The Latest Issues of “BINTEL” Journal Have Been Published

The first and second issues of this year’s “BINTEL. Journal of Geopolitical Analytics” is practically this year’s only news that does not coincide with our long-standing tradition. All the rest, as it was once established and improved, in providing our readers with relevant information about modern geopolitics and the place that is now assigned to Ukraine on the political world stage. But it cannot be otherwise, because military actions caused by the attack of Russians are taking place on Ukrainian territory, and Ukrainians are constantly uniting to rebuff this attack, while at the same time trying to prove to the world the true grounds for the Russian-Ukrainian war.

This is emphasized in the Chief of the Editorial Council Olexandr Bielov’s introductory word: “In this issue, readers will find (and this is logical) an analysis of the facts related to Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, during which the attackers are trying to seize foreign territory, destroy or deport Ukrainians who have lived there since antiquity.

In the same context, are analyzed geopolitical trends regarding Finland, Moldova, Romania and the so-called Transdniestria. This is in interviews with our guests, who at one time made a lot of efforts to create and build an independent Ukraine. It is symbolic that this issue of “BINTEL” was being prepared for publication when the Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Russian President Putin and the Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the Russian President Lvova-Belova”.

This tone corresponds with the content of the first article entitled  “Russia’s New Offensive: Plans and Reality”,  by Ivan Sichen, well known to our regular readers. Under the heading “RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR”, he describes in detail and analyzes the hostilities taking place in the East of our state, at the same time summing up those fierce battles when the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not allow the invaders to advance deep into our country. Therefore, it is only natural that the material will attract the attention of a large readership. One paragraph at the beginning of the article is enough to have an idea of everything stated in it by the author. “…For all the time of hostilities since the beginning of 2023, Moscow’s greatest “success” was some advance of Russian troops in the Bakhmut direction. The consequence of their “achievements” is the destruction by the Defense Forces of Ukraine of up to 40 thousand Russian invaders and several thousand pieces of military equipment, artillery, armored vehicles, aircrafts, missiles and UAVs. In fact, the vast majority of mercenaries of the private military company (PMC) “Wagner”, as well as the military of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, were liquidated. The PMC plans to replenish the losses of its mercenaries with a voluntary-compulsory conscription of at least 30 thousand persons within the next two months. This is probably what can happen. There are a lot of zeks (prisoners — Transl.) in the Russian prisons or camps”.

And then he tells how the Russians are trying to compensate for their losses, what they are trying to do for this, how they want to keep the captured Ukrainian territories in their hands at the time when the Armed Forces of Ukraine go on the offensive, and how they will explain their failures not only to the world, but above all to their bewildered society.

At least four articles that follow are also related to the Russian-Ukrainian war, and have a common “coloring”. Namely: this way or other, they tell about relations with our neighbors in the West — Moldova and Romania. In his article  “Russia’s Onslaught” on Moldova. A New Direction of Threats to Ukraine”,  Yurii Mykhailenko describes the situation that has arisen in Moldova and how it affects Ukrainian-Moldovan relations. His colleague Serhii Rudiuk in his work  “Geopolitical Splits” of Transdniestria”  draws the reader’s attention to historical aspects that in one way or another caused the same situation, which, in particular, should be taken into consideration here, in Ukraine.

Yurii Mykhailenko writes that “Moldova sides with Ukraine in our military confrontation with Russia. In early March 2023, the Moldovan Parliament adopted a resolution condemning Russia’s armed aggression and declaring support for Ukraine. As for the political process of the Transdniestrian settlement, since the early 2010s, the Russian Federation has actually stopped it, thus trying to maintain its influence in Moldova through the so-called PMR. Therefore, Ukraine’s role as a negotiator in the Transdniestrian settlement has faded into the background, although it is well known that as long as Ukraine maintains its independence and ability to deter Russia, Moldova is secure from Russian military invasion”.

The author also analyzes in detail the political events in Moldova, indicates how neighboring Romania influences it, determines how Moldovan society needs to respond to those challenges that have arisen not without the participation of Russia. Special attention is paid to the role that the self-proclaimed Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (“PMR”) is trying to play today (with Moscow’s active help). After all, weapons and military equipment are stored on its territory, which, although not the newest at the moment, are quite suitable for use. And if we add here Moscow’s desire to create grounds for the invasion of Russian-Transdniestrian troops into Odesa region of Ukraine from Transdniestria, then it is quite obvious that we should not ignore such plans, regardless of how some people seek to deny the possibility of such events.

Moreover, as the article by the mentioned Serhii Rudiuk reads, “Ethnic Ukrainians make up a significant part of the half-million population of Transdniestria. Here they are an indigenous people and traditionally supportive of Ukraine”. Serhii Rudiuk reminds the reader of historical pages in the processes of emergence of state formations in those territories, especially he dwells on the events of the 20s and 40s of the last century, when no one asked Ukrainians whether they agreed to live in the Moldavian Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic as part of Ukraine in 1924 or in 1940 — in the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic, when the MASSR which was part of Ukraine united with Bessarabia.

In this regard, it is appropriate to draw attention to historical events, in particular, what happened in those areas, for example, in the 12^th or 13^th centuries, or when, already when “in the 14^th century, the Galician-Volhynian state fell under the attacks of foreign conquerors and Galicia was captured by Poland, and Volhynia — by Lithuania, the boyars and governors of the Galician Lower Reaches took responsibility for the fate of the region. And it was a heavy burden. Because here clashed the interests of Hungary, Poland, the Golden Horde (which was replaced by Turkey), and later — of Austria and Russia, and even England, France and Italy”. That is, the author rather meticulously covers the events of those years on the lands where history is also being written today and Russia is trying to interfere with the process.

Among other things, described in detail, the author recalls when the Moscow leaders laid a “time bomb” in the region, which is now called Transdniestria and is closely connected with Moldova and, actually, with the EU member — Romania.

And in order to bear in mind all the “colorfulness” of events in that region, let’s pay attention to the article by another, now permanent author of our journal, Professor Oleksandr Sahan entitled  “Urgent Problems in Relations Between the Romanian Orthodox Church and the Orthodox Church of Ukraine”.  To determine the author’s point of view, here are a few extracts from this article. The first paragraph: “The Romanian Orthodox Church (RomOC) has a certain history of the activity of its structures in the current Ukrainian territories. I mean in particular, Bukovyna, whose Orthodox communities were once part of the structural units of the Romanian Orthodox Church, and the history of this church in Ukraine during the Second World War”. And the second paragraph: “The activity of the Metropolis of Bessarabia in Ukraine (at present it is only three communities) now looks more like the UOC-MP’s problem than the OCU’s one. After all, about 120 Romanian-speaking communities are under the jurisdiction of the UOC-MP. However, there is a threat that in case of weakening of the UOC-MP (its removal from legal registration or prohibition of the activities of churches that are connected to the aggressor state, etc.), these communities may end up in the Metropolis of Bessarabia of the RomOC. Thus, a certain canonical conflict will arise — on the canonical territory of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which is defined by the Tomos of autocephaly, the activities of another local Orthodox Church may unfold. And, as it turned out, not the only one. The Moscow Patriarchate plots other similar scenarios for the transition of UOC-MP communities to conditionally “independent” communities, which will later come under jurisdiction of other churches”.

The Editorial Council of our journal is convinced that it will not be superfluous to add this information contained in the article by Professor Oleksandr Sahan to the above-mentioned historical pages, because it helps to better understand the background of the events taking place near the south-eastern borders of our state.

Also under the heading “INTERNATIONAL POLICY”, there is another article by Professor Myroslav Dnistryanskyi —  “The End of the Era of “Finlandization”.  Those, who are up to date on the subject, will immediately guess what the article of a member of our Editorial Council is about this time, especially against the background of Finland’s recent accession to NATO. And the subtitle no less eloquently complements the topic: “Changes in Finland’s Geopolitical Prospects As a Result of Russia’s Large-Scale Armed Aggression Against Ukraine”.

By the way, regular readers have long noted that the Professor always “keeps abreast” of current events and skillfully compares them with what is inherent in historical events in Ukraine — both current and those that are considered long gone. The latter today, as always, come out on top, reminding us that problems must be resolved in a timely manner, because over time they turn into tragedy. Even into the military one…

This is confirmed by the article of Professor, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Valerii Shvets. The author, as we have repeatedly seen, with mathematical punctuality seeks to cope with any urgent problem for the society. This time his article, published in our journal, is  “Why Does Ukraine Need Nuclear Weapons?”  We will not mention that this question has already been raised more than once, but it remains relevant, especially since in the preamble to his article the author quotes the famous saying of the French President General Charles de Gaulle: “A great state which does not possess them [nuclear weapons], while others have them, does not command its own destiny”.

The author also presents his vision of current events in Ukraine, predicts what awaits the Ukrainian society in the future, for example, after the end of hostilities. He affirms: there will be no peace, at best there will be a truce: “It will continue while Muscovy will be licking its wounds after its defeat, until we sink back into our traditional pacifism and weaken our defensive capabilities. And then again — the aggression of our eternal enemy on our land, his next attempt to physically exterminate Ukrainian people. This is my understanding of our past and future”.

And finally, about the guests in the editorial office of the “BINTEL” journal, this time there are two. The first interview was with former Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Anatolii Lopata entitled  “The War Has United Ukrainian People, the Ukrainian Nation and Finally Detached Us from Muscovy”.  Of course, it analyzes events related to the Russian-Ukrainian war. Let me remind you that our previous conversation with him took place on the eve of the Russian attack on Ukraine. We posted it on the pages of our journal, promising to return with Anatolii Oleksiyovych to the topic after some time, for example, when the war ends. Both sides kept their promises, however, the war did not end yet. Why? This is what our conversation was about, although not all of it is on the journal pages. This means that our communication with the retired General will continue. And it would be satisfying if next time — after the our Victory.

Now just a few sentences of Anatolii Lopata from the interview: “Preserving the integrity of Ukraine’s territory within the borders recognized by the world community is a fundamental issue. The leadership of our state is being attacked and will continue to be attacked by Russian lobbyists, who exist both in Europe and in the United States. President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has to hold the blow…

A well-known axiom: victory in battle is achieved by well-trained and armed people. Conversely, without modern weapons, the best people and patriots of their people will die on the battlefield”.

In an abridged version, this interview, as usual, will be posted on our website, as well as another interview with Vice President of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Serhii Pyrozhkov entitled  “Russia Has Never Considered Itself a Democratic Country. Always — Imperial and Authoritarian”.  We planned to talk with the Academician in general about the national security of our state, but during the conversation we delved into another topic, no less interesting than the profile one, and no less important. It turned out that Serhii Ivanovych was involved in the development of a new spelling of the Ukrainian language, changes in which caused controversy and even frank objections of colleagues. As for me, this is not surprising, because the rules of the language are no less, if not more precise and important than mathematical ones. And if you realize that the laws (or rather, the rules) of the language have an impact on Ukrainian consciousness, then it is impossible to overestimate their importance! During the preparation of the text of the interview for publication, I kept thinking that this process with the language “is on pause” and, sooner or later, responsible specialists will return to it.

The interview also discusses other themes, important for Ukraine, to which our respected scientists of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine were related. These are demography, and the development strategy of the state, and our relations with NATO, with the European Union, as well as Ukraine’s civilizational choice. By the way, the facts related to Moldova in the diplomatic work of Serhii Pyrozhkov, where my interlocutor stayed for some time and defended the interests of Ukraine at the diplomatic level, may be interesting to the reader.

As for the article  “Mystery of the Bloody MadneZZ. Epilogue”,  authored by Volodymyr Shevchenko, the former aide to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Doctor of Philosophy and Andrii Savarets, Chairman of the Center for Digital Economy Development, it completes extensive research work on the current state of the Russian Federation and the criminal activities of its leadership, which caused the Russian-Ukrainian war. The first part of the article appeared on the pages of our journal a year ago, and its subsequent parts were also presented on our website. The current part is also posted on the website of “Borysfen Intel” in an shortened version. Anyone who is interested in this research can find its full version in the journal in Ukrainian. By the way, on the website you can read the article in Russian too.

Oleh MAKHNO