Global Climate Change: Reasons and Consequences

Analysis of the US National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change

 

 

Ivan Sichen

Since the early 1990s, the problem of global climate change has become increasingly important, and is already creating significant negative consequences for humanity and threatening the very existence of our civilization. In view of this, these issues have recently been subject to increased attention of the world’s leaders, and are raised during international events related to world politics, security and economics. The COP26 UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland, is also dedicated to countering environmental threats. In October of 2021, a special report on the reasons and consequences of global climate change was released by the Office of the Director of US National Intelligence. Ukraine, as an integral part of the world, is also affected by global climate change. In view of the above, it is appropriate to consider the estimate of US Intelligence in more detail. Especially since it also apply to our state in a certain critical sense for it.

 

The US National Intelligence Estimate “Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040”

The estimate of the Office of the Director of US National Intelligence “Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040” was prepared by order of the US President to clarify Washington’s policy in this sphere. Apart from purely intelligence assessments, the document also took into account the relevant materials and conclusions of the US Federal Scientific Community.

The main idea of the report is the fact that global climate change is approaching a critical level (increase in the average temperature on Earth by 2 degrees Celsius), which may be irreversible. The reason for this is the expansion of human economic activity and low efficiency of the international regulatory framework to fight its negative impact on the environment.

First of all, there are problems with the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol (an addendum to the UN Framework Convention on Climate change of 1992; adopted in 1997; entered into force in 2005) and the Paris Agreement (adopted in 2015; entered into force in 2016), which include the commitments of their participants to limit greenhouse gas emissions and take other measures to fight climate change.

The main such problems are considered to be contradictions between different countries (or groups of countries) due to inequality of their development, differences in economic systems, political goals, interests and methods of their implementation. Besides, the processes of human transition to new technologies, which involve the use of “clean” energy and attempts to counter global climate change by geo-engineering methods, have quite ambiguous consequences.

According to the authors of the report, the following factors are the most significant in this context:

— Uneven participation of different countries in the development and implementation of new “clean” technologies in energy, manufacturing, transport and other areas, which reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reduce their negative impact on the environment. For example, the leading Western countries, which have the necessary finances and technical capabilities, as well as political incentives related to their civilizational values, play a key role in this.

In contrast, developing countries do not have such opportunities and are forced to ensure their economic development through the use of coal and oil, which is why they are the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions. This is especially true of China and India, which are some of the world’s largest economies based on these types of energy;

Top 10 current and projected greenhouse gas emitters

— Many countries’ being interested in the world’s continuing the mass use of oil, coal and other fossil fuels, which form the basis of their exports. These primarily include Russia, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, some countries of the Caspian region, Central America, North and Central Africa. At this, some of them, first of all Russia, use their significant energy reserves also for political purposes — to strengthen their position in the world and pressure on other countries.

However, the same applies to some Western countries. In particular, the US Intelligence report points out the actions of the United Kingdom and Norway, which on the one hand support the fight against global climate change, and on the other — remain the leading oil producers in Europe and increase oil production. In fact, the same is true of the United States itself. In particular, in 2019, the then US President D. Trump decided to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, which was due to his energy policy, which provided for a significant increase in oil production in the country and the development of related infrastructure (including refineries, pipelines, oil terminals and ports, tanker fleet, etc.);

Current and projected energy demand by source based on current policies

— The growth of demand for energy in the world above the expected level. Despite the fast development of “clean” energy technologies (in particular, wind, solar and hydropower ones), they cannot compensate for this trend, which requires an increase in oil and coal production.

A certain way out of this situation is thought to be the commissioning of additional nuclear power plants, which cause much less damage to the environment than thermal power systems, under conditions of normal operation of nuclear power plants. With this in mind, even those countries that began to abandon nuclear energy in the early 2010s (Germany and Japan included) are now beginning to return to nuclear energy. However, a number of other countries continue to insist on the dangers of nuclear energy.

A certain way out of this situation may be to increase the production and use of natural gas, which is already carried out in practice. However, it is not a full-fledged replacement for “clean” energy and only partially reduces greenhouse gas emissions;

— High cost of development and implementation of new technologies for the production of “clean” energy, which reduces the attractiveness in comparison with traditional types of energy. The transition to new technologies is particularly difficult due to the developed infrastructure of production, transportation and consumption of oil and coal.

In contrast to this, the development of “clean” energy infrastructure is still in its infancy and requires the construction and commissioning of enterprises for the production of appropriate equipment, as well as construction of wind, solar and hydropower plants.

These circumstances require a complete restructuring of the entire energy system of the world and attracting significant investment, which is an extremely difficult problem that is almost impossible to resolve in the short or medium term;

— low efficiency of geoengineering techniques of counteracting global climate change, including: attempts to cool the average temperature on the globe with the use of special technical devices; attempts to restore the ozone layer by spraying appropriate chemicals; implementation of measures for the decomposition of greenhouse gases by chemical and biological means.

Besides, application of geoengineering techniques requires coordination of efforts of all leading countries in the world, and hence — difficult and lengthy negotiations between them. Especially as geoengineering technologies can be used as climate weapons.

Based on the above circumstances, the report of the Office of the Director of US National Intelligence concludes that it is virtually impossible to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement to keep the process of rising average temperatures at dangerous levels. According to US Intelligence experts, this level will be exceeded by 2030, which will have a wide range of different consequences, both negative and positive, depending on the specific circumstances and the concerned parties.

The report emphasizes those aspects that will have a direct impact on US interests. In particular, the focus is placed on individual countries and regions that are important to the United States. With this in mind, we will estimate only the general conclusions of US Intelligence report on the effects of global climate change. Here are some of them:

— Abnormal natural phenomena, including droughts in some regions of the world and downpours and floods in others. All this leads to the complete or partial loss of suitability of many of the traditional agricultural regions of the world; lack of fresh (drinking) water for the population and economic activity in drought areas; the growing scale of forest fires; flooding of settlements, destruction of transport infrastructure, human casualties and damage (loss) of property of local residents in areas of large-scale floods.

At the same time, climate change associated with global warming is creating an enabling environment for agriculture in regions where it was previously unprofitable or impossible. In particular, this applies to areas north of the middle zones of Russia and Canada, as well as the southern regions of Argentina and Chile. The possibility of the emergence of new areas suitable for agricultural activities in the now unpredictable places of the world is not ruled out. The same applies to the possibility of changing the use profile of agricultural areas;

The reduction of Arctic ice cover

— Melting ice of the Arctic Ocean, Antarctica, mountain glaciers and permafrost thaw. The most dangerous manifestation of this process is the rising level of the world’s oceans, which causes flooding of coastal areas. This problem is particularly acute due to the large number of people living in those areas, as well as the concentration of large cities there, including important administrative, port and industrial centers.

At the same time, the increase in water runoff from glaciers overflows mountain rivers, which is another cause of floods in some parts of the world (especially adjacent to large mountain ranges). However, after the depletion of glaciers, floods are replaced by droughts.

The permafrost thaw, which includes the destruction of urban infrastructure, transport communications and industrial facilities (among them — equipment for oil and gas wells and pipelines), also has quite negative consequences. In addition, the Arctic seas are polluted by effluents of organic matter, which go from frozen to semi-liquid (muddy) state. All this is really happening in Russia, which is 70 % in the permafrost zone.

Against this background, the reduction of Arctic ice cover expands access to the region’s natural resources, which mainly include offshore oil and gas deposits. New transport links are also opening up, significantly shortening the route between Europe and the Asia-Pacific region;

— Contradictions between different countries with the possibility of their escalation into conflicts with the use of military force. According to US Intelligence experts, such contradictions and conflicts could be caused by the following factors:

– struggle for access to vital resources, first of all, fresh water and agricultural lands. For example, in a number of arid regions of the world, the same rivers flow through the territory of several countries, which leads to problems in the distribution of their water resources;

– unresolved issues of delimitation of the Arctic zone and, accordingly, — control over mineral deposits and transport communications of the region. In the first place, such contradictions exist between the countries of the Arctic region (mainly Russia and the United States), however, they are increasingly involving other states that do not have direct access to the Arctic (in particular, China);

– intensification of competition in the development and implementation of technologies for the production of “clean” energy, including access to scarce materials needed to create technical equipment (mainly rare earth elements). In the same context, some countries and transnational corporations counteract spreading of these technologies;

– some countries’ negative attitude the world’s leading countries and international organizations’ measures to stimulate the process of reducing greenhouse gas emissions (including through the introduction of additional taxes on imports of goods from countries that do not comply with the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreements). The US Intelligence report mentions Ukraine among these countries.

Countries of great concern from the threat of climate change

However, according to US Intelligence experts, these factors are not critical for the United States, which is in a relatively favorable climate zone and has the necessary resources to counter environmental threats to national security.

 

In general, the US Intelligence estimate of the reasons and consequences of global climate change are in line with Russia’s view of the issue. The differences of the parties mostly concern only the shifting of responsibility for the considered problems to each other. However, this is another manifestation of the confrontation between the United States and Russia, which is also beginning to spread on the environmental sphere. This situation makes it virtually impossible to resolve the world’s environmental problems, which will have a negative impact on the vast majority of countries, including Ukraine.

Besides, Ukraine’s ambiguous attitude to Western countries’ steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions complicates Ukraine’s relations with them, which harms the interests of our state.

 

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