Ukraine in the USA-Germany-Russia “Triangle”. Who Will Win?

Ivan Sichen

The summer of 2021 remains one of the richest in resonant political events that have a decisive impact on the geopolitical situation in the world and directly affect the interests of Ukraine. The next of them was the meeting of US President J. Biden and German Chancellor A. Merkel on July 15. The world and Ukrainian media have already written a lot about it. However, I would like to once again raise this issue from a slightly different point of view, which in fact was somewhat ignored by the media. In particular, through the “prism” of the new Cold War between Russia and the West, which began after Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2014.

As you know, the main keys to victory in any war are determination to achieve the goals, superiority in resources and having reliable allies. This is what allowed the West to defeat the Soviet Union in the Cold War. The reasons for the defeat of the former Soviet Union are fully taken into account by modern Russia in its new confrontation with the West. Of course, it cannot be compared to the United States and Europe in terms of its economic potential, as the USSR could not. That is why, like the Soviet Union, it relies on demonstrations of military force and attempts to split the Western world.

In recent years, Russia has almost succeeded in achieving its goals. At this, even without much effort on its part, exclusively thanks to the policy of former US President D. Trump, who damaged relations with all American partners, including Germany. Moreover, he decided to withdraw US troops from its territory, which posed a direct threat to NATO’s defense capabilities in the face of growing threats from Russia.

Of course, D. Trump could not be accused of deliberately “aiding” Moscow, but his policy objectively contributed to the realization of its interests. For example, the emergence of problems in relations between the United States and Germany was immediately used by Russia to strengthen its position both in Germany and in Europe in general. Especially, as D. Trump also “quarreled” with France, which completely changed the political preferences of the President of that country E. Macron. Thus, while after winning the presidential election in France in 2017, E. Macron took an openly anti-Russian position due to Moscow’s support of his main opponent — the leader of the “National Front” M. Le Pen, D. Trump’s policy forced him to actually side with Russia. There are many examples of this and we have already cited them on the pages of our website. Therefore, we will not repeat the known facts.

Unfortunately, all these problems persist to this day, as shown, in particular, by the recent initiative of the leaders of Germany and France to invite V. Putin to the EU summit. And now the problems created by D. Trump have to be resolved by the new US President J. Biden. The main steps in this direction were the G7, NATO and EU summits with his participation in June 2021. Then J. Biden moved on to re-establishing relations with key US partners at the bilateral levels.

The problems created by D. Trump have to be resolved now by the new US President J. Biden

The first of such events was US President J. Biden’s meeting with German Chancellor A. Merkel on July 15, 2021 in Washington. The meeting showed the resumption of the strategic partnership between the two countries and its reaching a qualitatively new level. Evidence of this was the Washington Declaration, which was signed by the leaders of the United States and Germany and sets priorities for cooperation between them both bilaterally and in various international formats.

There is no need to retell the contents of the document, as it is publicly available. Let’s just draw conclusions from it, as well as from J. Biden and A. Merkel’s final press-conference, during which they specified their positions on all fundamental aspects of the declaration. So:

• the United States and Germany, as leading Western nations, completely reject Russia’s claims to a new division of the world, including Moscow’s “right” to determine the future of the former Soviet republics, impose its will on other countries, and impede freedom of navigation in neighboring maritime waters;
• deepening strategic cooperation between the United States and Germany creates preconditions for restoring the unity of the entire Western world. In this regard, the next important steps of the United States may be confirmation of its strategic partnership with other leading European countries, primarily France;
• NATO, with the leading role of the United States and Germany, will continue to be the main instrument for ensuring Euro-Atlantic security. To date, J. Biden has cancelled D. Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops from Germany, where their main military command structures are located. At this, new combat units of the US Armed Forces will be deployed in Poland and the Baltic states, which are currently the forward echelon of NATO in the military confrontation with Russia;
• the United States and Germany will in no way give up their support for Ukraine and will continue their policy of deterring Moscow. At the same time, one way or another, they will prefer their own interests to those of Ukraine. Thus, the United States and Germany have practically agreed on the completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, although they promise to preserve gas transit through Ukraine. However, no specific guarantees are provided. According to a number of American politicians, the meeting of J. Biden and A. Merkel showed the unwillingness of the United States and Germany to grant Ukraine with the NATO Membership Action Plan.

The USA and Germany will in no way give up their support for Ukraine and will continue their policy of deterring Moscow

Changes in the situation in the world provoke a corresponding reaction from Russia, which on the one hand strengthens the opposition to the United States, and on the other — uses for its own purposes the West’s rather “double” attitude to Ukraine.

For example, in the new National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation, which was approved by V. Putin in early July 2021, the United States is called “the main source of threats to the Russian Federation”. In contrast, Russia’s ties with China and India are expected to be strengthened.

Besides, as in previous similar documents, it is planned to strengthen Moscow’s position in the post-Soviet space. Moreover, by the same old methods of “supporting the Russian-speaking population in the former Soviet Union”, “preserving the Russian language as the main means of international communication”, as well as “assisting in the settlement of conflicts in neighboring countries”.

It would seem that cynicism and lies must have at least some limits. However, this does not apply to Russia at all. We see how it “settles” conflicts on the example of the Donbas. Not to mention the Russian annexation of Crimea. And after all this, Moscow declares its intention to “deepen fraternal relations with Ukraine”.

Yes, with such “brothers” no enemies are needed. At this, for some unknown reason, V. Putin continues to believe that the majority of Ukrainians allegedly want to restore friendly relations with Russia, and only the “Banderite government of Ukraine” is in the way. This is roughly what was written in V. Putin’s known article “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”.

Indeed, most Ukrainians would like peace with Russia. But not with the country led by V. Putin that pursues an openly aggressive policy. Moreover, he does not even hide his plans. This is evidenced by the new National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation, which provides for the possibility of interfering in internal affairs of neighboring countries under the above-mentioned pretexts, not to mention V. Putin’s article, which completely denies Ukraine’s right to independent existence.

Therefore, as I always write in my publications, we do need to accept the help of our Western partners, but we must rely solely on our own forces in the conflict with Russia.

Fortunately, after the period of euphoria associated with hopes for a peaceful settlement of the conflict in the Donbas, this is already becoming clear at all levels of the Ukrainian government.

This is made clear by the initiatives of the President of Ukraine V. Zelenskyi to increase the combat strength of the Ukrainian army, as well as the creation of forces of territorial defense and national resistance. Especially since we have traditions and experience of supporting the army by the population of the country since the days of the Cossack state. They were confirmed during the Civil War in the former Russian Empire, World War II and Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2014.

In fact, only this allowed to preserve our state and repulse the Russian occupiers, albeit at the expense of territorial, human and economic losses.