Russia Recognizes Ukraine’s Offensive Capabilities

Ivan Sichen

My previous article analyzed some changes in the Kremlin’s rhetoric regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine and V. Putin’s intentions to move from military to other methods of achieving the goals of the so-called special military operation. At this, I came to the conclusion that V. Putin is trying to end the war, because it leads to negative consequences for the Russian Federation itself. However, he seeks to do so based solely in his own interests and on his own terms. It is within this framework that he plans to apply the same “other methods”, one of which was the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, which caused significant economic, humanitarian and environmental losses to Ukraine. And the immediate reason for Moscow’s taking such a step was the Ukrainian troops’ counteroffensive, which is already underway and can both nullify all Russia’s “achievements’” during the “special military operation” and devalue its losses.

As the popular saying goes, one should never boast about one’s successes until they are achieved. This also applies to the Russian Federation, which always ends in wishful thinking. Even when the wishes of the Kremlin leaders are complete nonsense and go beyond universal principles and norms, as well as disgust every normal person.

For example, in February 2022, immediately after the attack on Ukraine, the ruling elite of Russia, together with Russian propagandists, triumphantly declared the “complete destruction” of the defense potential of Ukraine and the Russia’s actual “victory”. At the same time, the Russian military had already begun to prepare for the parade on Khreshchatyk. But in June 2023, Russian President V. Putin admitted that Ukraine has an offensive potential that allows it to launch a counteroffensive. Of course, in his usual manner, he immediately said that “Ukraine has no success”, that it “has suffered significant losses that go beyond the norm”. The same Putin’s assessments are actively spread by the Russian media.

However, given Russian realities, everything that is made public by the Russian leadership and repeated by Moscow propagandists should be perceived as an exactly opposite. That is, if they claim that “Ukraine’s counteroffensive has no success”, then we can be sure that such achievements are real. And quite tangible, which forces V. Putin to personally refute them in order to somehow reassure the public. And this is true, as evidenced by the development of events at the front.

Thus, according to the Ukrainian military command, Ukrainian troops are advancing quite successfully northwards and southwards of the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk region, capturing the dominant heights and, in fact, have already half surrounded Bakhmut. Their further advance will create preconditions for the encirclement of Russian troops in Bakhmut itself. As a result, the Russians will either withdraw from the city while they still have the opportunity to, or will remain there until they are completely destroyed.

At the same time, Ukrainian troops have launched a counteroffensive in the southern/Zaporizhzhia direction. Thus, the Ministry of Defense and General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report the advance of Ukrainian troops to the south and south-west of the village of Velyka Novosilka in the south-west of Donetsk region (belongs to the Zaporizhzhia sector of the front), as a result of which a number of settlements have already been liberated. This counteroffensive does not stop.

Besides, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), British intelligence and intelligence agencies of several other countries, as well as Ukrainian and foreign experts, Ukrainian troops are also launching a counteroffensive along the line of the cities of Orikhiv — Tokmak (temporarily occupied). There are also successes and liberated settlements there. By the way, from the city of Orikhiv or from the other area, a counteroffensive is also being conducted to the south-west, in fact, along the Dnipro River.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia under way.
Source: BBC

It is difficult to predict whether Ukrainian troops will be able to develop an offensive in those areas. Moreover, the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine so far refuse to consider these actions as a full-scale offensive, defining them as reconnaissance-in-force, or, more precisely, the probes to find weaknesses in the enemy’s defense. However, even that creates significant problems and political risks for the Putin regime. This refers not only to Russia’s possible losing the occupied territories, but also to the very fact of its inability to seize the initiative at the front. In addition, more and more resources are being allocated to continue the war, including within the framework of further partial mobilization and the transfer of the country’s economy to a war footing. Although leaving even some part of the occupied territories will also be a powerful blow to the reputation of the Russian ruling elite. And no explanation of a “regrouping of troops” or a “gesture of goodwill” can prevent this. Especially after Moscow announced the accession of its “territorial gains” to the Russian Federation and made appropriate changes to its constitution.

In this context, the most tangible consequences for the Putin regime will arise after the liberation of Bakhmut by Ukrainian troops and the rupture of the land corridor to Crimea. And this is quite understandable. Thus, the capture of Bakhmut was one of the main targets of Russia’s offensive from January 2023, and then became its “sacred symbol”. In turn, the connection of the Rostov region of the Russian Federation with the temporarily occupied Crimean Peninsula by land from the very beginning was presented by Moscow as a “strategic achievement of the special military operation” in Ukraine…

Therefore, nobody will forgive V. Putin for another failure in the war. Neither Russian national chauvinists, who already accuse the Kremlin of failing to defeat Ukraine, nor ordinary citizens (no matter how “zombified” they are), who are increasingly suffering from the Kremlin’s military adventures. In addition, there is also Prigozhin, the founder of PMC Wagner, who lost a lot of his soldiers near Bakhmut and is no longer afraid of anything. His loud statements are already causing widespread discontent in the Russian Ministry of Defense. And soon they may become a catalyst for the spread of anti-Putin sentiments in the Russian society.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive is underway. Here’s what’s at stake.
Source: The Wall Street Journal

What can V. Putin and his puppets oppose to such “processes”? Firstly, to achieve a decisive victory at the front. Secondly, to conduct another information campaign to hide failures in the war and form the impression of victory. Thirdly, to suppress all dissent by harsh police methods. Fourthly, to take control of all sorts of PMCs and other irregular armed formations.

That’s exactly what Russia is trying to do.

For example, the Russian Armed Forces are struggling to restrain Ukrainian counteroffensive and continue to put pressure on certain sections of the front line. So far, the enemy has only managed to complicate and slow down the advance of Ukrainian troops, but not more than that.

As noted above, with the beginning of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russian propaganda imposed on the public the idea that “Ukraine does not have any success”. But when the advance of Ukrainian troops became apparent, the Kremlin’s propaganda narratives shifted somewhat. Now it claims that “the Armed Forces of Ukraine capture only those settlements that are in the gray zone and are not defended by anyone”. Based on previous experience, in the near future we can once again hear about the “war of all NATO against Russia”, and then about Moscow’s new “gestures of goodwill”.

New laws (or amendments to them) are systematically adopted, which increase responsibility for truthful coverage of events, which is called “discrediting the leadership of Russia and its security forces”. Although, again, such responsibility is purely demonstrative and selective in nature. Someone may be convicted of a poorly spoken word or a children’s drawing of an anti-war nature. And someone, like the founder of PMC Wagner Prigozhin, can openly demonstrate a negative attitude to the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense using personal brutal insults. And for this no one can do anything to him. Because, unlike ordinary citizens, he has an armed force behind him.

Now Moscow is trying to subordinate PMC Wagner to the Russian Ministry of Defense. But how can this be done in the context of an acute conflict between Prigozhin — on the one hand, and Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov — on the other? The situation is also complicated by the confrontation between PMC Wagner and Kadyrov’s armed formations, which are still formally part of the RF Armed Forces or Rosgvardia. Let alone the invasion of Russian rebels in Belgorod region of Russia, about which no one can do anything. It is reported that additional Russian troops are being sent there, although in reality they are being transferred from there to Bakhmut or to the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia region, where Ukrainian counteroffensive continues. And to counter the insurgents, Kadyrov militants are involved, who have repeatedly proved their “combat capability”.

All this was another important reason that prompted V. Putin to use “other methods” to achieve the goals of the “special military operation” in Ukraine. One of these was the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. By such an action, which, in fact, can be equated to the use of weapons of mass destruction, Russia tried to distract Ukraine’s attention and resources from the counteroffensive, as well as to free up part of its troops protecting the left bank of the Dnipro River for actions in more important directions of the front. As well as to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine. This is Russia’s only achievement. At least Moscow knows how to harm. This is how it has now harmed Ukraine, which is forced to evacuate thousands of people from the flood zone and faces the need to find financial resources to compensate the victims, to restore residential, transport and industrial infrastructure.

To a large extent, the opportunity to conduct effective agricultural activities in the region, which was previously one of the main centers for growing various grains and vegetables in Ukraine, has been lost. In the flood zone was part of the fertile land layer washed away by water, the other part was silted. And the leakage of water from the Kakhovka reservoir actually made it impossible to irrigate those lands that did not get the flood. And without this there will be no normal harvest.

Humanitarian Impact of the Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in Khersonska Oblast, 6 June 2023.
Source: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA)

And this applies not only to the Kakhovka reservoir. All other reservoirs on the Dnipro River are inextricably linked with it, where the water level also decreases. And this already leads to a drop in the capacity of hydroelectric power plants and, accordingly, an increase in the shortage of electricity in Ukraine (not to mention the environmental catastrophe created by Russia’s deliberate destruction of the Kakhovka dam).

However, despite all the problems created for our state, Russia has not been able to disrupt the beginning of the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops. Let’s hope it will be successful.