Moldova plays an important role in the system of economic and military-political interests of our state

Yurii Mykhailenko

Against the background of the resonant events taking place around Ukraine lately, the situation in Moldova actually remains out of wide public attention. Of course, it is not the leading country in the world, or even the region, but it plays an important role in the system of economic and military-political interests of our state. We have already raised these issues on the pages of our website. However, the situation in Moldova has again changed radically as a result of the victory of pro-Western forces in the snap election in the country. Therefore, the development of events in the country needs special attention and analysis.

As noted in our previous publications, Moldova is one of Ukraine’s key trade and economic partners in the region, as well as an important center of transport communications near the southeastern border of our country. There is no need to repeat this again, so we will consider these facts to be the category of reference information that may be of interest to some of the readers.

At this, Moldova’s European choice objectively makes it Ukraine’s partner in the post-Soviet space. This applies both to the development of ties between the two countries and to the deepening of cooperation between the parties within the framework of joint programs with the European Union. This is again known, so we will provide only a brief background on these issues.

A separate direction of cooperation between Ukraine and Moldova is joint counteraction to Moscow’s aggressive policy in the post-Soviet space and in the Black Sea region. This issue became especially relevant after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the conflict in the Donbas organized by it — exactly like Moscow once did in Moldovan Transdniestria.

In general, these circumstances determine the importance of the situation in Moldova for Ukraine. Moreover, developments in Moldova are extremely unstable due to the fierce political struggle in the country. At this, neither pro-Western nor pro-Russian forces in Moldova have an absolute advantage, and the sympathies of the electorate largely depend on the current mood of the population. In turn, such sentiments are usually formed under the influence of the economic situation in the country, the ability of political parties to conduct effective information campaigns, corruption scandals and external propaganda, primarily by Russia. The consequence of this is quite frequent changes of government in Moldova, which also lead to changes in its foreign and domestic policy. Moreover, in many cases they are radical. A manifestation of this is the current situation in Moldova, which is characterized by another escalation of the struggle between pro-Russian and pro-Western forces in the country.

As you know, according to the results of the presidential election in Moldova in December 2020 was won by the representative of the pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity of M. Sandu. At this, she defeated the then President of the country — the leader of the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) I. Dodon, who was an open protege of Moscow.

Developments in Moldova is characterized by the fierce political struggle between pro-Russian and pro-Western forces

Immediately after the election victory, M. Sandu announced the resumption of Moldova’s European integration course, admitted the possibility of intensifying the country’s military cooperation with NATO, and demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transdniestria. In addition, among Moldova’s foreign policy priorities was mentioned the development of relations with Ukraine and Romania. M. Sandu’s first foreign visit was to Kyiv in January 2021.

At the same time, until recently, Sandu’s initiatives were effectively blocked by Russia through the Moldovan Parliament, due to the peculiarities of the country’s political system. Thus, in February 2021, pro-Russian forces of Moldova managed to establish control over the country’s highest legislature by forming a ruling coalition within the parliamentary factions of the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova and the Pro Moldova platform (including the Șor Party and a number of those who sided it).

The implementation of such a plan has enabled the PSRM and its allies to increase their influence on the Government and the Constitutional Court of Moldova. Based on this, they not only created obstacles in the work of M. Sandu, but also tried to limit her power. In particular, an attempt was made to take the Moldovan Information and Security Service, the country’s main intelligence service, out of her control. All this led to a political crisis in Moldova, which was deliberately exacerbated by the PSRM with the support of Russia in order to restore the power of pro-Russian forces in the Republic. To get out of this situation, in April this year M. Sandu dissolved the Moldovan Parliament and called early parliamentary election. This decision provoked strong opposition from the PSRM, but M. Sandu managed to overcome it both through the Constitutional Court of Moldova and with the help of her supporters, who began protest actions against Socialists.

The preparation for the early parliamentary election in Moldova was again characterized by a fierce struggle between different political forces and Russia’s interference on the side of the PSRM. Despite this, according to the results of the voting on July 11, 2021, M. Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity won a convincing victory, having gained almost 53 % of the vote. This allows it to form a parliamentary majority on its own and appoint a government.

Results of the 2021 Moldovan parliamentary election

The aftermath of Moldova’s parliamentary election has effectively completed the transformation of power in the country from pro-Russian to pro-Western forces. At this, M. Sandu, in fact, assumed the reins of power, which allows her to implement her intentions.

In general, the changes in the situation in Moldova are positive for Ukraine. First of all, it concerns the favorable opportunities for the practical implementation of the agreements between M. Sandu and V. Zelenskyi on building a strategic partnership between the two countries, which were reached in January this year.

Unfortunately, not everything is so simple. Neither Russia nor its satellites in Moldova will accept the defeat and will continue to fight for the restoration of their positions. At this, the main method of such a struggle will remain the destabilization of the situation in the country to undermine the power of M. Sandu. In particular, we should expect intensification of PSRM’s actions to organize protests against M. Sandu and her government on the basis of various problems in the country.

Russia and its satellites in Moldova will not accept the defeat and will continue to fight for the restoration of their positions

In turn, Moscow will try to create or exacerbate similar problems by conducting subversive propaganda, using already tested forms of trade and economic wars, and provoking tensions in the Transdniestrian conflict zone and other troubled areas of Moldova (especially in Gagauzia). Besides, we should not rule out the possibility of Russia’s new attempts to provoke a complication in relations between Moldova and Ukraine.

A separate problem for Ukraine may also be the pro-Romanian orientation of M. Sandu, who, in fact, considers Moldova a “part” of Romania. Despite the fact that such views of M. Sandu do not in any way presuppose Moldova’s renunciation of its statehood, they somehow open up prospects for strengthening Romania’s position in the region. Given Bucharest’s plans to make Romania one of the regional leaders, it will inevitably be used to its advantage, including against Ukraine.

So, the victory of pro-Western forces in Moldova is positive for Ukraine and fully meets its interests. At the same time, Moldova will continue to be a source of instability near the southwestern border of our state. At this, the possibility of another outbreak of the Transdniestrian conflict or the emergence of new armed conflicts on Moldovan territory with Russian intervention in them is not ruled out.

Based on the above, additional prospects for the development of cooperation between Ukraine and Moldova in no way eliminate the need to strengthen the defense capabilities of our state on the Moldovan, or rather — Odesa direction. This is the question that was worked out during the Sea Breeze 2021 military exercise with the participation of Ukraine and its Western partners.