“Our victory will be when Russia will never be able to threaten us or neighboring countries…”

The Foreign Policy Research Institute is one of those institutions that regularly organizes events to study and analyze current political events, inviting well-known politicians and scholars. At least, this year several round tables were held at the press center of the Directorate-General for Rendering Services to Diplomatic Missions, which focused on the Russian-Ukrainian war. This happened this time, when the expert community was invited to analyze the topic “Russian-Ukrainian War as the Epicenter of the Global Geopolitical Confrontation”. Topical issues were discussed, which are raised daily at all events or conferences. And outstanding experts were invited to the “table”. For example, I. Romanenko (former Deputy Head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine), M. Sunhurovskyi (Director for Military Programmes at the Razumkov Centre), V. Badrak (Director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies) and others. The tone of the conversation was set by the initiator of this event — H. Perepelytsia (Director of the Institute of Foreign Policy Studies). He is known to a wide circle as a Ukrainian political scientist, international conflict expert, whose advice and conclusions almost never diverge from the events analyzed by him.

It was the same this time, when he (as well as his invited colleagues) quite frankly described what is happening not only in Ukraine now, and what consequences hostilities in our East have and will have. According to H. Perepelytsia, the current war, which began in 2014 and entered its active stage in 2022, is a continuation of the post-Cold War order. In particular, the West and the United States began to weaken somewhat, the Russian Federation — to strengthen through the sale of raw materials, and others, in particular, countries such as Turkey or Poland, began to claim the role of regional leaders. According to H. Perepelytsia, “megatrends” began to emerge, and Ukraine found itself in the epicenter of the world confrontation. Why? Because it found herself in the so-called buffer zone… As for the war, it destroys world structures, as a result of which Russia is trying to strengthen, which by its policy… discredits entire world institutions (UN, etc.). Against this background, Ukraine can become a second Israel that has been forced to conduct hostilities against its neighbors for a long time.

Director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute Hryhorii Perepelytsia

“The war spins the process of destruction of the world order”, H. Perepelytsia believes, while emphasizing that it forms a new balance of power.

Adopting the baton of speeches, former Minister of Defense of Ukraine A. Zahorodniuk (now he heads the Centre for Defence Strategies), who was present at the event, drew attention to the peculiarities of confrontation in the world political arena. He spoke about the precedent of war, and about the technology and the factor of escalation of hostilities, which can provoke, no more, no less, the Third World War… And what is the strategic role or value of Ukraine itself?

“Europe has no concrete answer to this question”, said A. Zahorodniuk, hinting on the decisions concerning the summit in Vilnius.

The conclusion of the Director of the Centre for Defence Strategies is as follows: in the near future, NATO will not accept Ukraine that can again receive a new memorandum like Budapest’s one.

Former Minister of Defence of Ukraine Andrii Zahorodniuk	Former Deputy Head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Ihor Romanenko

No less prudent can be considered the speech of I. Romanenko. He focused on the operations of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, thanks to which they should deter the enemy’s offensive and prepare a counteroffensive. “The restoration of the territorial integrity of our state is not the final peace. Russia will start a new war against us, as it did in Chechnya”, I. Romanenko is convinced, pointing out that “our victory will be when Russia will never be able to threaten us or neighboring countries”.

By the way, I. Romanenko considers it proper not to hope that hunger riots, mass protests or riots of oligarchs will break out in Russia. And in order to implement the positive scenarios and avoid negative ones, we should think about the declaration on the decolonization of the Russian Federation. And such a process should be controlled.

Oleh Makhno