The Spread of Instability in the World and the Consequences for Ukraine

Developments around Ukraine, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region are interconnected and interdependent

Ivan Sichen

Another aggravation of the situation in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region is becoming a significant factor in influencing the situation in the world and around Russia’s war against Ukraine. In particular, it is worth mentioning Iran’s and Islamic extremists’ attacks on Israel, the DPRK’s provocations against South Korea, and intensification of China’s military activities around Taiwan. These trends have rather ambiguous consequences for Ukraine, both negative and, to some extent, positive. On the one hand, they distract the world’s attention from Ukraine, but on the other hand, they help consolidate our country’s partners for a joint counteraction to Iran and North Korea, which are actually Russia’s allies. I propose to assess these developments, taking into account all the factors important for Ukraine.

In order to assess the possible consequences of the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region, we need a clear understanding of the reasons for such developments. Today they are associated with a number of factors, including:

• the confrontation between the leading world powers has reached a qualitatively new level, which objectively leads to the actualization of existing and emergence of new problems in all areas of intersection of their interests. First of all, this concerns the confrontation between Russia and the West, which is increasingly moving from the political and economic to the military sphere, as well as interference in the conflict of China, which supports Moscow but pursues its own and independent of Russia goals;
• actions of leading and other countries, as well as political and religious forces that use these problems to pursue their interests, which further complicates the situation. Here it is worth recalling the West’s support for Israel, while Russia supports Iran, its proxies, and other Islamic extremist groups. China is formally neutral, but again is trying to use the situation to its advantage. At the same time, Moscow and Beijing are North Korea’s allies in a joint counteraction to the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. In contrast, Washington is developing allied relations with South Korea, Japan, and Australia.

Taking into consideration the United States’, Russia’ and China’s geopolitical goals and interests in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region, the situation in those regions will continue to be tense and will lead to instability in other regions of the world. For example, intensification of Islamist attacks on Israel may lead to the spread of Islamic extremism in countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, which will create preconditions for the expansion of conflict zones in the Middle East and North Africa. In turn, the aggressive policy of the DPRK and China’s threats to use force to regain control of Taiwan will lead to increased tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.

Such developments will increase the threat of new regional conflicts with a high probability of intervention by the leading world powers, different countries, political and religious forces. This will result in the danger of regional conflicts escalating into larger-scale wars that will undermine the stability of the whole world.

These trends have rather ambiguous consequences for Ukraine. In particular, the following trends are negative for our country:

• diverting the attention of the leading world powers and international organizations from Ukraine, which contributes to Russia’s efforts to achieve its goals in relation to our country. At present, the armed confrontation in the Middle East and the threat of new wars on the Korean Peninsula and around Taiwan have become no less relevant to the international community than Russia’s war against Ukraine;
• weakening the UN’s effectiveness and undermining NATO’s unity. For example, the UN Security Council has withdrawn itself from resolving security problems in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific region due to fundamental differences between UN member states. At the same time, the conflict in the Middle East has caused disagreements among NATO member states. Thus, the most of the Western members of the Alliance supports Israel, while Turkey accused it of “aggression against Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority”.
• dispersion of efforts and resources of the United States, which is forced to provide additional assistance and increase the volume of arms supplies to Israel and American partners in the Asia-Pacific region, including at the expense of Ukraine. In addition, the USA is building up its military presence in the Middle East, around the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan, which to some extent weakens its ability to contain Russia on NATO’s southeastern flank and in the northeastern part of the Asia-Pacific region;
• a new wave of refugees to Europe. As before, this leads to complication of the socio-political situation in European countries and causes disagreements between them on asylum and refugee policies. Accordingly, this weakens the unity of the European Union and negatively affects its ability to pursue a common policy in different spheres;

– the growth of world oil prices due to the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. Today, this growth is relatively insignificant, but it still causes concern among global economic players.

The above-mentioned challenges and threats undermine the existing system of collective security in the world and contribute to the victory of totalitarian countries that are trying to impose the principle of “the rule of force over the rule of law” on the world community. This is evidenced by the recent visit of UN Secretary-General António Guterres to the BRICS summit in Russia, while he refused to take part in the Peace Conference on Ukraine in Switzerland in July 2024. It is worth recalling that in early October 2024, Tel Aviv banned Guterres from entering Israel for not condemning Iran’s missile strike on Israel’s territory. In addition, the official Kyiv refused to receive Guterres in Ukraine after his meeting with Putin in Kazan.

The above-mentioned problems and conflicts are provoked and used by Russia and its partners to strengthen their positions in the confrontation with the West and other adversaries, which is directly related to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Thus, the strengthening of allied relations between Moscow and Pyongyang in the context of their confrontation with the Western world resulted in the involvement of North Korean troops in the Russia’s war against Ukraine.

At the same time, the following trends are positive for Ukraine:

• strengthening of the cooperation between Ukraine and the West on the basis of countering common enemies, such as Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Under these circumstances, Ukraine can receive new forms of assistance from its Western partners, including permission to use their weapons to strike targets on the Russian territory;
• weakening of Iran and North Korea as Russia’s allies in the war against Ukraine as a result of new restrictions and sanctions imposed by Western countries;
• deterring other Russia’s supporters from assisting it in the war against Ukraine through the threat of sanctions and restrictions by the United States, the European Union and their partners, as in the case with Iran and North Korea;
• reduction of production capacities of Iran’s military industry as a result of Israel’s strikes. Accordingly, Iran’s ability to produce weapons and supply them to Russia is decreasing;
• reduction of Iran and North Korea’s ability to export arms and military equipment to Russia as a result of the growth of their own military needs due to the intensification of their confrontation with their adversaries. First of all, this concerns the supply of Iranian and North Korean missiles, artillery shells and unmanned aerial vehicles to Russia.

Besides, the involvement of the United States and some other Western countries in repelling Iranian air strikes against Israel sets a precedent for our Western partners to participate in repelling air strikes against Ukraine.

The processes under consideration are dynamic, which also applies to their consequences for Ukraine. However, in any case, they will have a direct impact on the situation around our country and affect its interests.

So, it can be summarized that the escalation of the confrontation between the West and Russia leads to the actualization of existing and emergence of new problems and contradictions in all areas of intersection of their interests. China has some influence on these processes, pursuing its own goals.

Under such circumstances, developments around Ukraine, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region are interconnected and interdependent. At this, the consequences of the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region are both positive and negative for Ukraine. Thus, the Western countries’ growing pressure on Iran and North Korea objectively reduces the ability of Tehran and Pyongyang to support Moscow in its war against Ukraine. At the same time, the crisis in the Middle East and rising tensions in the Asia-Pacific region divert the world’s attention from Russia’s war against Ukraine.

On the one hand, these trends provide additional opportunities for Ukraine to realize its interests, but on the other hand, they create obstacles on this path. This calls for a set of measures aimed at deepening Ukraine’s cooperation with Western partners to jointly counter totalitarian countries that are trying to undermine regional and global stability.