How Russia Storms the Kharkiv Region

Moscow’s Goals, Reasons for Our Failures, Prospects for the Development of the Situation

Ivan Sichen

In one of the previous articles, we warned about Russia’s intentions to launch a second invasion of the Kharkiv region of Ukraine from the north. Moreover, obvious signs of the preparation of the Russian troops were given, which are of a classic nature and fully correspond to the previous experience of the Russian army. So far, there is no direct threat of capturing Kharkiv or its surroundings, although hostilities are taking place 25 km from the city. In February-March 2022, the situation was worse, but even then the people of Kharkiv stopped the Russian onslaught. However, in May 2024, the Russians managed to occupy a number of Ukrainian villages in the north of Kharkiv region and reach the outskirts of the town of Vovchansk. Therefore, let’s look at the situation near Kharkiv in more detail, especially since it may repeat itself near Sumy, Chernihiv or Kyiv.

As you know, on May 10, 2024, Russian troops began offensive operations from the territory of Belgorod region of the Russian Federation to the north of Kharkiv region of Ukraine. Currently, the Russian offensive has a tactical scale, which excludes the possibility of a strategic breakthrough of the Ukrainian front line. At the same time, the new offensive pursues a number of important goals for Russia, which are quite dangerous for Ukraine. They have already been highlighted by experts, but we will recall them once again. So, Moscow is trying to:

• distract Ukrainian forces from other parts of the front line and bind them in the north of Kharkiv region. This issue is of special importance for the Russian military command due to the lack of decisive successes of the Russian troops in the East and South of Ukraine. In fact, since the beginning of 2024, the enemy managed to capture only Avdiivka and advance several kilometers west of Avdiivka and Bakhmut. The Russian army never managed to achieve a strategic breakthrough of the Ukrainian defense;
• to improve the tactical position of the Russian troops in the northeastern section of the front in Ukraine, with the prospect of creating prerequisites for resolving strategic tasks. One of them is the encirclement of the Ukrainian forces in Kupiansk district in the east of Kharkiv region;
• to create a so-called buffer zone on the Ukrainian border with Belgorod region of the Russian Federation. According to Russian propagandists, this would make shelling of the region by Ukraine impossible. Although, unlike Russia, our troops do not fire on peaceful settlements, but only conduct a counter-battery fire. And it is not our fault that the Russians deploy their missile and artillery systems within the populated settlements, hiding behind the peaceful Russian population;
• to get closer to Kharkiv within the range of field artillery, which would provide an opportunity to intensify the terrorist attacks on the Ukrainian city. At the same time, Russia is currently capable of shelling Kharkiv with the long-range heavy artillery and MLRS, cruise, ballistic and heavy anti-aircraft missiles, guided aerial bombs, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles. However, all of them have a high cost, and their production is limited due to the luck of capabilities of the Russian military industry;
• to destabilize the situation in Ukraine by provoking the flow of refugees from the city of Kharkiv and Kharkiv region. Related to this are attempts to undermine the trust of Ukrainian society in the leadership of our state and the Ukrainian army, their ability to resist Russia;
• to raise the morale of Russian citizens by demonstrating the “successes” of the Russian army. According to the Kremlin, the re-occupation of the Ukrainian territories lost by Russia in the second half of 2022 would be a significant factor that would contribute to the achievement of this goal.

Unfortunately, Moscow did make some progress in implementing these plans.
Source: France 24

Unfortunately, Moscow did make some progress in implementing these plans. Thus, the Russian forces managed to capture a number of settlements in the north of Kharkiv region and expand the so-called gray zone. The further advance of Russian troops in the south-eastern direction can really threaten the encirclement of the Ukrainian troops near Kupiansk. In view of this, the Ukrainian military command is forced to start transferring existing reserves to the north of Kharkiv region, as a result of which the possibility of their use in other directions is lost.

The invasion of the Russian troops into Kharkiv region has led to the need to evacuate residents of some Ukrainian border regions. Most of them are transferred to Kharkiv, which requires the creation of new points for temporary accommodation of people and additional funds for their operation. From Kharkiv, local residents and refugees move to other regions of Ukraine, which objectively leads to the complication of social problems there. The Russians are aware of this and are making all possible efforts to aggravate the situation with refugees. Hence systematic strikes on Kharkiv and Kharkiv region. Ukrainian cities in Sumy region have also become objects of constant attacks by the Russian forces, which are preparing for an invasion of Sumy region as well.

Some successes of the Russian troops in Kharkiv region really harm the authority of the leadership of Ukraine and our military command. In the information space of Ukraine, Russian narratives about “treason, corruption and incompetence” are spreading, which raise quite valid questions in Ukrainian society. The most important of the mentioned questions is why the Ukrainian troops could not hold their positions in the north of Kharkiv region, although the enemy’s plans for a new invasion were already known. The unpreparedness of the Ukrainian forces to deter the enemy, the unsatisfactory state of engineering fortifications and minefields in the border zone, the quality of decision-making by the military command, the lack of proper interaction between different units of the Ukrainian forces, etc. are subject to criticism.

At this, it should be noted that all the mentioned questions are used in Russia’s information and propaganda special operations, which are also carried out through the Ukrainian media, and more precisely — through venal or just incompetent journalists and editors. The propensity of some of them for sensationalism and loud headlines that have nothing to do with reality has already been discussed in Ukraine at various levels more than once.

Prompt resolution of the mentioned issues is the only way to strengthen the defense capabilities of our state and prevent the problems that were observed before and may recur now. Thus, the similarity of the current situation with the development of events at the beginning of a full-scale invasion in February 2022 attracts attention. Of course, now the enemy will not be able to break through to Kharkiv “in one day”. The new offensive of the Russians from the northern direction was predicted and was quite obvious, and preparations for it were somehow carried out. Although all the lessons of that time were never learned, as evidenced by the above-mentioned shortcomings during the preparation of the defense in the north of Kharkiv region.

No one really answered for the failures of the Ukrainian defense at the beginning of the full-scale invasion. And this despite the fact that even then Russia’s intentions to attack Ukraine were also quite obvious. However, for some reason, the necessary preparatory measures were never fully taken. Therefore, in the first days of the invasion, the enemy reached Kharkiv and Kyiv, and also managed to seize the Azov territory of Ukraine and part of the Right-Bank Ukraine with Kherson. If the necessary measures had been taken in full, this could have been prevented.

However, the current situation at the front does not give grounds for pessimism. The Russian forces continue active combat operations on the entire front line, including in the north of Kharkiv region, but their pace is gradually slowing down. Ukraine managed to restrain the new Russian offensive. The Kremlin media have already moved from euphoric reports about the “rapid advance of Russian troops” in Kharkiv region to reports that they are already “heroically restraining the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops”.

Russia’s new invasion of Ukraine from the north has caused no less damage to itself than to our state. As a result of Ukrainian strikes on the enemy’s initial deployment positions and reserves, as well as counter-battery fire, the border areas of Belgorod region of the Russian Federation have turned into a territory of complete destruction. At this, Russian anti-aircraft missiles caused much more destruction in Belgorod and Belgorod region with the fragments of their rockets than shelling from Ukraine. Fallen Russian ballistic and cruise missiles as well as bombs from Russian tactical aircrafts in the border areas had an even greater effect, which first of all affects, again, Belgorod region. Only a few days after May 10, 2024, more than 20 civilians were killed there and about 40 more were injured. Districts of Kursk region of the Russian Federation adjacent to Ukraine, from where the invasion of Sumy region is being prepared, are also turning into a zone of hostilities. Our intelligence recognizes a threat of the invasion of Sumy region, and Ukrainian forces are preparing for it.

In general, the given circumstances allow us to draw some conclusions.

Firstly, Russia is going all-in and trying to make maximum gains on the front line before new large-scale shipments of military assistance from our Western partners arrive in Ukraine.

Secondly, thanks to the powerful superiority in forces and means over the Ukrainian forces, the Russian troops managed to advance in several important directions. However, such an advance is tactical in nature and does not allow the Russian troops to achieve a strategic breakthrough of the front line.

Thirdly, some miscalculations of the Ukrainian military command contribute to Russia’s success. Fortunately, the highly demanded “reset” of the military command is already partially underway.