Forecast of the Situation on the Polish-Belarusian Border

The complication of the situation around Belarus is designed to destabilize the situation in both the European Union and Ukraine



Serhiy Polyovyk

The situation with Middle Eastern migrants on the borders between Belarus and the EU member states — Poland and Lithuania — provoked by the Lukashenko regime is getting more complicated with each day coming. It is clear that Moscow is directly involved in this, although it stubbornly denies it, given how the migration crisis may affect, in particular, the situation near the Ukrainian (with Belarus and Russia) border. This is one of the geopolitical tasks of Russia and its European satellites distributed over certain periods of time, which directly concerns Ukraine. This process itself can already be divided into several phases.


Phase 1. Concentration of Forces and Increase of Tension

…The European Union has no experience in counteracting such outright provocations. But something needs to be done about it…

The concentration of thousands of people (in the open air on the eve of the winter season), delivered by planes of the Belarusian airline Belavia and other international companies, clearly provokes a humanitarian catastrophe. The aim is to accuse the EU leadership of neglecting the fate of migrants, about whom Europeans were so concerned not long ago, when the crisis arose after the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan. At this time, Russia is concentrating its troops near the borders with Ukraine and Belarus, and is organizing military exercises with Belarusians, during which it deploys troops in potentially “crisis areas” where, according to Moscow speakers, the EU and NATO’s aggressive actions are probable. And it turns out that the European Union has no experience in counteracting such outright provocations. But something needs to be done about it.

At the request of the EU, Turkish Airlines and the Syrian Cham Wings Airlines suspended the transportation of some “tourists” from Middle Eastern countries to Minsk. But there is a new problem — how to find out the real purpose of travelers to separate real tourists from “Lukashenko’s tourists” who, with the help of Belarusian security forces, find themselves on the border with Poland and Lithuania, holding knives, sticks and weapons. Regarding the latter, A. Lukashenko  states that weapons for migrants come from the Ukrainian Donbas… Remember how the Russian side in 2014 explained that the “DPR/“LPR” militants’ modern, including heavy, weapons appeared as a result of their guerrilla actions, that is, they captured weapons from the warehouses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? So, “Putin’s military shop” began to work under the guise of A. Lukashenko, and migrants have firearms at the border with the EU. It is becoming clear that further explosive actions on this border will be played out by a pre-determined and carefully prepared scenario of the Russian-Belarusian special services, and migrants will have to play the role of a kind of catalyst. As Russia is initiating such hybrid pressure, it, not the passive international community, knows exactly what and when should take place.

…Developments will culminate when weapons are accidentally or not accidentally used on either side of the border…

Developments are likely to culminate when weapons are accidentally or not accidentally used on either side of the border, resulting in casualties. But this does not mean that in the future the tensions on the borders will decline. Because the next active phase will be according to the another scenario and with the next culmination. And already at the peak of events there will be not only migrants seeking to enter the EU, in particular, Germany. Those players who are now behind them will appear on the “stage”.


Phase 2. Attempts to Redirect the Waves of Refugees from the EU Border to Ukraine

…Attempts to redirect the waves of refugees from the EU border to Ukraine may be Russia’s main goal…

This may be Russia’s main goal. Moscow understands that the EU, together with the United States, will find a way to protect European borders and the surrounding areas from the influx of refugees. And sooner or later, they will be taken away either by Belarus, which provoked this chaos, or they will be sent to neighboring Ukraine, where there is no strict control of borders, which in some places run through wooded areas and the Chernobyl zone. And Ukraine is currently staying away from the problem with migrants. The Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council’s emotional speeches cannot determine state policy in this regard. Therefore, Moscow and Minsk have the opportunity to implement the option of accommodating migrants on Ukrainian territory. Such proposals are already voiced in Germany by the SPD, the winning party in the parliamentary elections. By the way, the Social Democrats, whose nominee will be the Federal Chancellor of Germany, have never been against the construction of Nord Stream 2 and have ultimately ignored the threats that will arise for Ukraine and energy security in Europe.

…The EU leadership is in a political coma, waiting for its future…

Of course, the Kremlin’s European puppet agents will join the conflict on the EU’s eastern border. The EU leadership itself will be indecisive, as it is in a political coma, waiting for its future, which depends on powerful players in international politics. And the geopolitical weakness and lack of a strong leader in Germany, the revision of the US role in Europe and the intensification of destructive forces in the EU, represented by the leaders of Poland, Hungary, Italy, etc., will contribute to the Kremlin’s propaganda campaign.

The joint coordinated actions of Russia, Belarus and the “fifth column” in Ukraine will push the issue of accepting migrants on the territory of Ukraine, who will start to get ill and die en masse due to the cold. The EU will demand from Ukraine to create living conditions for the accommodation of migrants on its territory, and will publish a plan to return repatriates to their homeland under EU auspices. Ukraine will be formally provided with material support for the establishment of refugee camps, but in reality Russia will be able to create another source of tension and instability in Ukraine.

…Russia may create another source of tension and instability in Ukraine…

In Ukraine, pro-Moscow politicians and “oppositionists” will also take an active part in such a scheme, the purpose of which is to weaken public administration, provoke chaos and mass riots. Russia’s next step in Ukraine will be to provoke mass riots with human casualties, especially in the border areas with Belarus and Russia. Instability will be presented as “oppression of the rights of the Russian-speaking population and citizens of Russia”, so it is necessary to “protect their constitutional rights”, for example through the Russian and Belarusian armed forces’ “peacekeeping operation” on Ukrainian territory.

Mass disturbances will be picked up in other regions of Ukraine bordering Russia, where there is a practice of illegal issuance of Russian passports to local residents. At this stage, according to Russian calculations, Ukraine’s statehood is being terminated, and thus the Kremlin’s long-term strategic plan is achieved.


Phase 3. Sanctions Against Belarus and Russia

…EU and US sanctions against Belarus and Russia will not let avoid either a humanitarian catastrophe at the border or the problems for Ukraine…

EU and US sanctions against Belarus and Russia will be introduced post factum. This will not let avoid either a humanitarian catastrophe at the border or the problems for Ukraine. The sanctions will be an alternative to the immediate building high fences on the EU’s border with Belarus, but they will not change the intentions of national governments in this regard. European countries will eventually build engineering protection on borders, which will indicate a new confrontation along the Europe-Asia line, the first closest embodiment of which will be the Russian-modified Belarus.

The introduction of a mechanism of effective Western sanctions, given the situation with migrants on the border between Belarus with Poland and Lithuania, is unlikely at all. However, in the signed on August 31, 2021, Strategic Defense Framework for 2021, the United States and Ukraine stated that they intend to work to advance common interests, including the implementation of defence sector and defense industry reforms, deepening cooperation in spheres such as Black Sea security, cyber security, intelligence sharing, and countering Russian aggression. The United States did promise to impose tough sanctions on Moscow in the event of escalating tensions and Russia’s direct invasion of Ukraine.

But reactions to Moscow and Minsk’s hybrid actions, carried out by them in the style of Machiavellian traditions, are not currently envisaged in the sanctions of either the United States or the European Union.

It is also clear that Frontex, the EU’s external border protection agency, has failed in its task. The same can be said of the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, or of his counterparts in EU foreign and security policy in general. EU institutions can no longer cope with the current challenges and threats, openly hostile actions generated in Moscow and broadcast with the help of A. Lukashenko. It is obvious that the European Union in its current form of existence has exhausted itself and needs a radical organizational modernization.


Frontex is an agency of the European Union that deals with the protection of external borders. The Agency is responsible for coordinating the activities of national border services and ensures the security of the borders of EU member states with other countries.

The Agency is headquartered in Warsaw.

In the near future, namely in November–December 2021, we can expect a purposeful transfer of groups of migrants using vehicles from Belarus to the border with Ukraine and breakthroughs of its state border in order to move migrants to Poland across the Ukrainian-Polish border. Recently, official Belarus has been trying to find guides to move “tourist groups” across the land border, in particular through the territory of the radioactive Chernobyl forest, which is forbidden for people to move through.


Phase 4. Use of Military Force by Russia and Belarus

…The next embodiment of the new confrontation along the Europe-Asia line will be the Russian-modified Belarus…

Citing possible fatalities due to the opening of fire or rising tensions as a result of migrants’ attempts to break into the EU, leaders in Minsk and Moscow will  point out the inadmissibility of escalating tensions and, promising to stabilize the situation, will announce their decision to use joint armed forces of Russia and Belarus.

In the UN Security Council, Russia will raise the issue of the immediate introduction of a peacekeeping mission in the region, which it intends to lead and implement. If the initiative is blocked by the UN Security Council, Moscow and Minsk can carry out such an operation without the UN decisions. Belarus will play the role of an auxiliary military component in Russia’s “peacekeeping operation”. The Moscow-Minsk operation will be accompanied by targeted propaganda aimed at the domestic Russian consumer, to a lesser extent at the Belarusian consumer, who is generally indifferent to the actions of the totalitarian government and does not defend his own rights and freedoms.

…Belarus will play the role of an auxiliary military component in Russia’s “peacekeeping operation”…

In order to carry out the “humanitarian mission” and prepare for the deployment of a local military task force, the deploying of joint VDV and special forces’ units of Belarus and Russia will be carried out directly near Belarus’ borders with Poland and Lithuania. They will be supported by the frontal aviation of the Russian Armed Forces, which will not cross the state border of the EU and NATO. The air defense and air forces of Russia will be placed on “High Alert”, and a march to the border of military, logistics, and technical support units previously deployed in the border regions will be carried out. A task force will be created in the form of a reinforced brigade with the task to increase tensions, show the presence of Russian troops on the border with the EU and thus to put pressure on negotiations with the European Union, especially Poland and Lithuania.

The conflict ends on the following terms: either the expulsion of migrants gathered at the border into the EU, or the creation of a temporary enclave in neutral territory on the border with Poland and Lithuania. An alternative is to take migrants to Minsk and deport them from Belarus to their countries of origin. Belarus will demand from the EU compensation for financial losses and repayments in case of court decisions initiated by migrants’ advocates.

Consequences: the situation in the EU is destabilized, A. Lukashenko is legitimized as a subject of the negotiation process at the EU level, and Moscow’s influence on him becomes limitless.

* * * * *

…The complication of the situation around Belarus is designed to destabilize the situation in both the European Union and Ukraine…

The situation in the border areas of Belarus with the EU continues to worsen. There is no doubt that this is due to the coordinated actions of V. Putin and his Belarusian puppet A. Lukashenko. Both authoritarian rulers have joined forces to achieve both goals. Russian President is persistently trying to implement his plan to eliminate Ukraine, the European Union/NATO and destroy European values, implementing his multilevel plan of aggressive actions. Its individual parts are interconnected, supplemented and modified depending on the situation in the international arena. Putin’s plans envisage both characteristic active operations such as demonstrating force to the United States and the West, in particular within the framework of the “West 2021” strategic exercise conducted in 2021, and intellectual operations of individual influence on specific politicians and leaders. The complication of the situation around Belarus and on the eastern flank of the EU is designed to destabilize the situation in both the EU and Ukraine.

Given the problems of forming a new ruling coalition of Germany and the dominance of the Social Democratic Party in it with leftist views and pro-Moscow “habits”, one can hardly hope that Berlin will radically change its course in favor of Kyiv. The SPD leader and the new Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and other leaders of the ruling coalition, including the leaders of the Free Democratic Party and the Greens, are unable to radically influence Germany’s current foreign and domestic policy. Because it is totally influenced by financial-industrial groups of Germany itself, the EU, China and other global players.

…There are no signs of changes or transformations in Russia’s foreign policy…

One of such negative geopolitical actors is Russia, with its lifelong leader V. Putin, who, despite the objective circumstances and the inevitable disintegration and degradation of today’s Russia, seeks ways to preserve himself at the helm. There are no signs of changes or transformations in Russia’s foreign policy. The state’s economic strength and international business using Russia’s natural resources allow V. Putin to pursue his imperial policy toward the Russian people and the countries of the world within the limits that determine his personal physical existence.

Characteristic features of such Putin’s style of government are the following: contempt for any international authorities; desire to be able to totally control the people of the state and to suppress the slightest sign of democratic freedoms; obtaining financial benefits from relations, in particular with China; attempts to destroy the democratic values of the West. Ukraine remains on Moscow’s list of priorities, which include its control and liquidation.

…Moscow, like 500 years ago, accepts only one argument — a powerful force…

The actions of the international community led by the United States to suppress Russia’s aggressive intentions include delineating the limits of what is permissible for V. Putin and his environment, the intersection of which guarantees irreparable losses for the entire system of Russian power. Such limits are obviously already determined. They were brought to the attention of the Kremlin and duly influenced its international behavior. So far, V. Putin has limited himself to hybrid and other types of remote influence on adversaries, consistently and arbitrarily destabilizing the international situation. On all continents of the world, the Kremlin continues its destructive actions to seize, subdue and preserve key positions (or their remnants, as in the case of China).

Moscow, like 500 years ago, accepts only one argument — a powerful force that is more powerful than its own force. This attitude of Moscow to the world will not change as long as it exists or disintegrates into separate independent parts.


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