Exclusively by “Borysfen Intel”
Volodymyr Shevchenko
Andrii Savarets
Beginning of the Analysis
Brief Conclusions from the Previous Parts of the Study
After eight months of full-scale continental war in the center of Europe, its reasons, real goals and objectives remain a mystery.
If you do not take into account frankly delusional versions such as “Help of the fraternal peoples of the DPR and LPR”, “Fight against Ukrainian and world fascism and satanism” and “Prevention of NATO’s enlargement to the borders of the Russian Federation”, today there are two main versions: Putin and his environment’s inadequacy, and the complete degradation of a rotten corrupt authoritarian state system, which does not withstand a stress test in the form of a full-scale war, also unleashed by it.
In the previous parts of our study, we suggested that, despite the presence of these components in the realities of the life of the modern Russian Federation, they are not decisive, and these versions serve as a pragmatic goal — to reliably hide the third version.
Briefly — its essence, which seems the most reasoned to the authors:
- inside the Russian Federation, a powerful mechanism is actively working, which is interested in removing from power the most part of the existing economic and political elite from the three centers of power, namely: the military, regional elites and oligarchs;
- the aim of the process is to establish a monopoly undivided power of only one power group — special services, which, contrary to the popular myth, do not have the full power in the Russian Federation due to the existence of the above-mentioned alternative centers of power;
- at this, the political structure of the Russian Federation will inevitably be subject to radical transformation with the establishment of a regime that is close to the German regime of the 1930s (that is, the fascist state of the classical type);
- such large-scale transformations in such a huge country as the Russian Federation, as shown by its historical experience, are possible only through a strong revolutionary shock;
- a prerequisite for creating a revolutionary situation in the Russian Federation and transforming power is its military defeat, a deep economic crisis and the collapse of old system-forming myths;
- unlike the previous historical periods, when it was necessary to wait for the maturation of the relevant conditions, modern technologies allow to create the required social moods, which is one of the professional tools actively used by Russian special services.
That is why on January 9, 2022, the Russian Federation put forward an impossible for fulfillment ultimatum to the West and NATO, which did not leave the Russian Federation itself a proper way out of the situation. That is, the process of conscious and purposeful transformation of the Russian Federation began on January 9, 2022.
Then followed a suicidal act of full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which every day is aggravated by a insane way of conducting this war on the part of the Russian Federation (even from the point of view of ordinary common sense), as well as outwardly crazy behavior of all power structures without exception in this war.
It was previously said that it is not too difficult to predict the further behavior of the Putin regime: one needs to choose the most destructive strategic decision for the Russian Federation, and it is exactly that decision that Russian authorities will be implementing with amazing perseverance.
Simple logic suggested that the next decisions would be a declaration of the maximum possible mobilization under the guise of “partial” one, conducting sham referenda in the seized territories, as well as an annexation of territories of four Ukrainian regions, only partially occupied by the RF Armed Forces, with the introduction of appropriate amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation. The next step suggests introduction of martial law on part of the territories, primarily annexed ones.
It should be noted that the Russian authorities did not invent anything that would violate the logic of such an open-demonstrative “madness” and announced the mobilization and support of sham referenda (as a forerunner of further annexation) within one day. And a little later, — martial law not only in the annexed territories, but de facto throughout the country.
After that, there were a number of events that find their most logical explanation precisely within the framework of the third version, namely, the existence in the RF itself of a systematically implemented plan for bringing it to the revolution.
So…
Mobilization. What Tasks Does It Perform?
Officially, mobilization is designed to radically turn the course of the war in Russia’s favor.
A month after its beginning, no serious expert or a specialized analytical institution in the world sees the possibility of mobilization to achieve the declared goal.
Instead, we see that mobilization (along with all other self-destructive actions of the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation, starting from January 9, 2022), is expectedly achieving its real and outwardly paradoxical goals.
Namely:
The Moment of Announcing Mobilization Is Absolutely Wrong
When:
- almost all the elite units of the Russian army are destroyed and the demoralization of its military is growing;
- a huge amount of modern weapons is lost, which the Russian Federation is not able to reproduce in a short time and in sufficient quantities;
- the quality of military equipment is rapidly deteriorating (from the storage depots urgently are being taken obsolete and uncompetitive models of military equipment, which are in conditionally combat-ready state);
- the so-called SMO is rapidly losing popularity among the people, army and elite circles;
- Ukraine has received NATO’s high-tech weapons, and the new weapons are coming in greater numbers and are increasingly destructive;
- the economy of the Russian Federation (including its defense industry) has begun to really “sag” under the influence of sanctions.
Mobilization Has Exposed the Social Defenselessness of Mobilized Citizens
Reality has shown that the mobilized are completely defenseless before bureaucratic lawlessness.
The mobilized can be robbed, humiliated, deceived. There is no responsibility for this. There is no one to complain to. Numerous violations of the rights of the mobilized (we know that for the Russian Federation “violation of rights” sounds wildly) put them in the position of half-slaves.
The authorities (and personally Putin) are extremely unsuccessfully trying to present this as “excesses on the ground”, but with heir actions they only encourage the initiators of these alleged “excesses”. The most demonstrative example is the career “zigzag” of the military commissar of the Khabarovsk Territory, who was transferred to a similar position to Magadan region for the “lawlessness”, and when the hype in the media was gone, he was returned to his previous position. The signal to the other military commissariats is more than understandable: there is a mobilization plan and it must be fulfilled literally “at any cost”.
Here, a direct analogy with the behavior of the Kremlin is traced, when the guards rank was defiantly granted to a brigade, which committed mass atrocities against civilian population in the city of Bucha.
The military commissars understood the signal correctly and are “grabbing” everyone. At this, nothing matters: the health condition (more than 20 mobilized have already died in the process of mobilization), the age, gender, presence of minor children, the job for a critical infrastructure. Metro workers, surgeons are mobilized, and in Ufa the plane could not fly to Antalya, because the second pilot was mobilized right on board, having been forcibly pulled out of the cab.
Additional Discrediting of the Leadership of the Army and the State As a System of Efficient Institutions
According to the Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, mobilization in a number of military districts faced organizational and technical difficulties and resource failure, that is, there is an inability of the system to “handle” — to form, train, equip, arm, etc. — a significant number of the mobilized.
This situation is absolutely logical and predicted in advance, given the complete devastation in the corresponding infrastructure.
Russian governors already write about this.
Roman Starovoit, Governor of Kursk region: “I have visited all military units where our mobilized ones are now. I wonder how the current training base of the Ministry of Defense can be in this state. A ruined dining room, broken and rusty showers, lack of beds, and the existing ones are killed. Shortage of uniforms, the training ground like after bombardment, etc, etc.’
It turns out that in this sphere too (in addition to all others), the Russian army for decades has been engaged in spending enormous budgets, eye-washing and creation of fake images of combat readiness.
In reality, the opposite process has been taking place: military universities have been closing, educational infrastructure has been destroyed, the material and technical base has been looted.
Since mobilization is a task not so much of the military department, as of the entire structure of the state’s government, it additionally showed all the vices of the state management in the Russian Federation, that are fundamentally unrecoverable with the current system of government in the Russian Federation, led by its current leader.
Accelerated Creation of National and Regional (Potentially Separatist) Armies
The Russian central government ordered regional leaders not only to create national volunteer battalions, but also to control the mobilization in general in their regions.
That is, in fact, national battalions are being created, which are listed in the Russian army, but in fact, they owe their monetary and material support to a particular regional leader.
The Kremlin with its own hands is creating regional pocket armies. Whom will they obey to in case of turmoil? The answer is obvious.
Mass Fear
“Mobilization is a death lottery. Everyone should now live in eternal fear to pull out the wrong straw. Everyone should dread answering calls from unfamiliar numbers, fear leaving the house and be afraid of a knock on the door.
Because the state may be at the door and on the other side of the wire, and it calls you to order you to die. And you will have to die.
Out of horror before death, first obedience will be born to this monster, and then — religious awe to him.
Non-system, illogicality, inevitability of the call turns it into a fate, which one cannot oppose, which one can only obey. One can’t bargain with the monster-state, one can only say prayers.
The death lottery worked perfectly in Stalin’s times, and she begins her harvest now”. An accurate depicting of the essence of the mobilization and the state of an ordinary Russian citizen in the words of the Russian writer and journalist, “foreign agent” D. Glukhovsky.
There may be total fear — this is the most important from the point of view of creating a revolutionary situation in which, as you know, “the tops cannot, and the bottoms no longer want” to put up with the situation. Mass fear is the basis for awakening in the society of all negative subconscious instincts.
While mobilization was voluntary, it did not give rise to any mass fear, and could not give rise to it in principle. No matter how many death certificates came from the front. There could, theoretically, be a million, two or more. Those who went and returned in a bag or cripple — did it consciously, for money, understanding the consequences. It was a voluntary choice that does not affect the rest in any way.
A person who did not want to serve in the army and his family members perfectly understood that they were protected from the world of death and disability by their non-participation in all that.
All of a sudden, in an instant, everything changed radically. The barrier between the ordinary world and the world of death collapsed and instilled fear in those who were not ready to die for money and/or for obscure and constantly changing goals. And this is the vast majority of Russian citizens.
Damage to the Economic Stability of the State and a Decrease in the Standard of Living of the People
It was mass fear that gave rise to the mass emigration of a productive class and launched a chain of other extremely negative consequences.
According to Forbes Russia, more than 700 thousand people have left the Russian Federation since the announcement of mobilization.
Most experts are more careful and say: more than 500 thousand.
The middle class is leaving, the most productive in economic terms.
The leaving are selling property (cars, apartments) nearly for nothing, trying to get at least some money for the arrangement of a new life.
Besides, the mass departure of an educated, creative and productive class makes impossible even theoretical construction of a liberal society impossible. Or even a crazy mixture of wild capitalism with fascism — as now. Only classic fascism remains.
There is a indicative moment in this “great exodus”. The fact that more than 60 thousand Jews leave Russia (already 25 thousand have left and another 35 thousand have submitted applications for repatriation) confirms our forecast that Russia is rapidly moving towards transformation into a classic fascist state.
This is understood even by Russian communists, who faithfully and truly for several decades served the existing regime. According to the analysts of the Communist Party, the political regime is increasingly pupating and begins to openly use right-conservative ideology. The State Duma Deputy from the Communist Party S. Obukhov writes that the closest scenario, in the opinion of the Communists, can only be a kind of “hybrid of North Korea, Iran, corporativist practices from the times of B. Mussolini’s Italy and F. Franco’s Spain” (he did not dare to speak about the practices from the times of Stalin and the CPSU’s USSR and Hitler’s Germany).
How does the leadership of the Russian Federation counteract the process of the exodus of the productive class? As always, — outwardly in a paradoxical way.
One minute spreading statements about additional waves of mobilization, the other minute refuting this information, and thus adding to the panic.
Now they the summons are being massively handed for the conscripts in Moscow and St. Petersburg, which previously were not touched by the “SMO”. These two cities have the highest concentration of the middle class.
Besides, the authorities have not closed the borders for the conscripts leaving the Russian Federation, so the figure of forced emigrants is constantly growing and may well reach a million or more.
The authorities have not made any, even the slightest, attempts to administratively complicate the withdrawal of capital abroad. On the contrary, there are now mechanisms that facilitate the withdrawal of capital from the Russian Federation. And capital takes advantage of this opportunity to the full.
For example, on October 15, 2022, Putin allowed the Bank of Russia to give permits for the export of cash foreign currency from the Russian Federation in the amount of more than 10 thousand dollars. He also withdrew a number of international financial organizations from the ban on foreign exchange operations, including BRICS Bank.
The middle class’ mass leaving is undermining the economic stability of the state and decreasing the people’s standard of living.
It was the middle class who bought apartments, cars, electronics, exquisite food, branded clothes, expensive alcohol, used entertainment infrastructure and so on. Its radical decrease entails the “sagging” of the consumer market, and as a result, a decrease in value added tax and excise taxes.
If we take into consideration that over the past 8 months, a picture of consumption in the Russian Federation has already changed dramatically (the demand for non-food goods has sharply fallen: from clothing to electronics), against the background of the drop in the oil and gas sector (including export duties), the federal budget will not just sag — there is an expanding hole there.
Mobilization kills small business. That is, it kills the self-employed, independent of the budget. All small businesses fell under the blow: shops, cafes, car repair shops, car washes, builders, dry cleaners, equipment repair. According to some estimates, more than 500 thousand people have been fired from the advertising industry.
This is, against the background of the fact that the closure of global companies produced the domino effect — there collapsed small firms, one way or another tied to “globals”. Another million or so of people have been fired.
By the end of November 2022, 10 million inhabitants of the Russian Federation are believed to be on the verge of poverty.
Mass Fear Gives Rise to Mass Discontent. A Protest Class Is Created — Poorly Predictable and Armed
In addition to removing a productive class from the economy, mobilization effectively forms protest moods. Not trained, without uniforms, on outdated equipment, the mobilized already massively become victims of war against the Ukrainian army, equipped with modern high-tech NATO’s weapons. Relatives of the mobilized increasingly realize this.
In the hands of hundreds of thousands of the mobilized (among which a significant part are convinced criminals) there is a lot of automatic weapons.
So far, this potentially explosive mass is restrained by financial benefits, a repressive apparatus and anti-retreat units. And it is more or less controlled. But the moment the situation, at least partially, gets out of control, the sympathy of the people will definitely not be on the side of the authorities, anti-retreat units or the Russian Guard.
By the way, in the regional budgets there is no expenditure article on defense (in fact — on the offensive) — it is the prerogative of the federal budget. Nevertheless, the Government of the Russian Federation decided to shift a significant part of the expenses related to mobilization to them.
Now the local executives cut social payments and medical care to the population, and this does not contribute to the growth of the popularity of either central or regional authorities.
The authorities of the Russian Federation are arming a poorly controlled crowd, thus creating prerequisites for immersing the country in chaos.
Doesn’t the Kremlin understand this?
According to the third version — it does! Moreover, it makes maximum efforts to bring the situation to the absurd.
In the conclusion of the chapter on mobilization, it should be emphasized that the most ardent supporter and the most active propagandist of mass (under the guise of partial) mobilization was and remains untouchable for the repressions Strelkov-Girkin. The current Colonel of the FSB with the most powerful “roof” in the Russian Federation.
It is important to remember that the provocation is a favorite and extremely effective method of the ChK-NKVD-MGB-KGB-FSB, which they have brought to perfection over the past century.
* * *
Not less destructive for the country and looking to the rest of the world as absolute “madness”, are unique “referenda” in temporarily captured territories affected by active hostilities, with their subsequent annexation and inclusion in the legislative field of the Russian Federation.
Annexation
Simultaneously with the mobilization, on September 21, 2022, Putin announced that Russia would support the “decision on the future, which will be made by most residents of Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions”. And on September 30, he signed agreements on the inclusion of new territories in Russia.
Having annexed the occupied territories, Russia opened a real Pandora box.
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* Secession is disintegration from the state (usually federal) of any part of it (usually a subject of the federation) |
After all, the Constitution of the Russian Federation does not imply the procedure of secession [*], but on the other hand, it does not prohibit it.
That is, if the Armed Forces of Ukraine take back any village, which, according to the new legislation of the Russian Federation, will already be Russian, then a logical question arises — Liman, Kupyansk, the village of Shevchenkovo or Kherson can be returned, then the Kuril Islands all the way to Sakhalin can be returned too.
Putin is known to have said: “The borders of Russia do not end anywhere”. But proceeding from this, they cannot begin anywhere. And in general, this means that the issue of Russian borders is open.
With the annexation, of which really “there are no analogues”, the Russian Federation desacralized its own borders, despising their inviolability.
Moreover, it hung the question in the air — what about new territories, are they also “original” by status or not? Is a “sacred war” needed for Liman lost on the same day, or not? After all, purely legally — Liman and Krasnodar are the same.
The annexation of foreign territories on which active hostilities are continued with their inclusion in the legislative field is an extremely effective step for the disintegration of the Russian Federation.
In fact, the psychological boundaries of their own territory disappear in the minds of citizens.
Such a unique step in its “madness” caused a completely predicted reaction of the world community.
But for such a reaction to be 100 percent guaranteed, two more important and interconnected events have taken place. Namely — an explosion on the Crimean bridge and a missile terror on infrastructure facilities.
Explosion on the Crimean Bridge
In the morning of October 8, 2022, there was an explosion on the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge.
At this, the explosion on the automobile section of the bridge occurred at the moment when the train with tank cars stopped (for some reason) on the railway section of the bridge.
Even according to the Investigation Committee of the Russian Federation, sabotage has a significant number of very difficult for the execution components, even if to analyze each of them separately. And their accurate assemble in a single scheme, precisely synchronized in time, represents an almost insoluble task for any external force. But not for a very influential internal one.
Nevertheless, on October 9, Putin stated that it was the responsibility of the Ukrainian special services. At this, so far not a single evidence has been provided.
At the same time, there is an almost complete consensus among the international expert community that such a strike is impossible without a conspiracy within the Russian Federation itself.
The Crimean Bridge is the most important modern symbol of imperial power and the greatness of the Russian Federation and Putin himself.
Blowing the bridge had a unique destructive effect at the symbolic level on the perception of the strength of the Russian army, the Russian state and its leader both in the world and among the citizens of the Russian Federation.
Missile Terror
The Russian military-political leadership used this alleged “terrorist attack of the Ukrainian special services” to start a missile terror on infrastructure facilities, which they present as an act of retaliation for the blowing up the Crimean Bridge.
On October 10, 2022, Ukraine was subjected to fierce missile attack, the most large-scale one since February 24.
At this, only the objects of energy infrastructure and residential buildings were hit, which led to numerous victims among civilians and damage to 30 percent of Ukrainian energy objects.
None of the military facilities was a target.
From the point of view of law, this is pure terror.
As a result, at the quite predicted emotional peak of indignation by annexation and terror, on October 12, 2022, the UN General Assembly by the vast majority of votes adopted a resolution condemning the annexation by the Russian Federation of four Ukrainian regions.
143 countries voted for the resolution, five countries (Russia, Belarus, DPRK, Nicaragua and Syria) — against, 35 — abstained.
It was a catastrophic diplomatic defeat of the Russian Federation. Complete international isolation. We should add — absolutely predicted.
Nothing of the kind happened to the Russian Federation for 31 years of its existence.
On October 13, 2022, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe voted for the resolution, which calls to declare the current Russian regime as a “terrorist one”. 99 MPs voted “for”, one abstained.
The main points of the resolution:
- the current Russian regime is a terrorist one. This is a powerful signal of a global scale, and this is another step for the Russian Federation to be recognized as a sponsor of terrorism;
- for the first time in history, the Council of Europe said that Ukraine should be given weapons. That is, air defense systems to protect the civilian population;
- the Assembly should look into the issue of the seat of the Russian Federation in the United Nations Security Council (there are no legal grounds why it is there);
- a call for the soonest establishment of a Special (ad hoc) International Tribunal to prosecute the crime of aggression against Ukraine.
On October 15, 2022, the 145th Assembly of the Inter-Parliamentary Union adopted the resolution in which the Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is sharply condemned.
It is reported that parliamentarians from 119 countries unanimously adopted a document that gives a clear assessment of the war, unleashed by the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
The US Congress will also consider draft resolutions H.Res.1205 “Recognizing Russian actions in Ukraine as a genocide” and H.R.8568 “Russia is a State Sponsor of Terrorism Act”.
Moreover, Putin has achieved unprecedented support of Ukraine in military terms.
Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov has reported the preliminary results of Rammstein-6:
- France will transfer to Ukraine 6 CAESAR self-propelled howitzers, 16 TRF1 towed howitzers, 3 LRU systems (Lance Roquette Unitaire — modernization of the MLRS);
- President of France has also announced the transfer of anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine. They will shoot down low-flying targets like drones and cruise missiles;
- Lithuania has announced the supply of mortars on the M113 platform, as well as various equipment for the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
- Canada will transfer to Ukraine military assistance worth $47 million. The package will include 500 thousand sets of winter uniforms, and artillery shells for $15.2 million, as well as providing satellite communications for $2 million;
- Germany, in a joint project with Denmark and Norway, has announced the transfer of 16 Zuzana self -propelled howitzers;
- Spain has already handed over to Ukraine four HAWK air defense systems;
- the German Ministry of Defense has reported that Germany is handing over to Ukraine the first of the four IRIS-T SLM air defense systems.
As for Martial Law
Martial law is a logical continuation of the annexation and mobilization. It is the third element, and it performs two main functions:
- Legitimization of the war on the territory of Russia. Once they wrote Kherson region into the RF’s Constitution, they will receive a war in the Russian Federation.
Moreover, (not counting a small part of Kharkov region), the war from the point of view of the Russian legislation is taking place ONLY on the territory of the Russian Federation.
As Girkin told them, “the war will roll across Russia”. No sooner said than done!
- Accustoming the consciousness of Russians to war and hostilities. Now (along with mobilization) the war came to them into each house.
If de jure Kherson region and the Krasnodar Territory are equivalent, then why can’t the war come to Krasnodar?
Creation of coordination headquarters in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation is also interesting. For 20 years, the Kremlin had been trying by all means to limit the power of the governors. And suddenly — bam! Here you have extraordinary powers!
Along with the annexations of the “new” territories, blurring of the concept of state borders and creation of the national battalions, this is another step towards creating conditions for separatism in the regions.
Conclusions
- Given the foregoing in this, as well as previous chapters of the study, we can agree with the opinion of our most consistent enemies — representatives of the most radical “hawks” both among the military of the Russian Federation and among various leaders (usually middle level ones), when they declare that the very fact of the Invasion and especially the nature of the war are hardly the result of the degradation and incompetence of the Russian elite. According to them, “incompetence has its limits. Here we observe obvious betrayal, rooted at the very top of the Kremlin hierarchy”.
- If this view of the Russian-Ukrainian war is correct, we are dealing with an option, much worse for Ukraine and for the world, than with the result of the sudden madness of the Kremlin elite or with chaotic actions of thieves’ morally and intellectually degrading military-political elites.
- In this case, we are dealing with the consciously and professionally created Moloch of war, who is climbing up the stairs made of hundreds of thousands of corpses (his own and his enemy’s, which is absolutely not important for him) to the top of power to his old dream — to establish (most likely no longer on 1/7, but already on 1/8 of the land) a classic fascist state, with limitless power of war criminals.
This option leaves only one positive way out for the world — consolidation based on democratic values and maximum comprehensive support to the Ukrainian people in fighting the Absolute Evil.
Otherwise, the defeat of Ukraine in this war would destroy all the rules of international civilized interaction and would launch the processes around the world without the slightest restraint tools, which most probably would end in the death of humanity in the total nuclear conflict of “all against all”.
The defeat of the current regime of the Russian Federation should be complete, otherwise the danger of reformatting of the Russian Federation and formation of the “new Russia” — the fascist state of the classical type with unpredictable consequences would remain.
Mystery of the Bloody MadneZZ. Ideology of the “Great Transition”
| About the Authors: | |
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Volodymyr Shevchenko, ex-Assistant to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Doctor of Philosophy |
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Andrii Savarets, Chairman of the Center for Digital Economy Development, Lawyer |
