“There Are All Prerequisites for Our Counteroffensive to Begin” — What the Battle of Bakhmut Means

Ivan Sichen, an expert of the Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel”, for Gazeta.ua

 

The Russian occupiers have been trying to capture Bakhmut in Donetsk region for seven months. Fighting for this city began in August 2022. Over the past two months, the Russians have been trying to encircle Bakhmut. The enemy turned the city into de facto ruins with missiles, aircrafts and artillery. Assault groups of the Russian occupation forces are trying to advance from the outskirts to the center of Bakhmut. At the same time, the Defense Forces of Ukraine are working and destroying them 24/7, said The Commander of the Ground Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi. Gazeta.ua gathered comments from military experts about the situation with Bakhmut and what we should do with this section of the front.

Opinion of foreign analysts

…Russia is actually eliminating potential human resources for offensives and defenses with its own hands…

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released a daily report on March 20, 2023. It says, in particular, that the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbas conducted a localized counterattack south-west of Bakhmut. On March 19, Russian forces conducted 25 attacks in the Bakhmut area, but likely only secured marginal gains.

However, the invaders cannot keep the tactical initiative, because the leadership of the enemy’s army treats its fighters as “cannon fodder”. Russia is actually eliminating potential human resources for offensives and defenses with its own hands. However, even such tactics are enough to create great tension in that sector of the front.

Over the past two months, the Russians have been trying to encircle Bakhmut. The enemy turned the city into de facto ruins.
Source: Getty Images

“Bakhmut Will Withstand. The Invaders Won’t Be Able to Take It”

Ivan Sichen, expert of the Borysfen Intel Center:

…Russia’s offensive is not subject to military strategy, but to political goals…

“The Russians are advancing locally, but they have no tactical and operational success. In some places they are advancing. Bakhmut will withstand, and, apparently, the invaders will not be able to take it. The most important thing for us is to gain time. Our Offensive Guard is being formed. We are now being given equipment and ammunition. And there are all the prerequisites for our counteroffensive to begin.

For two reasons, the Russians throw all their forces at Bakhmut. The first is political, they want to show at least some success at the front. Small villages are being captured. But if they took this city, they would be able to say that they have implemented some of Putin’s plans. Because the deadlines were given to them in the spring. Secondly, they would receive positions to enter Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. However, Bakhmut is quite fortified. And they will not be able to encircle it. Today, Russia’s offensive is not subject to military strategy, but to political goals.

Ivan Sichen: “We must not leave Bakhmut. If we move away, the Russians will continue the offensive further. This will be a tactical victory for the Russians”.
Source: 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade Kholodnyi Yar/Facebook

…We need to win the time for the weapons to reach us…

We must not leave Bakhmut. If we move away, the Russians will continue the offensive further. This will be a tactical victory for the Russians. We have equipped positions that we can hold. Bakhmut is not encircled. The invaders throw tactical groups there that we can fight. We need to win the time for the weapons to reach us. Including tanks that have already begun to arrive. Same Leopards. But it is impossible to form units within three days. It takes several months to prepare personnel, headquarters, support units. We must keep the front in order to be able to form new units and subsequently conduct a counteroffensive. And it will be conducted”.

Petro Chernyk, military analyst, Colonel:

…Putin gave the eighth or ninth order to seize the city. And they can’t…

“There is an endless grinding of enemy manpower and equipment there. Bakhmut has become the routine work of today. It is strategic in military, psychological and political terms. The Russians declared that they would take it either until the New Year or until March. Putin gave the eighth or ninth order to seize the city. And they can’t. This is a serious blow to his vanity. Decisions there are made by living people, with their own shortcomings and values.

In addition, Bakhmut is a strategic point for entering the administrative borders and moving on. And this task has not been canceled. Bakhmut is a height. If they take the city, they will improve the conditions for further offensives. For us, this is also a strategic point. Because then it will be incredibly difficult to recapture the heights.

…This may be the turning point of our offensive…

Bakhmut fulfills its strategic task. Even the Russians are already saying that it is Stalingrad, just the opposite. It was a battle where the best units of the Wehrmacht were eliminated. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union, with the help of the Allies, managed to build up forces for a counterattack. And it became a turning point. In Bakhmut, the situation is the same. And when we reach the climax point (and the pressure has already dropped and will fall every day), this may be the turning point of our offensive. Although if there is a decision to leave it, it will not be a disaster. It is important to win the war. Battles can be lost.

Assault groups of the Russian occupation forces are trying to advance from the outskirts to the center of Bakhmut. At the same time, the Defense Forces of Ukraine are working and destroying them 24/7.
Source: Deep State

Last year we left Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk. And then there was a brilliant counter-offensive operation in Kharkiv region. And even larger in Kherson. There are prospects for a counteroffensive in Bakhmut, but the last decision is up to the General Staff”.

Last week, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that within a few days in the Bakhmut sector, more than 1,100 Russian soldiers were killed and more than 1.500 were wounded. Western officials estimate Russia’s total losses near Bakhmut at 20–30 thousand servicemen.

Author: Anastasiia Prokaieva

Source: Gazeta.ua

The article is available in Russian

 

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