:

The war continues because the true goal of the SMO has not been achieved. And it is impossible to achieve the goal either within the framework of the constitutional process, or even through a coup d’état. But solely through the revolutionary upheaval of the whole society, affecting its basic structures. To stop the war is to leave the structure of the Russian society in the same form with the same many centers of power.

– The second question: What is president Putin’s role in the Russian society?

The answer:

Putin is a puppet figure who has an artificially created aura of an absolute dictator, capable of manifesting his dictatorial powers only in strictly limited (not by him) spheres, which is especially clearly seen in moments of crisis, in particular, in conditions of war.

Such a view, reflected in our previous publications, gives an understanding of most of the paradoxes of this war: its causes and nature of the conduct, as well as the specific behavior of the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation both within the country and in the international arena.

However, most important questions remain:

– the deepest, fundamental reasons for this war;

– immediate motivations for starting it at the end of February 2022,

– effectiveness of the implementation of a rational hidden plan for the transformation of the Russian Federation.

The answers to these questions are in the next part of our study.

Fundamental Reasons For and Ideology of the Bloody MadneZZ

A Picture of What Is Happening From the Point of View of Rational Political Economy

Instead of an Epigraph

“Today, power in the Russian Federation belongs to a political entity that is quite unique in every sense: organized crime merged with the power and upper bureaucratic class. The meaning of its existence is to pick up all the material goods available to it for itself and “pupate” the space.

For Russia, such a subject is unique, since there has never been such a subject as a governing elite throughout its history. All previous rulers of the country had a certain set of principles that could be attributed to the ideological content and content of their activities. In one form or another, personal and group interests were combined with the interests of the development of the state. The current ones simply do not have such an option. All their interests are purely selfish. And this is not an assessment, but a statement.

Therefore, the study of the mafia state is greatly simplified. There is no uncertainty factor that arises in the form of ideological motives. Because there is no idea. The mafia structure is extremely primitive and is described by strictly rational laws, among which there is no place for irrational motives and actions”.

Russian analyst and blogger A. Nesmiyan

The answers to questions about the most fundamental reasons for the war and the laws of a very dynamic picture of the current Russian reality should lie in the objective and universal laws of the development of any human societies (of course, including the Russian one). In particular, in the patterns of development of shadow political power and shadow economic arbitration — the most influential factor in the public life of the Russian Federation. In the statics and dynamics of the process. Especially in the attractor state — “the final point of this dynamic” for the “Corporation” (the initiator and sole beneficiary in the Russian Federation of this war).

The final point of movement for the “Corporation” should be:

– firstly — catastrophic;

– secondly — close in time to the onset;

– and thirdly — so fatally inevitable that it required urgent and seemingly suicidal actions for the country.

Criminality In the Russian Federation (Simple and State) — the History of Formation

It makes sense to recall how the system of such power, which has two stages in its development, was born and strengthened in the Russian Federation.

The first stage — 1991 – around 2000. The period of complete chaos and “managerial coma” of the times of “perestroika” ended with the fact that in the “dashing 90s” outright “classical” crime seized from state structures the function of political control within the society, including one of the key ones — economic arbitration.

  1. Sekatsky, an employee of the Department of Social Philosophy and Philosophy of History of St. Petersburg University, colorfully, accurately and quite complementarily describes this phenomenon, which many of the living citizens could observe in the countries of the former USSR. And in the Russian Federation, in particular.

He comes to the conclusion that: “In general, bandits in crimson jackets can be treated as you like, but I believe that it was they who saved Russia from the final collapse according to the Yugoslavian scenario. Being an active and numerous stratum, they organized power on the ground and successfully replaced the militia, which was incapable of anything… Local criminality has taken over fiscal functions and the functions of justice, even if carried out by “concepts”. The power of the Bratva (brotherhood of gangsters — Transl.) was much more transparent and understandable: it was closer to the people, its representatives were responsible for their words, which was so sorely lacking in the state… Of course, those guys managed “by concepts”, but in their concepts there were elements of justice, albeit rather primitive one” [1].

In the process of developing the society and strengthening its legitimate structures (first of all, power structures), the above-mentioned function was increasingly taken over by special services, which, naturally, gradually were taking away a share from outright criminals.

The stage ended in the early 2000s, when the system of shadow management of the society in the Russian Federation acquired a two-level pyramidal structure: special services at the top of the pyramid, and under them — ethnic and extra-ethnic criminal structures.

Thus, the system of command, control and arbitration passed first an openly criminal stage, then a criminal-FSB stage, and ended in the FSB- criminal stage.

The latter construction is potentially very stable and could exist indefinitely (there are more than enough examples in the world), if it were not for one significant “BUT”.

In the depths of the last stage of development (also due to objective circumstances), a new command and control system was born and rapidly developed, to a large extent, denying the old one.

The Real Threat

The function of shadow political control over the society and economic arbitration in the process of large-scale international economic integration of the Russian Federation into the civilized world (that is, in the course of completely objective processes) was increasingly (and irreversibly) replaced by specialized legal international institutions operating transparently and according to clear rules.

This process is closely related to the level of involvement of the Russian economy in the international economy, and as of February 23, 2022, it was simply colossal and posed an existential threat of a critical nature to the “Corporation”.

Moreover, international economic integration was mainly euro-Atlantic, by which we mean not integration with NATO structures, but economic integration (although not formalized by a separate document) with the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States of America, and the Western world in general, where Japan and South Korea can be safely attributed.

At this, according to UNCTAD [2], in fact, the United States was the largest investor into the Russian economy. The fact is that many foreign investments in Russia were made through third countries (an American corporation would often buy a share in the capital of a Russian company through its Dutch or Irish subsidiaries).

After the Invasion, the United States (over $100 billion), the United Kingdom ($78 billion) and Germany ($51 billion) lost the most among the foreign investors forced to cease their activities in the Russian Federation, which convincingly emphasizes the Euro-Atlantic component in investing in Russia.

As reported by Frank Media, citing the words of the Head of the Supervisory Board of the Moscow Exchange, in July 2021, there were more than 80 % of shares of Russian companies in free float on the stock market owned by foreigners.

The financial system of the Russian Federation was also deeply integrated into the international one — as of the end of 2021, out of $612.9 billion in gold and foreign exchange reserves, $481.4 were foreign currency assets (in particular, government and non-government debt securities, deposits and balances on nostro accounts, etc.). 33.9 % of gold reserves were denominated in euros, 10.9 % — in US dollars, 6.2 % — in pounds sterling.

At this, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation could issue the ruble only in the “currency board” mode, that is, the Central Bank can print rubles only for the amount of available currency in the gold and foreign exchange reserve.

Taking into account the volume of foreign investments (as of 01.01.2022, direct investments in the Russian Federation amounted to $609.6 billion, portfolio investments — to $273.9 billion, other investments — to $275.5 billion), the geography of investors (despite the nominally largest Cyprus, the Netherlands, Luxembourg were actually the USA, the World Bank and Germany), as well as a wide range of economic spheres (oil and gas, banking, automotive industry and food industry, construction, chemical and pharmaceutical industries, agriculture), it is absolutely natural that such a deep penetration of foreign business into the Russian economy began to actively influence the regulatory environment.

For example, according to the Doing Business 2020, Russia entered the top 30, taking 28th place, ahead of Japan and France. In fact, this is a rating of the integration of the country’s economy into the international regulatory environment [3].

Besides, the Russian Federation has bound itself with a number of international treaties that define the grounds, limits and way of behavior of the state in a particular situation, as well as the exchange of information, which makes national systems more transparent, predictable, and therefore more transnationally controlled.

Given that international law takes precedence over Russian law (Part 4 of Article 15 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation), then through international law, in fact, control of the Russian economy was exercised [4].

Why February 24, 2022?

Proceeding from the above, the processes had been developing gradually for a long time, but why did the Invasion occur on February 24, 2022?

Why did the center of power in the form of special services and crime up to that time put up with its position, despite the contradiction between its endless power ambitions and the actual position of far from absolute power? What had to happen for the “Corporation” to decide on a large-scale continental war in the center of Europe? At this, it calmly accepts and CONSCIOUSLY MULTIPLIES the economic, political, reputational and human sacrifices of the Russian society?

The key to understanding the date of the Invasion was the date of the full launch of Nord Stream 2, the pipes of which were already filled with technical gas, and only a few days remained to the end of the certification process.

Apart from the obvious economic and political advantages for the Russian Federation (strengthening of Europe’s dependence on Russia, fall of interest in Ukraine, not to mention the banal economic profit), there was also an undoubted radical strengthening of international rules for doing business within the country. Instead of gas pumped to Europe, in addition to foreign exchange earnings, Russia would receive European business culture. And, for absolutely objective reasons.

At one time, having “cut a window” into Europe, Peter I not only ensured the export of Russian products, but also a counterflow in the form of European cultural expansion, which ensured the accelerated technological development of the Russian state, but at the same time, destroyed the former archaic way of life, and naturally redistributed the centers of power and the regulation of financial flows.

When the basis of the economy is oil and gas, and it is regulated by European regulations and determined by European business customs, their impact on the domestic business environment is predetermined. Oligarchs no longer need to gather at thieves’ meetings or at safe houses in order to resolve a dispute — they can resolve it in the High Court of London.

Moving such a model to lower levels of social and economic relations is a matter of time.

And it had already been happening. Not only oligarchs, but medium-sized businessmen, and even “small shopkeepers” structured their businesses and their property with the intricacies of holding companies in foreign jurisdictions. That is, they defended themselves with Western (primarily European) laws and courts. Any “raid” of the security forces on business could result in a lawsuit in the international court and a substantial fine for the state, and the Russian Federation was obliged to comply with that court decision.

In the “civilized” business environment, where Western business practices reign, shadow economic arbitration, and then shadow mechanisms of social control, become unnecessary for objective reasons.

Similarity of the Situation To the Ukrainian Sample of 2013 Or “Proof by Analogy”

The position of the informal FSB-criminal pyramid of power (whose interests are represented by President Putin and of which he is a protégé) on the eve of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine can be compared with the position of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych in November 2013.

Then, after a long process of negotiations and approvals, he suddenly refused to sign the document on the Association of Ukraine with the EU, although, as mentioned above, the level of real economic integration of Ukraine into the Western economy with the natural penetration of international control procedures was incomparably lower than in the Russian Federation at the end of February 2022.

Yanukovych simply could not sign such the document, despite the real risk of revolution and pressure from Western diplomacy. Ukraine’s European integration provided for the erosion of criminal and oligarchic sovereignty, which Yanukovych largely managed to achieve with the support of the domestic oligarchy, law enforcement agencies and the Party of Regions.

Europe would inevitably begin to demand the rule of law, an independent (first of all from Yanukovych himself) judiciary, reform of the law enforcement system, and so on. And of course, in that new world, there would definitely be no place for the criminal economic model that Yanukovych and the interested forces built and strengthened, and which first absorbed the entire openly criminal business, then the “grey” one, and then proceeded to absorb the legal one.

European integration put an end to the idea of irremovability of power in Ukraine, cherished by Yanukovych, lack of rights and freedoms of citizens, absence of an independent judiciary and existence of informal (that is, corruption and criminal) regulatory practices.

Exactly the same problem was faced by the shadow corruption-criminal pyramid, which is the supporting structure of the current Russian power, only the scale of the problem, and, consequently, the “price of the issue” were disproportionately higher.

The natural and objectively conditioned international integration of the economic and political sphere of the Russian Federation, bringing advantages for some (majority) power and social groups, at the same time carried a mortal threat of an existential nature for others. Namely: for the FSB-criminal pyramid — the core of the current Russian regime, its backbone and system-creating force. The core of the Russian power could not fail to respond to critical challenges.

“Conservative Revolution” In the Russian Federation

The Essence of Revolutionary Theory

No truly revolutionary transformation on a national scale is possible without a revolutionary ideology. And such an ideology of the “Great Transition” was created.

It justifies the sudden, literally out of nowhere, urgent need to “protect” the Russian Federation’s economic, political and spiritual sovereignty from the “aggressive” world (primarily the West).

At the heart of the large-scale plan for such “protection” is the idea of the so-called Russian conservative revolution, developed by Putin’s favorite philosopher A. Dugin. Its main provisions are not only actively promoted by all media in the Russian Federation, but are strictly, consistently and extremely effectively introduced into the public life of the country. The system is “wrapped” in jingoistic aggressive misanthropic rhetoric and involves a radical distancing from the world of Western values, an uncompromising struggle against its influence within the country and reliance on traditional moral values.

It involves:

– the country’s self-isolation from international economic control systems;

– self-isolation from international political control — the so-called sovereign democracy;

– reliance on archaic (conservative) social values;

– discrediting and overthrowing the old military, oligarchic and regional elite, representing the current power structure in the Russian Federation in its form distributed among several centers of power;

– the new “patriotic” national elite’s total control over the economy, foreign and domestic policy of the country, behavior, and even the thoughts of its population;

– strengthening old and creating new repressive structures;

– maximum militarization of all aspects of public life;

– transition from federal to a unitary state with a rigid vertical of power.

In addition to the fundamental concept of “traditional values”, the second key concept of such an ideology is “sovereignty”.

It is about sovereignty, as a reference point for the nation, that has been talked about in all the stands in the Russian Federation since the beginning of the Special Military Operation. It is the protection of sovereignty from the “encroachments” on it by the “insidious and aggressive West” that is increasingly mentioned as the main goal of the SMO. Putin spoke about sovereignty in all his speeches (in particular, in his Address to the Federal Assembly). It is about sovereignty that Patrushev, one of the key decision-makers in the “Corporation”, constantly speaks about. Thousands of propagandists of different levels talk about sovereignty as the highest value around the clock on all media platforms. And they, in this case, are not disingenuous at all.

It is sovereignty, understood as the triumph of the above-mentioned tasks of the “conservative revolution”, that can ensure the true goal of the SMO — the reign of the absolute power of the “Corporation” presented by special services and criminals (welded together by the criminal psychology they share).

Since the “Corporation” consists of, allegedly, different parties, but in fact — two inseparable ones — special services and criminal, they currently offer the society two options for the image of “future Russian social and national justice”.

One way — from outright crime — is offered by head of the Wagner PMC Prigozhin, who has all the signs of a center of power, namely: power, financial, media resources, as well as his specific ideological doctrine of Russian greatness, patriotism and social justice.

Those who are not inspired by the image of a bright society of the future, living “by concepts”, are offered a path from FSB Colonel Strelkov-Girkin who is now in the role of a military intellectual, a man of honor — a White Guard officer — a sort of Baron Wrangel of our days. Literally before our eyes, Strelkov-Girkin — a loner-oppositionist, a fiercest and most unpunished critic of the current rotten authorities led by President Putin, is turning into the leader and main tribune of an ultra-patriotic organization — the Club of Angry Patriots with a transition to the all-Russian public movement — the center of crystallization of numerous like-minded people.

Both promote the idea of a society where right-wing and left-wing ideas merge into national socialism, and liberals are declared enemies of the people with all the ensuing consequences.

The Ultimate Goal of Revolutionary Transformation

The Iranian model suits the “Corporation” as the model of the future New Russia.

The model involves the creation of a Russian analogue of the IRGC — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (in the Russian version — the conditional ‘”Russian Conservative Revolutionary Guard Corps”) with similar and legally fixed powers.

Recall that in Iran, the IRGC not with the help of shadow mechanisms, but on quite legal grounds controls the economy, domestic and foreign policy, the army, and naturally, the special services — that is, it is the undivided and (which is of key importance) legitimate owner of the country and all its wealth, sharing it only with the bearer of conceptual power — the clergy.

Directions, Rationality and High Efficiency of the “Conservative Revolution”

After the Invasion, there began rapid processes of transformation of the Russian state, which were simply not possible to initiate and implement in any other way than a demonstratively aggressive war.

Namely:

– Severance of economic ties with the Western world without the slightest regard for the losses suffered from this by the Russian Federation itself

The scale of the severance of ties can be illustrated by a few figures.

As of February 2022, 2405 subsidiaries of 1404 companies from the European Union and the Group of Seven had been working in Russia (all in all more than 5 thousand foreign companies).

Foreign business had directly formed 2 million jobs in the Russian economy, and another 4–6 million citizens were indirectly connected with it.

The annual income of foreign companies that finally left the Russian Federation amounted to $42.1 billion, in 2021 they paid $3.3 billion in taxes.

Before the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there were, for example, more than 20 automobile plants that produced more than a million automobiles (trucks and cars) of world brands (American, Japanese, German, Korean and Chinese). Together with suppliers from other industries, the automotive industry generated a total of about 3.5 million jobs.

By the end of 2022, only 11 foreign enterprises and 14 out of 60 car brands remained in the Russian car market, 3 of them Russian, the rest — Chinese.

Following Cargill, Viterra and Archer-Daniels-Midland, Louis Dreyfus, the last major foreign grain trader, leaves Russia:

– The Russian Federation’s withdrawal from international treaties, agreements and conventions

At one time, the Russian Federation ratified 60 conventions of the Council of Europe on various issues (human rights, legal cooperation, the fight against terrorism and crime, cultural, social problems, etc.).

On February 25, 2022, the Council of Europe suspended Russia’s rights of representation due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and on March 15, the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe decided to immediately expel Russia from the Council of Europe.

The exclusion of the Russian Federation from the Council of Europe involves the simultaneous denunciation of the Statute of the Council of Europe and the European Convention on Human Rights, which means depriving Russian citizens of the opportunity to appeal to the European Court of Human Rights. By the way, the Russian Federation ranked 2nd in Europe after Turkey in terms of the number of cases awaiting consideration in the Court on the claims of its citizens.

On January 17, 2023, Putin submitted to the State Duma a draft law on the termination of international treaties between the Russian Federation and the Council of Europe, in particular:

– Statute of the Council of Europe of 5.05.1949;

– Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms of 4.11.1950 and its protocols;

– European Convention on the Suppression of Terrorism of 27.01.1977;

– European Charter of Local Self-Government of 15.10.1985;

– European Social Charter of 3.05.1996.

The Russian Federation also withdraws from international agreements on:

– protection of children from sexual abuse and exploitation;

– money laundering and terrorist financing,

– counterfeiting of medical products,

– mutual legal assistance in criminal matters.

A total of 21 agreements have been denounced or proposed for denunciation.

In addition, in February 2023, Russia denounced the Criminal Law Convention on Corruption, the observance of which is monitored by the influential international organization GRECO [5]. The monitoring mechanism on the part of GRECO made it possible to control the states (and the Russian Federation in particular) on very important (and key for the “Corporation”) positions at the international level.

Naturally, the key action in these processes of “sovereignization” and “getting up from knees” is the termination of international treaties providing for control over money laundering:

– Break with world Orthodoxy

A special aspect of the “return to traditional values” (in fact, self-isolation in the religious sphere) is the process of growing confrontation with the Patriarchate of Constantinople;

– “Tightening the screws” at home and establishing an increasingly harsh repressive regime

It goes in several directions simultaneously:

– improving the technical support of repressive agencies;

– strengthening the control of the already fully controlled media sphere;

– toughening legal responsibility for free thinking. Now those who disagree are up to 25 years in camps;

– encouragement of mass denunciation — “denunciation psychosis” has reached an unprecedented level over the past 50–60 years (there is a command to denunciate on everybody except for the highest “caste of the untouchable”).

Due to the fact that the “revolutionary-conservative transformations” are carried out by the FSB-criminal structure, the tendency to establish prison rules in the country from a mixture of vertuhay’s (prison guard — Transl.) [6] and gangster’s rules is not even hidden.

As we can see, the return of shadow funds from international control to the interested forces’ control within the Russian Federation is very effective.

That is why, through the war, the Russian Federation is quite consciously confronted with challenges with which neither the oligarchs, nor the regional elite, nor even the Russian army can cope. Moreover, Russia’s bureaucratic vertical and army have clearly demonstrated that they cannot cope even with their direct duties.

At this, the “Corporation” deliberately sacrifices its most valuable asset at the moment — President Putin — through his total and directed political, military, diplomatic, moral and psychological discrediting.

But the future prize is worth all the costs. The prize is absolute power in a unitary, stable, more or less homogeneous condition.

The “Corporation” sees the outcome of the war as the defeat of the Russian Federation, a necessary condition for the radical reorganization of the country into New Russia.

The entire history of the Russian state since its foundation confirms this thesis.

Despite the popular opinion of the opposite nature, this is actually a risk-free project for the “Corporation”.

The “Corporation” comes out of each crisis strengthened: Chechnya, terrorism against its own citizens, Bolotnaya Square, SMO. And the greater the scale of the crisis, the greater the strengthening of the “Corporation”. A truly revolutionary upheaval is an ideal condition for the total strengthening of power.

If we analyze the processes from the point of view we propose, we see not the madness and helplessness of the Russian rulers, but its rationality and effectiveness. Compliance of the results obtained with the set goals, achieved in a short time.

Conclusion

In any cycle of development of any society, socio-economic regulatory mechanisms first arise as spontaneous, simple and extra-legal. Then they inevitably evolve into legitimate ones, carried out by specialized structures — national, and in the modern world — more and more supranational.

The convergence of legal systems in the process of international integration of the Russian Federation is an imperceptible, routine and monotonous process that irreversibly changes the country’s regulatory environment towards transparency and external control, which affected the interests of the current beneficiaries of shadow control — special services and crime, which, acting as a whole, form to a large extent legal control structures for themselves — the legislative and executive power of the Russian Federation in the center and on the ground.

The objective reason that brought to life the bloody madness of the aggressive war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine is the critical need for this interested social force to reverse the objective process of deepening the large-scale international (primarily Euro-Atlantic) integration of the Russian economy and, as a result, politics.

The launch of Nord Stream 2, planned for early March 2022, radically increased the degree of interdependence between the Russian and European economies. The process of displacing the domestic shadow mechanisms for regulating economic (and, as a result, socio-political) relations, legal and international, acquired a new quality and for the “Corporation” (“FSB-criminal pyramid”) acquired a catastrophic character.

Indeed, “procrastination was like death”. The situation required an immediate response from the interested party. If the Invasion had not occurred on February 24, 2022, in a week or two the interested forces would have had to passively observe how their influence is rapidly melting away and there is a very different from zero chance eventually to lose everything “earned by heavy work”, freedom, and maybe life (there are many similar examples from modern world history).

The goals of such a response naturally proceed from the objectively existing interests of the structure, namely:

– BY ANY MEANS to stop the fatal process for it;

– BY ANY MEANS to reverse it;

– To create conditions under which the “Corporation” gets absolute power in the future Russia (adds total and legitimate power to the shadow one), and is not content with only a relatively modest share of it (dividing it before February 24, 2022 with the army, oligarchy and regional elites who have this power by virtue of legislatively enshrined powers, as well as due to the corrupt influence of these centers of power on the legislative and executive power in the Russian Federation at all levels).

These are the real goals (and not publicly proclaimed false ones) that are achieved in the process of the Russian army’s barbaric invasion into the territory of Ukraine.

The war, which is not externally motivated, aggressive and condemned by the international community, inevitably stops and reverses international economic integration (primarily Euro-Atlantic), “pupates” economic processes under the slogans of achieving economic sovereignty and import substitution, which, in turn, returns the ability to control political and economic processes within the Russian Federation to the sphere of influence of the “Corporation”.

For the sake of achieving such “sovereignty”, there is a readiness of the initiators of these processes to isolate themselves from the West, to build a low-tech, closed and raw material economy, a state capitalism through the mechanism of nationalization of enterprises privatized at one time by oligarchs.

 

The serious focus on such a transformation of the society is evidenced by the fact that in the actions of the leadership of the Russian Federation there is a clear tendency to make decisions that make it impossible for the society to return to the previous (pre-war) structure of power.

Figuratively speaking, political “barbed arrows” are used that cannot be removed without causing fatal damage to the social organism.

It is impossible to leave these “arrows”, because the war, in this case, becomes endless (which is impossible), but to pull them out — the system will inevitably acquire a new quality. Quite a meaningful rational strategy.

The ideologues of the “conservative revolution” did everything possible to “burn all bridges behind them” and make the transformation process irreversible:

– obviously impracticable ultimatum to the United States of December 15, 2021;

– obviously impracticable ultimatum to NATO of January 10, 2022;

– invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022;

– the use of operational-strategic weapons mainly for terrorist purposes. (Only one out of every 26 missiles was aimed at military targets in Ukraine. The remaining 25 were aimed at civilian targets. In total, the Russian army fired about 5 thousand missiles at the territory of Ukraine);

– demonstrative encouragement by the top military-political leadership of the Russian Federation of war crimes of its armed forces, including the crime of genocide (as of April 10, 2023, 79668 crimes of the Russian army in Ukraine are being investigated);

– marginalization of foreign policy and the rupture of traditional alliances;

– criminal militarization, creation of PMCs and national battalions;

– inclusion in the Constitution of the Russian Federation of the occupied territories of Ukraine — thereby devaluation of the Russian Constitution, desacralization of the borders and territories of the Russian Federation;

– desacralization and discrediting of the entire system of power and Putin as its symbol.

In order to be able to carry out truly radical transformations in the system of power in the Russian Federation, the current system must be destabilized as much as possible by inflicting maximum losses on it in all spheres of life, brought to the point of absurdity, and present before the world, as well as before its citizens in an extremely ugly way. Only then a new path to a “great and bright future” can be offered and a great transition to a “new greatness” can be made.

It should be said that the objective interests of the “Corporation” in its bloody adventure radically contradict the objective interests of other centers of power in the Russian Federation, which were more than satisfied with their position on February 23, 2022:

– the army and the military-industrial complex, which had not been at war for decades, creating the appearance of rearmament, had been “plundering” multibillion-dollar annual budgets in the shadow of secrecy inaccessible to external control;

– oligarchs had been accumulating billions and placing them in the West, feeling comfortable in the system of international arbitration;

– regional elites felt great in the flows of legal financial subsidies from the center, or in the processes of distributing the value created in the territories under their control.

The war of aggression:

– exposed monstrous theft in the army, discredited its leadership and led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and injuries among the military (among senior officers included);

– deprived the oligarchs of colossal riches;

– piled onto the regional authorities huge additional costs that were previously distributed in the interests of local elites.

That is why the world analytical community was waiting for an oligarchic coup, then a military one, then a revolt of regional elites. As we can see — in vain.

It was the FSB-criminal “Corporation” that turned out to be the backbone of the modern Russian state, and so far it is it who is able to impose its will on the rest of the centers of power, despite their heaviest losses in the course of a completely incomprehensible and unnecessary war.

 

The most important factor in the mass public support for the SMO was the fact that the interests of the “Corporation” coincided with the objective interests of such an influential institution in the Russian Federation as the Russian Orthodox Church — a powerful bearer of conceptual power.

The Russian Orthodox Church at all levels massively supported the SMO, since the process of returning to “traditional values” dramatically increases its public influence. But even more attractive is the possible prospect: a return of New Russia to the situation before 1917, when the Russian Orthodox Church had the status of a state religion with all the economic and political benefits. In the circles of the Russian Orthodox Church, the most radical version of this idea is popular and has long been discussed — the construction of the future Russia as an “Orthodox monarchy”.

 

The approach used also most logically explains the shocking paradox that manifested itself during the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to the Russian Federation in March 2023.

In the world analytical community, there was (and continues to exist) a consensus of the level of indisputable truth that Putin continues the war, despite its catastrophic consequences for the country he leads, because it is much more important for him to preserve his personal power and the existing configuration of power as a whole.

The President of the People’s Republic of China, who arrived as a peacemaker, literally “from the threshold” offered the Russian rulers guarantees of stability, and personally to Putin — preservation of his personal power for an indefinite period in exchange for a theoretically acceptable settlement of the conflict for all parties on the basis of the UN Charter and respect for the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

However, Putin rejected this proposal, thereby destroying the basic postulate of the world analytical consensus at his own expense.

Moreover, the top leadership of the Russian Federation took demonstrative steps in the military and political spheres, which can only be called a demonstrative discrediting of the image of the Chinese leader as a peacemaker.

Namely:

– demonstrative (during Xi’s visit) emphatically terrorist attacks of residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia and Kyiv regions, which caused numerous civilian casualties;

– Medvedev’s statement “in pursuit” of Xi-peacekeeper that the danger of nuclear war has not decreased, but increased;

– and the apotheosis — three days after the end of the visit (during which the President of the People’s Republic of China three times declared the inadmissibility of the use and proliferation of nuclear weapons), Putin announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus.

Nevertheless, the answer to the question about the reason for such paradoxical behavior of the Russian leader suggests itself: “The war is not being waged for territorial seizures, not for protecting the Russian people, opposing NATO expansion, fighting Nazism and LGBT, etc., etc., etc. (more than a dozen versions officially announced in the Russian Federation).

The war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine has no external goals at all. It is also not being conducted to preserve Putin’s power and the current power structure. The “Corporation” does not care about Putin’s fate. According to the original plan of the initiators of the SMO, the existing system of power in the Russian Federation should not be preserved, but completely destroyed and replaced by another. And in this paradigm, Putin is doomed and is an inevitable and perfectly acceptable victim.

Naturally, Xi suffered a rather sensitive failure in the political part of the visit, proposing to end the war on the condition of preserving for the sake of destruction of what all this bloody show was started.

In fact, the “Corporation” put forward counterclaims to the leader of the People’s Republic of China: “We are ready to completely “lie” under China as a vassal, but only if we first carry out the transformation of power in the Russian Federation in accordance with our plan. That is, when the true goal of the SMO is achieved. That’s when you come with your peace initiatives. But not sooner. Then the war will end in accordance with the Chinese peace plan, or any other”.

 

Our approach to the analysis of the true causes of the Special Military Operation and the role of the “Corporation” in it also allows us to return to the consideration from a new position of the version of the explosion of the northern gas pipelines by the Russian special services.

If the gas pipelines radically reduce the need for shadow arbitration in the most profitable sectors of the Russian economy and inevitably lead to the transition to civilized relations in the political sphere, then it is the “Corporation”, and not external forces, that is the main beneficiary of this terrorist attack, and, therefore, the main suspect.

P.S.

An important feature of the proposed system of views is that it proceeds from the objective laws of the development of society on the basis of the objective needs of large social groups united by common economic and political interests.

It also does not require the use of conspiracy theories as evidence in the form of an assumption about the existence of a deeply conspiratorial super-intellectual control center within the Russian special services, which no one has yet discovered in this primitive and extremely cruel environment.

In any situation (especially in crisis), groups (regardless of their number) united by common interests can identify these interests even without their formalization — at the level of intuition (what the classics of Marxism called “class instinct”’) and synchronously determine with the support or denial of certain social phenomena and processes. The emergence in this environment of leaders who express these interests better than others is no longer a problem.

In the Russian Federation at the moment, at least 10 million people belong to the “Corporation” — that is, they are direct or indirect recipients of corruption and criminal rent through its structures. It was they who, without any special agitation, understood at the subconscious level that the war was moving the processes in the right direction for them.

The late Vladlen Tatarsky (Max Fomin), both a criminal and a fiery propagandist of the SMO, brilliantly captured the essence of what was happening.

After Putin’s speech in the St. George Hall of the Kremlin (where Tatarsky was invited) on the occasion of the annexation of the occupied territories of Ukraine to the Russian Federation, he correctly understood the direction of the country’s movement and the meaning of Putin’s speech. And he expressed it with the utmost enthusiasm and unique accuracy: “That’s it! We will defeat all! We’ll kill all! We will rob everyone we need to! Everything will be as we love! Come on, with God!”

Notes:

[1] Aleksandr Sekatsky, “Russia’s Mission Is to Become Noah’s Ark”, 11.01.2011; Aleksandr Sekatsky, “On the Madness of States and Peoples”, 30.03.2023.

[2] UNCTAD — the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Founded in 1964. The headquarters of UNCTAD is in Geneva. Today it includes 195 countries.

[3] For comparison: after several years of active reforms and fulfillment of the terms of the Association Agreement with the EU, Ukraine ranks only 64th. That is, despite the absence of officially signed documents on unification, the degree of integration of the Russian economy into the world economy in general and into European in particular, significantly exceeded this indicator of integration of the Ukrainian economy.

[4] An attempt to abandon the priority of international law was carried out in 2020 by amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, in particular, it was stipulated that “Decisions of interstate bodies adopted on the basis of provisions of international treaties of the Russian Federation in their interpretation that contradict the Constitution of the Russian Federation are not enforceable in the Russian Federation”. But for each case, a decision of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation was necessary.

[5] GRECO (Group of States Against Corruption) is an international organization founded by the Council of Europe in 1999. GRECO establishes anti-corruption requirements for the activities of states and monitors the compliance of practices with these standards. The Group consists of 50 states. Monitoring by GRECO allow to put pressure on national authorities working in this sphere.

[6] Vertuhais (turnkeys) — in criminal slang — are guards and warders in prisons and camps.

About the Authors:
Volodymyr Shevchenko, the former aide to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Doctor of Philosophy
Andrii Savarets, Chairman of the Center for Digital Economy Development, Lawyer

Read the full article in the next issue of the “BINTEL” Journal

 

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