Development of the Geopolitical Situation in the World in 2019 in the Context of Ukraine’s National Interests

At the MFA Diplomatic Academy on February 26–27, 2020, there was held a thematic seminar of professional training for public officials on current trends of global development. President of the Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel” Victor Hvozd conducted a lecture “Development of the Geopolitical Situation in the World in 2019 in the Context of Ukraine’s National Interests”.

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According to the speaker, in recent years, the situation in the world has undergone fundamental changes, which are characterized by the emergence of a new multipolar system of world order and escalation of confrontation between the main centers of power in fact to the level of the Cold War.

At the global level, this confrontation is taking place in the USA — China — Russia triangle. At the same time, it is affecting all other countries in the world, including Ukraine, which is at the intersection of US and Russian interests and is hostage to the West’s interests in curbing China’s expansion.

Given the intransigence of the goals, positions and interests of the major centers of power, we should expect further intensification of the confrontation between them and a final collapse of the existing collective security mechanisms. At this, the growing rivalry between the leading states of the world in political, economic, military (including nuclear and missile), information and other spheres will be accompanied by new local wars and armed conflicts.

A number of other problems will spread, both internationally and within individual countries and their associations, the leaders of the modern world included. For example, the West will be becoming less and less “West” in the classical sense because of the growing differences between the USA and Europe and between European countries themselves. Russia will be getting into the abyss of socio-economic problems. And China will be increasingly facing the threat of an imbalance in its economy.

In general, these processes will further complicate the world and increase its unpredictability and conflict potential. All this will make the world much more dangerous for the life of each of the countries: from the leading states of the world — to the periphery in the courtyards of world civilization.

In such circumstances, the intensification of the confrontation between the West and Russia will retain the role and importance of Ukraine as one of the main factors that will determine the balance of their forces. In fact, it is precisely on how the Ukrainian question will be resolved that will depend whether the West will be able to stop Russia’s expansion and prevent it from reaching the level of the former USSR, or the RF will really become a power capable of dictating its will to the USA and Europe.

Proceeding from here, the USA, NATO and the EU will continue to support Ukraine in its full development and confrontation with Russia. At the same time, the unity of Western positions on Ukrainian and Russian issues will be gradually eroded under the influence of own problems, Russia’s pressure and the growing threats to the United States and Europe that will make them seek compromises with Moscow.

In turn, Russia will continue its consistent policy of regaining control of Ukraine and its disintegration as a single coherent state. Under such a policy, Russia will continue to use the conflict in the Donbas in an attempt to impose on Ukraine its own terms of its settlement. At this, the Kremlin’s strategic interests on the Ukrainian direction will not allow to normalize relations between Ukraine and Russia, taking into consideration the national interests of our country. The same applies to the actual impossibility of resolving at this stage the Donbas and Crimean problems.

In this situation, Ukraine’s future will depend on the firmness of our country’s position in defending its national interests. First of all, this concerns the continuation of a clear course of European and Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine, as well as preventing any concessions in its confrontation with Russia.

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