“BINTEL” Geopolitical Analytics Journal, Issue 4, 2020

The Latest Issue of “BINTEL” Journal for 2020 Has Been Published





According to the six-year tradition of the “BINTEL” Geopolitical Analytics Journal, in the issue published on the eve of the New Year, Chief of the Editorial Council Victor Hvozd summarizes the world geopolitical events of the past twelve months. This time in his article “Situation in the World in 2020 and Ukraine’s National Interests”, V. Hvozd covers quite a wide range of such events. One has just look at the subheadings of the sections to understand what the author means when analyzing the progress of the Ukrainian state on its difficult path of historical development.

Thus, at the beginning of the article, the author raises the topic of the current main challenge to Ukraine’s national security, presenting his vision in the section “Russia’s Armed Aggression Against Ukraine. Actions of the Russian Federation, Partners and Allies of Ukraine”. Then in the section “The Main Events and Trends in the Development of the Situation Around Ukraine”, he touches upon the changes in world geopolitics that have caused new challenges to world security, and moves on to analyze the positions of our partners and opponents, focusing on the main aspects in the activities of the world’s leading states and international organizations that influenced the interests of Ukraine. These are the countries like the United States, where the President was elected at the end of the year; the Russian Federation in its efforts to reach the level of a leading center of power through intensive progress, including bringing GDP growth to a level that should exceed the world’s one; the European Union, whose leadership was trying to cope with internal pandemic problems and to keep on the chosen path of development of its foreign policy; the People’s Republic of China, which is the most effective in overcoming the economic crisis and expanding its influence in the world, including in the Asia-Pacific region, Russia’s Far East, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, etc.

At the beginning of the section “Peculiarities of the Situation in Other Regions Important for Ukraine”, the author points out that the situation in Ukraine is affected not only by the policies of leading states, but also by the problems that arise in other regions of the world, in particular in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. These include the ongoing conflict in Syria and the border confrontation between China and India. Despite their local nature, they pose a threat to regional and global security and sometimes distracts the world community’s attention from Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine.

The author also analyzes in detail the military-strategic situation around Ukraine in 2020, when Russia and the United States/NATO continued to increase their military presence in the European theater of possible hostilities. Planned operational and combat training activities were carried out to show military force, including components of nuclear arms, which “increased the risk of armed incidents with unpredictable consequences”. In the subsection “Russia”, V. Hvozd summarizes the events conducted by the Russian military command in the Western and Southern military districts during the Strategic Command and Post Exercise (SCPE) “Caucasus-2020”, with the involvement of tactical and strategic aviation, Airborne Troops, Black Sea Fleet and Caspian Flotilla, etc. The author reminds that “the “Caucasus-2020” SCPE’s aggressive orientation against Ukraine and the United States/NATO in the Black Sea region was confirmed by the nature of their preparatory measures during a comprehensive inspection of the Russian Armed Forces for the winter training in February–March 2020, as well as a “sudden” inspection of the command and troops of the Southern and Western military districts in July 2020”. He provides a detailed schedule of operational and combat trainings, where it was also important for Russia to show its military force to NATO, “especially during protests in Belarus against the Lukashenko regime”. Eloquent were the events such as the Russian-Belarusian exercise “Slavic Brotherhood-2020” on September 14–25 and the exercise of CSTO peacekeeping forces “Indestructible Brotherhood-2020” on October 12–16, 2020. To which the United States and NATO were forced to react in 2020. How exactly — this is also reported in detail by the author of the article.

It should be noted that the mentioned material, as well as other articles of this issue, are accompanied by original illustrations and charts, thanks to which the content is perceived better, the opinions of the authors get a unique color. If necessary, tables and diagrams can be used in the educational process of our educational institutions, during seminars or round tables.

By the way, this is confirmed by a scientific article of Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Professor Myroslav Dnistryanskyi — “How Does the Geopolitical Consciousness of the Leading Elites Shape the Modern World Order?”. This time he gives the reader his vision of what influences our postmodern world, and in particular — who plays a major role in such development, and therefore should be responsible. This article, I am sure, will please his like-minded people and supporters who are not indifferent to the fate of our state. Here is what, in particular, the author of this article believes:

“There is more to geopolitical consciousness than just a special philosophy, it is also an active factor of practical influence on the territorial and political situation in the world. This manifested itself at all times, but this influence has grown even more since the end of the 20th century, in the period known as postmodernism, when as a result of great territorial-political and information-communication transformations in the Europeanized world there was a rethinking of many worldviews and philosophical approaches. This period also led to a significant transformation of mental and political thinking, which manifested itself in the growing desire to construct new territorial and political realities, direct and indirect imposition of own political projects, which deepened the “hybridization” of world politics in general. Therefore, geopolitical consciousness today not only influences the political situation, but also largely shapes it”.

“…Globalism has become economically and politically beneficial for the political elites of postmodern consumer society, which has established itself primarily among developed countries, as it did provide them with a number of advantages over the countries of the so-called economic periphery”.

“…Globalists insist on further transformation of the EU towards creating a confederate state, which is not supported by many political circles of nation-states. Conceptually, all ideas of globalist geopolitical thinking have relied on the objectivity of the globalization process, which is most evident in the growth of economic and socio-ecological interdependence of countries, unification of cultural approaches and standards, comprehensive communication rapprochement”.

Undoubtedly, the author’s conclusions about the reasons for modern events, their possible consequences, in particular, what can happen to our state due to ignoring them, are not only interesting but also important for public. Especially at the so-called stage of state formation, which we are forced to observe today. And although the extracts from M. Dnistryanskyi’s article given above are more than eloquent, I think that another one is quite appropriate, because it cannot but interest those who are really concerned with this subject:

“…In the economic sphere, the processes of globalization are dominant today… globalization economic processes increase the economic and political importance of large world economies and reduce socio-economic opportunities of small states and their political independence… Deepening of global economic interdependence leads to an increase in the vulnerability of national economies, and hence an increase in the popularity of the ideas of economic nationalism”.

Under the heading “International Policy” we offer our readers Ph.D. in History Oleksiy Volovych‘s article “The State and Prospects of a Peaceful Settlement in Libya”.

For several decades now, the world community has been focusing on Libya, which shows how the interests of international corporations affect the country’s life, and especially when its mineral deposits guarantee quick and substantial profits. As for the author of the article, in Ukraine he is one of the few “Arabists” who had to deal with the policies of the Middle East and North Africa during his long career of a translator. There are practically no secrets for him there, he explains quite in detail both any event there and the reason for its occurrence, as well as the psychology of the behavior of its participants. After all, the mentality of the local population is determined by its actions or reactions to any phenomena, and it is impossible to radically change this mentality in a short time. Even through hostilities or provoking clashes between opposing parties, which are supported “behind the scenes”.

“In almost all civil wars of the last decade, mainly in the Middle East (Syria, Libya, Iraq, Yemen)”, — the author writes — “we see other countries interfering in the conflict on one side or another, which leads to so-called proxy wars and, consequently, postpones their end. But any war, regardless of how long it lasts, usually ends in a peace agreement. Like what has been happening recently in Libya, where the civil war… has been going on since 2011”.

Read this article attentively enough, and you will understand the real reasons for the fighting in the once economically self-sufficient country, Libya. The author, describing the hostilities, talking about the participation of the warring parties in them, describes their leaders and predicts who of them can claim the chair of the head of this North African state in case of victory. He also points to obstacles to the peace process and the role played by mercenaries such as the Russian Wagner Group. Here is one of O. Volovych’s conclusions in his article: “…It is clear that the so-called foreign players and sponsors will compete for political influence in the country, for economic preferences, as well as for the role and place in the formation of the future armed forces of Libya and the supply of military equipment and weapons. That is, a serious struggle between the United States, Turkey, Russia and China for the Libyan arms market will unfold. Turkey, Russia and the USA are already trying to deploy their military bases on the territory of Libya, which will only preserve the existing state of mutual confrontation there”.

Under the heading “Historical Figures of Ukrainian Geopolitics” our regular author, political expert Serhiy Rudyuk publishes an article “The Ukrainian Patriot’s Life Credo”, dedicated to the famous Ukrainian geographer, cartographer, demographer and politician Volodymyr Kubiyovych.

The biography of this person is well known to Ukrainians, many historical studies are devoted to his activity, his works have gained worldwide recognition and today their relevance cannot be overestimated. The matter is that S. Rudyuk, preparing his articles about prominent Ukrainians, seeks to “tie” their activities to modern events, in particular to indicate how clairvoyant such Ukrainians were, what they considered extremely important for the independence of Ukraine and its people and how we are guided today by their advice-predictions in defending the independence of our state at such a difficult time for us.

Today we are accused of encroaching on other people’s territories, aren’t we? And what are the grounds for such accusations? Our “undying neighbor” accuses us of indecent treatment of “related Slavic languages” — so why does he himself despise the Ukrainian language by closing Ukrainian cultural centers and libraries on his territory, imprisoning Russian citizens of Ukrainian origin? Here is one paragraph from the above-mentioned article: “…the foreign states’ struggle for Ukrainian ethnic territories continuities. Its latest manifestations are happening right now. Hence the ever-growing need to defend of both the land and sea territory of our state. Besides, all citizens of Ukraine need to know their ethnic and state territory well. And the Atlas, arranged by V. Kubiyovych, helps in this. Although it was published in the last century, it is still relevant for us. By the way, the scientist was actively interested in the economic complex of the Donets Basin, and even published an economic and geographical description of the 1930s’ Donbas”.

In the traditional column “Visiting BINTEL”, this time we offer an interview with the popular Ukrainian TV presenter of the DOM TV channel Svitlana Leontieva, “I dream of a successful country for the people — my Ukraine!” — these words she once said, answering questions in her interview. Why did we decide to interview such a specialist? The answer is simple: S. Leontieva is from the cohort that had to counter our enemy, which is “invading” the Ukrainian information space, trying to impose its ideology on us. Today, S. Leontieva works for the TV channel created to spread in our Russian-occupied territories truthful information about Ukraine and the true position of the international community on the events in the Ukrainian East and Crimea. Honest information is badly needed by both sides of the front line. And the one provided by the Russian side is very far from the truth. Which, by the way, has been proved not only by the Ukrainian side.

 Oleh Makhno




The journal is published in Ukrainian and English and is not duplicated on the website of the Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel”.

You can buy a printed copy of the journal on our website.


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