Between Two Hotbeds: Problems of Moldova and Interests of Ukraine

If Moscow achieves its goals, Ukraine will find itself between two burning conflicts — in the Donbas and in Moldova

 

 

 

Ivan Sichen

The current situation in Moldova today, in one way or another, directly affects Ukraine. This was recently discussed in the article “Ukraine and Moldova: Geopolitical Perspectives. Partners and Allies in the Post-Soviet Space”. After all, Moldova is a partner of our country in the political, economic and security spheres (in the confrontation with Russia included), a “gateway” to South-Eastern Europe, a regional transport hub and a market for Ukrainian industrial goods.

…Moldova may plunge into political chaos, which will definitely affect Ukraine…

Recently, the Moldovan issue has become particularly relevant, due to the current political crisis in Moldova, which arose during the transformation of power after the presidential election last December against the background of the struggle between pro-European and pro-Russian forces. The prospects for Moldova’s European development depend on the consequences of this confrontation. If the consequences are negative, the country will plunge into political chaos. And Ukraine will definitely be affected by it. Primarily near its southwestern border…

Therefore, we’ll analyze such forecasts more specifically.

 

The reason for the political crisis in Moldova was the efforts of the previous President, the leader of the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova I. Dodon, to level the victory in the presidential election of M. Sandu — a representative of the pro-European Action and Solidarity Party.

To this end, I. Dodon uses peculiarities of the system of state power of Moldova, which, in fact, is a parliamentary-presidential republic. After all, it is the control over the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova that allows to control the government of the country to a large extent. This factor was once used by the pro-European majority in the Moldovan Parliament against I. Dodon himself. In particular, the pro-European majority effectively controlled the Constitutional Court and the Moldovan government, which allowed it to temporarily suspend Dodon’s presidency in making critical decisions in favor of Russia.

Given this situation and with the support of Moscow, I. Dodon took a number of steps and strengthened his position in the country’s Parliament. Thus, the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova united in a coalition with the Sor Party (leader — Moldovan politician and businessman I. Shor, accused of corruption in a particularly large scale; now — in Israel), and also gained support of some MPs, which allowed it to create a parliamentary majority.

I. Dodon used to demand I. Shor’s extradition, but now he has got united with his party

As a result, I. Dodon got the opportunity, at least, to block M.Sandu’s work according to the above-mentioned scheme, and at most — to start the procedure of her impeachment. However, the latter is mostly a hypothetical possibility, because it provides for a referendum, which is unlikely to be successful for I. Dodon, as M. Sandu is extremely popular in Moldova, which allows her to oppose him fiercely. And the rapid decline in the authority of the Moldovan Parliament due to the complete unprincipledness of a large number of its members, including I. Dodon himself, also works in favor of M. Sandu (by the way, I. Dodon used to demand Shor’s extradition and his criminal prosecution, but later got united with his party).

Based on such calculations, M. Sandu relies on the “reset” of the highest legislative body of the country, which is allowed by Moldovan law. Thus, according to the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova, the President has the right to dissolve the Parliament and call early parliamentary elections in two cases, namely: if parliamentarians fail to form a government or block the adoption of laws within two months; if the Parliament rejects the proposed composition of the government at least twice within 45 days after the submission of the relevant proposal.

As part of this approach in January this year. M. Sandu nominated the former Finance Minister N. Gavrilita, for the post of Prime Minister. As planned by M. Sandu, such a candidacy in the Parliament was opposed not only by her opponents, but also by those who were considered her supporters. Despite this, M. Sandu refused to nominate another candidate, which created a formal basis for a possible dissolution of the Parliament.

President of the Republic of Moldova M. Sandu and the candidate for the post of the Prime Minister N. Gavrilita

In response, I. Dodon challenged the actions of M. Sandu in the Constitutional Court of Moldova. This Court is currently under the control of the new parliamentary majority, so it quite expectedly declared her actions allegedly unconstitutional. At the same time, neither the Moldovan Parliament nor the mentioned Court have real levers of influence on M. Sandu in this matter. All this gave her the opportunity to announce the decision to dissolve the Parliament on March 23, 2021, that is, three months after the resignation of the government (officially lost power after the presidential election).

Note:

According to opinion polls, the results of early parliamentary elections may allow pro-European parties to restore a majority in the country’s parliament. In particular, M. Sandu’s Action and Solidarity Party can win 43 %, or 48 seats in the 101-seat Parliament; the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova — 32 %, or 36 seats; Sor Party — 9.9 %, or 11 seats; pro-European Dignity and Truth Platform Party — 5.2 %, or 6 seats.

Other parties and movements will not be able to overcome the 5 % barrier.

However, M. Sandu’s decision to hold early parliamentary elections and favorable public sentiment do not guarantee a complete victory of pro-European forces in Moldova. And, even more, in the near future the situation there may become even more complicated.

For example, I. Dodon together with his supporters from the Parliament will try to harm M. Sandu’s plans, and she, accordingly, can mobilize her own electorate for mass protests against the same I. Dodon, PSRM and his other allies. At this, based on the experience of previous revolutionary events in Moldova, such actions can turn into chaos, clashes between supporters of different political forces, seizure of government buildings and so on. At the same time, separatists from different regions of Moldova will be up to every move in the game. Especially since some of them support I. Dodon and PSRM.

 

…Russia can take advantage of the political chaos in Moldova in order to finally disintegrate the country and take control of its regions…

As before, Russia will hasten to take advantage of this situation in order to finally disintegrate Moldova and take control of its regions. Therefore, the Russians will provide assistance to I. Dodon, other leftist, pro-Russian and separatist forces, and will influence the situation through local criminal and political-oligarchic forces.

Given its interests in the region, as part of such actions, Moscow will not stop even before provoking another escalation of the Transdniestrian conflict, as well as new conflicts in other Moldovan regions. In particular, against the background of the complication of the situation in Moldova since mid-February this year, the training and combat activities of the Task Force of the Russian troops in the Transdniestria got intensified considerably. Various trainings take place virtually daily with combat shootings, marches on armored vehicles, offensive and defensive operations, as well as counter-terrorism trainings.

Such a policy of Russia will become even more active if M. Sandu manages to hold early parliamentary elections and pro-European forces win. Then M. Sandu’s position will be undermined by destabilizing the situation in Moldova and creating problems for the work of the Moldovan economy.

 

…If Moscow achieves its goals, Ukraine will find itself between two burning conflicts — in the Donbas and in Moldova…

A separate result of Russia’s destructive actions against Moldova will be additional pressure on Ukraine and dispersal of its efforts as a result of another “hot spot” near Ukraine’s borders. If Moscow achieves such goals, Ukraine will find itself between two burning conflicts — in the Donbas and in Moldova. This will greatly complicate the situation of our state. Not to mention the losses for economic cooperation with Moldova and obstacles to the transit of Ukrainian goods through its territory.

This is especially acute for Ukraine in connection with Russia’s de facto disruption of the ceasefire in the Donbas. At this, the nature of Russia’s actions does not exclude the possibility of its preparation for the expansion of the military invasion of Ukraine. Based on Russia’s strategic plans, which are being worked out at the “Caucasus” SCPE, the ultimate goal of such an invasion is to create a land corridor to Crimea and Transdniestria.

Such aggravation of the situation in Moldova is a logical part of Moscow’s above-mentioned plans, which, of course, pose a major threat to Ukraine on the Moldovan direction.

 

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