Russia — NATO. A New Stage of Confrontation

Ivan Sichen

As expected, the capture of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk by Russian troops caused a wave of euphoria in the Kremlin, where they are even starting to celebrate the victory over Ukraine. And once again they give us ultimatums about surrender. But then, a battle won is not yet a war won. Especially for the price that Moscow has already paid for the attack on Ukraine, which includes both losses on the front and economic losses from Western sanctions. Maybe such a price is not worth anything for the Kremlin. Who did ever pay attention to losses there? The matter is completely different, namely, the final geopolitical failure of the Russian Federation, which actually opposed itself to the entire civilized world. This was confirmed by the results of the recent NATO summit in Madrid.

As we know, the main result of the summit in Madrid was the adoption of the new Strategic Concept of NATO, which determines the goals of the Alliance for the next decade. The document reflects the changes that have taken place in the world since the adoption of the previous Strategic Concept of the Alliance in 2010. First of all, this concerns Moscow’s open move to an aggressive foreign policy with the use of military force, as well as the spread of China’s expansion.

In the Madrid Summit Declaration, Russia is called “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area”. In turn, China is positioned as a source of systemic challenges for the Alliance. Countering the mentioned countries is the priority task of the North Atlantic Alliance.

Russia is the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area

In fact, this decision establishes the fact that the world has returned to the confrontation between the Eastern (Russia/China) and Western (USA/Europe) blocs. However, such a confrontation has some differences from the times of the last Cold War, which significantly changes the situation.

For one, today NATO includes the countries of Central-Eastern Europe and the Baltic States, which were once allies of the USSR under the Warsaw Pact Organization and, even, its constituent parts (republics). Besides, at the Madrid summit, applications for joining the Alliance of previously neutral Finland and Sweden were approved.

With this, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has significantly improved its geographical position in the European theater of possible military operations, namely, brought its military presence closer to the borders of the Russian Federation, which is stubbornly trying to take the place of the former Soviet Union, but with even greater ambitions.

However, in contrast to the times of the USSR, such ambitions of current Moscow are actually not supported by the necessary resources. The armed forces of Russia are a pitiful simile of the army and navy of the former Soviet Union, both in terms of combat and military potential, as well as in terms of combat training. This was clearly demonstrated by Putin’s war against Ukraine.

Apart from Belarus, Russia has practically no allies. But even Belarus in no hurry to send its troops to war in Ukraine. As for China, with allies like it, one doesn’t need enemies. China, which has a much stronger potential, is essentially using Russia as a pawn in its own game with the West. Beijing pushes Moscow to adventure, and then uses Russia’s status of a country under sanctions to gain greater access to its natural resources. At this, China does not help Russia in any way. Moreover, since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Russian-Chinese trade has decreased by 30 %. In addition, China has stopped financing a number of joint economic projects.

Such circumstances determine the military-political and military-strategic situation around Ukraine, which is at the center of the intersection of the interests of the West and the East. As we have already noted earlier, today the USA and Europe consider Ukraine as a “bastion fortress” in deterring Russia. And this role of our state is fully confirmed in real life. Who else would be able to resist the “second army of the world” for four months in a row? And also to completely bleed the Russian army. Don’t Russia’s threats to attack Europe sound ridiculous, when it is unable to cope even with Ukraine?

The USA and Europe consider Ukraine as a “bastion fortress” in deterring Russia

And that is why our Western partners will continue to provide assistance to Ukraine, including the supply of heavy weapons. This became another key decision of the NATO summit in Madrid. By the way, immediately after the summit, the issue of the possibility of the supply of combat aircrafts and tanks to Ukraine by the countries of Central and Eastern Europe was again raised.

In turn, Russia is trying to include Ukraine in the sphere of its own influence and turn it into a kind of “forefront” in the confrontation with NATO — like Belarus. Moscow is also extremely interested in the possibility of using the economic and military potential of Ukraine in its interests. Achieving these goals would allow Russia to significantly strengthen its military and other positions in the confrontation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

The Kremlin has obviously already realized the impossibility of fully achieving the mentioned goals. Because of this, today Russia’s main efforts are aimed at seizing at least the east and south of Ukraine, as well as comprehensively weakening it as NATO’s main partner in the post-Soviet space. To do this, Russia continues active offensive actions in the Donbas, tries to keep in its hands the captured territories of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and also launches missile attacks on the objects of the economic, military, transport and residential infrastructure of Ukraine.

Moscow also directly threatens NATO for its support of Ukraine and for the actions of the Alliance to deter Russia. This situation brings the confrontation between Russia and NATO to a qualitatively new level, which was reflected in the decisions of the leadership of the North Atlantic Alliance.

In particular, according to the Secretary General of the Alliance J. Stoltenberg, in view of the growing threats from Russia, the Alliance will increase the number of NATO Response Force to well over 300,000. Besides, the USA undertook to strengthen its military presence in the countries of Central-Eastern Europe and the Baltic States, first of all in Poland.

The Alliance will increase the number of NATO Response Force to well over 300,000

Thus, both Russia and the USA/NATO took courses for mutual military deterrence in their areas of interest. For today, such actions are far from the scale of those that took place during the last Cold War, but they are already beginning to approach them. At the same time, the danger of the confrontation between Russia and the USA/NATO growing into a full-scale war, including with the use of nuclear weapons, is objectively increasing.

However, the main role in the confrontation between the East and the West will still be played by their economic potentials. This is exactly what happened during the previous Cold War, which was lost by the USSR due to the economic superiority of the USA and Europe. Now the same end awaits Putin’s Russia, which not only failed to match the West in terms of its economy, but also lags behind it even more than the former Soviet Union.

Do those in the Kremlin understand this? Most likely, they do. They also understand that Russia cannot oppose its Western opponents in the economic sphere, but only complicates its own position by trying to use oil and gas to put pressure on Europe. Despite this, the leaders in the Kremlin, with the stubbornness of maniacs, continue the war against Ukraine and deliberately aggravate relations with the USA and Europe, blackmailing them with their military power.

As a result, Russia will inevitably lose and be forced to disappear from the world map, as it once happened with the USSR, or start a nuclear war and destroy the entire world civilization. We will still hope for the former option.