Ivan Sichen
Ukraine is sincerely grateful to Western and other countries and international organizations for their assistance in repulsing Russia’s attack. The assistance has already allowed to cause catastrophic losses to the Russian army and to start the process of destroying the Russian economy. Humanitarian aid to Ukraine and the asylum of Ukrainian refugees in European countries are also important. This provides an opportunity to support the lives of civilians and to accommodate people who have been forced to leave their homes as a result of hostilities.
However, the West has not yet used all its tools to force Moscow to leave Ukraine alone. The reason for this is the psychological unwillingness of Western countries for a qualitatively new level of confrontation with Russia. It is to be hoped that our Western partners will understand this and take more decisive steps to contain and destroy Putin’s regime. Let’s see what those steps could be.
The failure of the Russian blitzkrieg in Ukraine completely dispelled the myth of the “invincible power” and “invincibility” of the Russian army. And it has already become “legendary” only in the sense of the legends that Russian propaganda tells about it. This was clearly shown by Russia’s war against Ukraine, when the Russian army first encountered an enemy capable of giving it a real rebuff.
And what can we say about the United States and NATO, which have much greater potential than Ukraine. If Russia dared to attack them, its armed forces would be destroyed within just a few days. At this, the Russian army and navy could in no way cause significant damage to Europe, let alone the United States. In particular, it would not be able to break into European countries, or hit them with missile and bomb strikes. Because if even Ukraine, with its limited military resources, has been able to stop the aggressor and provide reliable air defense, at least for the country’s capital, the United States and NATO can certainly do the same.
Therefore, the West should not be afraid of the possibility of direct confrontation with Russia, but talk to it only from a position of force. Especially since most of Russia’s combat-ready troops are already “stuck” in Ukraine and have lost at least 20–30 % of their personnel and equipment. Besides, the Russian armed forces have already spent most of the available stock of Caliber cruise missiles and Iskander-M ballistic missiles (which have not been as effective as Russian propaganda suggests) and are forced to switch to launching air-based cruise missiles from Tu-22M3 strategic aircrafts. And the Russians’ stock of such missiles is also limited.
It is quite obvious that the West is already beginning to understand this situation. Evidence of this is the change of the statements from the leaders of the United States, Great Britain, France and other leading Western countries, which recognize the above facts and express confidence in the victory of Ukraine. It is in order to hasten the final defeat of the Russian invaders, which will help ensure the security of the whole of Europe, that we need additional assistance from the West of a qualitatively new nature. How else can Western countries and international organizations help to meet Ukraine’s top needs?
Firstly, to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Much has been said about this, so we will not repeat the known facts and assessments. It should be noted that the majority of members of the US Congress and more than 70 % of American citizens are already in favor of a positive solution to this issue. The same sentiment is spreading among the British population. And once European NATO members are finally convinced that participating in a no-fly zone over Ukraine does not pose a direct risk to them (even if it formally means their direct involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian war), they will also agree to it. In this regard, the introduction of no-fly zones over Ukrainian nuclear power plants would be in the interests of the whole world, as their damage by Russian invaders would be a global catastrophe.
Secondly, to transfer to Ukraine tactical aircrafts, at least former Soviet-made ones. This will significantly strengthen the potential of the Air Force of Ukraine and allow it to seize the initiative. This issue is currently being resolved through negotiations between the United States and Poland. According to previous agreements, Poland can provide Ukraine with about 30 MiG-29 fighter jets if the United States compensates them with American aircrafts to be handed over to the Polish army. In principle, such an exchange is beneficial for Poland, as it will allow them to get rid of outdated Soviet weapons and strengthen their military capabilities by American fighter jets. As for Ukraine, experience shows that even obsolete MiG-29 fighter jets successfully shoot down “new” Russian Su-30SM, Su-34 and Su-35. Unfortunately, the US-Polish talks are complex and protracted. This is the main problem that needs to be addressed urgently.
Thirdly, to increase the supply of other weapons to Ukraine. This primarily applies to anti-tank and portable anti-aircraft missile systems, which allow the effective destruction of armored vehicles and combat aviation of the aggressor. Units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard and the Territorial Defense Forces, which do not have heavy weapons, are in particular need of such weapons. Unlike the previous two points, Ukraine has almost no difficulties with the supply of such weapons. According to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine O. Reznikov, “currently we have significant progress in the supply of weapons from abroad, which will be a “surprise” for the Russians”.
Fourthly, to divert Russia’s attention from Ukraine and disperse its forces by increasing US/NATO troops in Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics, conducting military exercises in the Russian direction, and conducting other military demonstrations. Such US/NATO actions will provide an opportunity to withdraw some Russian forces from Ukraine to cover the annexed Crimea, the Black Sea coast of the North Caucasus, Kaliningrad region and the Arctic region. This will disperse at least some forces and units of the 22nd Army Corps, coastal defense, aviation and naval forces of the Black Sea Fleet, the 49th and 58th Combined Arms Army and 4th Army of the Air Force and Air Defense of the Southern Military District, the 6th Combined Arms Army and units of the 1st Tank Army of the Western Military District, Marines of the Northern Fleet. Besides, the possibility of the Belarusian armed forces entering the war due to their reorientation to protect the western and northern borders of the country will be completely ruled out. Unfortunately, the United States/NATO is still refusing to take such measures because they do not want to provoke Russia. Despite this, we will hope for a change in their positions.
Fifthly, to strengthen cooperation with Ukraine in the sphere of intelligence. According to media reports, this is already being done in practice. In particular, the United States/NATO is transmitting to Ukraine data on the situation in Ukrainian airspace received from the radars of AWACS and F-35 aircrafts based in Poland. This allows for timely warning of the enemy’s air raids, as well as targeting anti-aircraft missile systems. However, the intelligence sphere is a rather delicate issue, so we will leave it to specialists.
Sixthly, to ensure sending of volunteers to Ukraine who can join the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Territorial Defense Forces. Today, none of the Western countries creates obstacles for its citizens who want to help Ukraine in its war of liberation against Russia. Due to this, a unit of the “Foreign Legion” has already been created, which is taking part in the fighting near Kyiv. It includes citizens of the United States, Great Britain, Sweden, Lithuania, Mexico and even India. It is important to continue this work and give it more scope. Thus, it is reported that about three thousand former US military are ready to come to Ukraine. They can form a professional brigade-level unit capable of operating effectively on the front lines.
Seventhly, to prevent the possibility of reaching any agreements between the West and Russia on the Ukrainian issue without Ukraine. Currently, this possibility is minimal. We would like it to remain so in the future.
And as a conclusion to the article, we would like to quote the words of the OSCE representative P. Massaro that Ukraine has saved the West and now the whole world has obligations to it.
