What Should We Expect In the Future

Ivan Sichen

We remember how, at the beginning of the war last February, Moscow hoped to capture Kyiv within three days, and all Ukraine in no more than a fortnight. These hopes were dispelled in March 2022 after the failure of the offensive of Russian troops on the capital of our state, and then their forced retreat from the northern and northeastern Ukrainian regions. In fact, their new offensive in the Donbas, which began in January 2023 with the aim to capture all the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, was also unsuccessful for the Russians. At this, the attackers have already lost more than 200 thousand servicemen of the Russian Army and Navy, 90–95 % of special forces and several thousand pieces of military equipment. However, Putin’s regime does not stop fighting in Ukraine, does not withdraw its troops from the occupied territories, because it is well aware that this will indicate its political collapse. Representatives of the ruling elite of Russia only declare their desire to restore peace, although in fact they are preparing for a protracted war with Ukraine.

Regarding the cynical position of Moscow, which, on the one hand, seems to seek to reconcile with Ukraine, and on the other — does not stop hostilities. It would seem, well, what is difficult in restoring “good-neighborly” relations between the parties. To do this, Russia only needs to withdraw its troops from the territory of Ukraine, abandon all claims against our state, transfer war criminals to the International Criminal Court, return our deported citizens to their homes, as well as compensate us for the losses caused by the Russian aggressors.

But who from the leadership of the Russian Federation will decide on such steps?! Instead, Russian officials still hope to achieve victory over Ukraine at the expense of Russia’s superiority in military, human, and economic resources. At the same time, such resources are no longer enough for Moscow’s planned “blitz” war against Ukraine. That is why the Russian leadership has actually begun the process of transition to a prolonged war against our state using the entire mobilization resource of the Russian Federation.

We have already written in previous publications how exactly this happens. At the same time, it is worth considering such measures of Russians as a whole in order to better understand the current situation and determine what awaits us in the near future. So:

Now in Russia there is another stage of mobilization, during which by the end of the year 400 thousand people should be mobilized. This is more than was involved in the attack on Ukraine at the beginning of the war. In order to make the mobilization process faster and prevent evasion of citizens, in April 2023 a mechanism of electronic conscription notices was introduced. They are received by citizens through the Russian system of public services. Services are not provided until a citizen confirms receipt of a call to the conscription office using an electronic signature. After that, the conscription notices is considered served and criminal liability for draft evasion begins.

Besides, from now on, young men have the right to go to contract service immediately after graduation from school (in the past it was possible only after graduating from a university or after performing regular service for at least three months). Invitations to contract service are posted in regional Russian media. The positions of deputy platoon commanders and squad commanders, machine gunners, riflemen, grenade launchers, drivers and cooks are offered. Foreigners are also invited to serve in the Russian army.

Due to the failures of the regular troops of the RF Armed Forces and shortage of servicemen in the combat zone, PMC “Wagner” again comes to the fore. Persons from correctional colonies are sent there. The “Wagnerites” are provided with sufficient amounts of ammunition and weapons. In this way, Moscow seeks to cope with the problem of shortages of regular army personnel before the completion of a new stage of mobilization.

Since autumn-winter of 2022, federal and local authorities of Russia have been strengthening the defense system on the border with Ukraine (primarily in Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions), as well as in secondary sections of the front line on the territory of Ukraine. These are engineering barriers with a depth of three to five kilometers, at least three rows of reinforced concrete pyramids (tetrahedra), minefields, anti-tank ditches and platoon, company and battalion strongholds with trenches, bunkers and reinforced concrete pillboxes. Behind them are the positions of barrel and rocket artillery, and then — operational-tactical missiles. In the above-mentioned regions, the number of Russian troops is increasing and so-called voluntary people’s units are being created.

As a result of the transformation of the border regions of the Russian Federation into frontline zones, the network of shelters for the population is simultaneously expanding and modernizing there. These are mainly basements of residential buildings, schools, kindergartens, industrial facilities and various institutions. Local businessmen were instructed by local authorities to provide civil and military defense for their enterprises, including equipping bomb shelters, laying windows with sandbags, and creating perimeters with fighting positions, trenches and checkpoints.

Moscow has also intensified the process of transferring the Russian economy to a war footing. In particular, in the city of Kursk and Kursk region alone, military equipment is produced by 50 enterprises (before the war there were only four of them), which manufacture heavy equipment (trucks are equipped with armor), special equipment, diesel generators, various electronic equipment, batteries, military gear and uniforms, etc.

Enterprises in other regions of Russia are increasing the production of UAVs (including under foreign licenses), as well as studying opportunities to resume mass production of cruise and ballistic missiles, other weapons and components to them.

Last year, owners and directors of military enterprises of all forms of ownership obtained the right to prohibit the dismissal of their employees, as well as cancel vacations and weekends and introduce irregular working hours.

But this still does not allow Russia to adequately provide its troops with modern military weapons, which are lost daily at the front, which forces it to remove from storages obsolete weapons (almost from the times of the Second World War).

Due to Western sanctions, military spending, as well as due to the lack of prospects for a quick end to the war, a “money printing” is being prepared for launch, which should compensate for the deficit of the state budget of Russia by issuing additional money supply. However, the government and the leadership of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are well aware that such money will have no real collateral, and therefore its introduction into circulation will inevitably lead to a rapid increase in inflation and, ultimately, will weaken the position of the Putin regime. Therefore, Moscow is looking for opportunities for domestic and external borrowing. As part of such actions, in fact, money is confiscated from Russian businesses. Besides, Russia is forced to resort to various financial frauds and conclude unprofitable deals in order to obtain loans from other countries.

Special services and authorities of Russia are strengthening the police regime, which should prevent the spread of anti-war sentiments in the Russian society. Due to the inability of the Russian Armed Forces and mercenaries of the PMC “Wagner” to achieve tangible success at the front, due to the prolongation of the war, a significant increase in losses and deterioration in the standard of living of the population, such sentiments are beginning to acquire a critical character for the Putin regime. This is already felt even in open publications of regional media of the Russian Federation, not to mention posts on social networks and conversations of Russian citizens, which have long moved from euphoria about the “successes of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine” to recognition of all related problems. An indicative factor is the decline of the authority of the RF Armed Forces, desertion and mass evasion of men from military service. In view of the above, administrative and criminal liability for these actions is significantly increased. And captured deserters from the PMC “Wagner” are executed directly at the place of detention. However, such a threat does not stop them, which, first of all, concerns former prisoners conscripted from colonies and penalty camps who escape with weapons in their hands or engage in battles with the Rosgvardia, police and FSB units.

In conditions of practical isolation in the international arena, Moscow is looking for allies who could support its policy and position in the war with Ukraine, as well as provide it with military-technical assistance. Today, Russia is openly supported by North Korea, Iran, Syria and Nicaragua, which are the same rogue states as the Russian Federation itself. At this, Iran also supplies it with attack UAVs. In a way, China and Brazil are on the side of Putin’s regime, although their course is more cautious because of their own interests. Thus, the PRC declares relations of “strategic partnership” with Russia and maintains close trade and economic ties with it, but refuses to supply it with weapons. In fact, Beijing uses the Russian Federation as a source of natural resources for its economy and a market for Chinese goods, as well as a tool to divert the attention and resources of the USA and EU in competition with them as a new center of global power.

These activities of Russians are accompanied by a large-scale information and propaganda campaign, which is trying to rally the Russian population around the Kremlin by positioning Russia as a “besieged fortress at war with the entire Western world”, as well as to justify Putin’s war against Ukraine.

And finally, as conclusions, let’s try to predict what will happen next.

Firstly, based on what Russia is trying to do, which has intensified its offensive in the Donbas by attracting reserves and transferring additional troops from other sections of the front line, we should be prepared that it will try its best to seize the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Secondly, after losing this opportunity, Moscow will move to strategic defense on the Russian-Ukrainian border and in most of the combat zone, along with further offensive operations in the east of our country. At the same time, Russia may intensify missile and artillery attacks in order to weaken Ukraine’s military and economic potential, as well as intimidate its population.

Thirdly, if the new stage of mobilization in Russia succeeds and it accumulates a sufficient amount of military weapons (even obsolete ones), ammunition and other necessary materials, gear and equipment, Moscow can resume a large-scale offensive in the Donbas. Besides, auxiliary strikes can be inflicted from the territory of Belarus, Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions of the Russian Federation and the occupied areas of southern Ukraine.

Ukraine should be ready for such a development of events.