“He Who Digs a Pit for Others, Falls In Himself”

How Russia Found Itself in Its Own “Energy Trap”

 

 

Ivan Sichen

 

Recently, natural gas prices in the world and in Europe have been increasing significantly, for both objective and subjective reasons. This trend is already being actively used by Russia and Gazprom for their political and economic purposes. First of all, it is an attempt to influence the positions of Europe and Ukraine on issues that are important for Russia, as well as to make extra profits from gas exports. This situation threatens Ukraine and the West directly, as in their confrontation with Russia it strengthens the latter’s capabilities. Therefore, the EU is forced to intensify measures to reduce energy dependence on Russia. Especially in the conditions of systemic deterioration of the technical condition of the Russian gas transportation and gas processing infrastructure.

 

Along with the resonant events of a military-political nature, the summer of this year is characterized by changes in the world and European energy markets. In particular, the gas price is rising sharply in Europe, Asia and a number of other regions of the world. Thus, in the EU it has reached the level of almost 500 US dollars per thousand cubic meters. The reason is the increase in world demand due to the gradual recovery of the world economy after the last year’s COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Besides, the cold winter in Europe and the abnormal heat in the summer of this year made European countries increase the gas consumption, first for heating, and then to increase electricity production to ensure the operation of air conditioners, coolers, and so on.

A similar situation is observed in the United States and Asia. At this, due to declining gas demand last year, neither the United States nor Europe have made sufficient reserves, which has automatically led to the devastation of gas storage facilities, which need to be urgently replenished, especially in the view of the upcoming autumn–winter period.

Therefore, the EU countries appealed to Russia and Gazprom to increase the supply of gas for its injection into European gas storage facilities. According to a number of estimates, a separate motivation for such an appeal was the concern of the leadership and EU members about the possibility of further increase in the gas prices. Therefore, they are in a hurry to buy it at current, albeit high, prices.

However, Russia refused to grant such a request. In July this year it has even reduced gas injection into European storage facilities. Officially, this was due to the terms of the relevant contracts and the emergence of certain technical problems (in particular, the repair of the Yamal — Europe pipeline and the maintenance and repair of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline). However, in reality the reasons were different.

Reduction of gas supplies to Europe by Russia’s Gazprom in the summer of 2021

Russia itself expects an increase in gas prices, which will allow it (or rather — the Russian oligarchs close to V. Putin) to make extra profits from its sale. Therefore, it is obvious that it is not profitable to increase gas sales at current prices. Russia now is just pumping gas into European gas storage facilities, but is not selling it. Even though it spends money on its storage.

It is clear that Russia is again using the “gas weapon” to put pressure on Europe. In particular, Russia attributes the possibility of increasing gas supplies to the EU to the commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, as it calls the Ukrainian route “too expensive”. Although in fact it seeks to deprive Ukraine of the additional funds for increasing the transit of Russian gas through its territory. And this is not to mention the strategic intentions of Russia to get critical levers of pressure on Ukraine under the threat of cutting off gas supplies to meet its energy needs.

At the same time, threatening to destabilize the European gas market, Russia is trying to influence the results of the parliamentary elections in Germany on September 26 this year. That is, to undermine the position of the leader of the Green Party, A. Baerbock, who is the candidate for the post of the new Federal Chancellor of Germany and has a strong position on Russia. For example, she considers it appropriate to extend sanctions against Russia, not to mention her being against the Nord Stream 2 project.

Given such steps by Russia, we can predict that in the winter of 2021–2022 it will launch a new “gas war” against Ukraine and the EU, demanding to agree with Russia’s version of the “settlement” of the conflict in the Donbas, recognize “Crimea’s belonging” to it and lift western sanctions over Crimea.

 

And yet, according to folk wisdom, who digs a pit for others, falls in himself. The same applies to covering up some of one’s actions with imaginary diseases, because they can actually occur. However, Russia ignores such advice. It “goes her own way” and drives itself into various “traps”, critically dangerous for it included.

As noted above, the decline in gas supplies to Europe in late July this year was explained by Russia by “technical problems”. And how not to mention another folk saying “Don’t trouble trouble until trouble troubles you!”. Already in early August this year. Russia’s fictional “technical problems” with gas supplies to Europe became a real disaster for Russia’s gas system.

In the evening of August 5, 2021 a fire broke out at Gazprom’s plant in Novy Urengoy (Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug), which is preparing gas condensate for transportation, and a powerful explosion occurred. As a result, gas production has been suspended throughout Western Siberia, which accounts for 80 % of its production in Russia. Due to this, the volumes of gas pumping through the Yamal — Europe gas pipeline have been reduced.

Explosion at the Gazprom’s plant in Novy Urengoy

According to preliminary data from the accident investigation, the reason was technical deficiencies due to the obsolescence of the plant’s technical equipment (manufactured in the early 1980s) and its unsatisfactory maintenance.

And how could it be otherwise, when Russia’s priority is to build gas pipelines bypassing Ukraine, rather than to maintain in working condition and modernize the existing gas infrastructure? Not to mention Western sanctions banning the sale of modern technology and equipment to Russia for its oil and gas industry. While it has never had her own ones. And never will have.

 

Of course, Russia will somehow restore the plant and gas production in Western Siberia. However, against the background of its manipulations over the issue of gas supplies to Europe, the catastrophe in Novy Urengoy could become an additional catalyst for the EU’s actions to break its energy dependence on the Russian Federation.

Such steps of the European Union are quite well known and have been repeatedly mentioned on our website and in other media. In particular, according to the European Energy Security Strategy, which was adopted in May 2014, they include: creation of a system of alternative oil and gas pipelines to Europe from Norway, Azerbaijan and Central Asia; construction of terminals for reception and regasification of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in EU ‘s coastal countries; unification of European energy networks (primarily gas and electricity ones) and creation of a single energy market; moving to “green” energy, namely — renewable energy sources.

Dependence of European countries on Russian gas

To date, much of what is planned has already been implemented in practice. Again, we will not tire readers with a list of all EU measures, but will focus only on their consequences. The main one is the construction of a number of LNG-terminals, which compensates for the decline in Russian gas supplies. Such supplies to Europe have been made for several years from the United States and the Middle East, primarily Qatar. There are now some difficulties with this due to the USA’s need to replenish its gas reserves and to reorient LNG supplies to Asian countries. However, such difficulties are temporary.

Besides, in 2019 the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline on the route Azerbaijan — Georgia — Turkey — Greece was put into operation with its subsequent connection to the Trans-Adriatic gas pipeline, which supplies gas to the countries of Southern Europe and the Balkan Peninsula. Also, the construction of the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline from Norway to Poland on the bottom of the Baltic Sea is nearing completion. Its work begins in 2022.

All this already allows Poland, the Baltic states, Romania and Bulgaria to gradually give up the use of Russian gas, not to mention Ukraine, which has stopped buying gas from Russia since 2014.

 

And in concluding, a few words about today’s events, which have long been predicted by Western experts. We do not have access to the assessments of Western secret services, as they remain closed. But issues related to Russia’s troubled economy and energy sector are reflected in the writings of American writers, including Tom Clancy in his book The Red Storm Rising. According to the plot, Islamic terrorists blew up an oil refinery in Western Siberia. As a result, the USSR loses the ability to supply oil to Europe, and thus — to receive foreign exchange earnings, which allowed it to somehow support its economy. According to Tom Clancy, to resolve this problem, the Soviet leaders decided to seize Iran’s oil fields and refineries. And in order to distract the world from such actions of the Soviet Union, an armed conflict with NATO was provoked. And who can guarantee today that Russia will not turn such a scenario into reality?

 

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