Russia will face new losses and new sanctions

Ivan Sichen

Russia’s continuation of the war against Ukraine causes further changes in the geopolitical situation in the world, which relate to the formation of a new system of international relations. But such a system acquires a completely different character than Moscow expected. In our previous publications, we already touched upon this topic. However, we would like to return to it once again, taking into consideration the latest events. Especially, since Moscow is not yet going to put an end to the war against Ukraine and is contributing to the deepening of world processes negative for it.

To begin with, let us recall once again what preceded and was the reason for Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. Generally speaking, Moscow’s attack on Ukraine was the quintessence of Putin’s neo-imperialist policy, which is the root cause of his aggressive actions against our state. The goals of such a policy have long been known, have been openly proclaimed by the Kremlin, and involve building a new form of “Russian Empire” with its exclusive sphere of influence in the world.

The failure of the Kremlin’s plans was a direct reason for Russia’s transition to attempts to achieve its goals by military means. Russia’s failure has become quite apparent in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, when Russia found itself in the worst position among other countries and was effectively pushed to the margins of the world civilization.

Since then, Moscow had begun preparations to destroy Ukraine as Russia’s main obstacle to its imperial path. Last December, the Kremlin directly acknowledged this in its ultimatums to the United States, NATO and Ukraine. As you know, under the guise of “ensuring Russia’s security”, they included demands to provide Moscow with written guarantees on: NATO’s refusal to expand (primarily, it concerns Ukraine); non-deployment of strike weapons near Russia’s borders; de facto expulsion for countries of the Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics from the North Atlantic Alliance.

Of course, neither the United States, nor NATO, nor Ukraine could meet such demands, which were completely contrary to their vital interests. This refusal was used by Russia to “justify” a new large-scale attack on Ukraine. Although today the Russian army, in fact, has already lost the initiative in the battle in Ukraine, Moscow is not abandoning its plans. In particular, in Putin’s words during a meeting with Austrian Chancellor Nehammer in Moscow, “Russia is forced to continue the war against Ukraine to ensure its own security”.

However, Russia’s war against Ukraine has led to completely opposite results than Moscow had hoped for, both in political and security sphere. This is fully shown by the nature of developments around the Russian Federation. For example, instead of reaching the level of a great world power, Russia has literally become a rogue state. In particular, the Russian Federation has already been expelled from the UN Human Rights Council and the Council of Europe. Besides, the United States insists on excluding Russia from G20.

Russia is also cut off from international financial institutions. The World Bank has suspended all its programs in the Russian Federation. And the International Monetary Fund has banned it from providing any funds.

Remember, disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT international interbank system, as well as depriving it of access to its own financial resources in foreign banks and the possibility of getting external loans.

Russia might be able to survive this obstruction. What does it care about the UN and the Council of Europe, if it disregards all norms of international law? It also retains the remnants of financial and economic potential, which allows the Russian economy to survive, at least until the end of 2022.

However, the real problem for Moscow in the context of its imperial ambitions is the loss of opportunities to pursue its foreign policy interests through the use of military force. Especially as the above-mentioned demands of Russia to “guarantee its security” were aimed at providing such opportunities.

At present, no one mentions these “guarantees” any longer. Moreover, even the conditional balance of power in Europe that existed until recently has been completely destroyed. It was unspoken, but provided for the West and Russia to take their key interests into account.

For example, even after Moscow’s first attack on Ukraine in 2014, the United States, NATO and the EU refrained from putting undue pressure on Russia, limiting their military presence in Europe, de facto abandoning further enlargement of the Alliance, and showing caution in deepening the military and military-technical cooperation with Ukraine.

In turn, Moscow limited its ambitions by strengthening Russia’s position in the post-Soviet space, continuing to put pressure on Ukraine (but without expanding its military invasion), demonstrating force in certain regions, and carrying out subversive work against NATO.

However, Moscow’s new aggression against Ukraine has led to fundamental and critically negative changes for Russia. Let’s look at this question in more detail.

Firstly, Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has consolidated the Western world on the basis of joint opposition to threats from Moscow. At this, most “allies”, “partners” or simply countries loyal to Moscow also oppose Russia, directly or indirectly. Apart from France, Germany or Italy, this applies even to China, which has, in fact, joined the Western sanctions against the Russian Federation. This completely ruined the Kremlin’s plans to “build a new world” where Russia and China could become superior to the United States and the collective West.

Secondly, NATO has returned to the issue of enlargement to the East. In particular, Finland and Sweden, which have previously tried to maintain a neutral status, may apply to join the Alliance in the near future. Russia quickly brought to consciousness its neutral neighbors. And now Russia’s border with the North Atlantic Alliance can increase by more than two thousand kilometers. And Allied troops will be close to St. Petersburg. Today, Russia has no capability to oppose the Alliance, as its forces are being actively destroyed in Ukraine.

Thirdly, the failure of Moscow’s attempts to pursue its strategic interests in Ukraine has finally confirmed that Russia’s “invincible military power” is a common fake of its propaganda. No one is afraid of Russia anymore or takes its threats seriously. That is why Ukraine’s partners continue to provide us with assistance, including the supply of various weapons. And Russia is losing the opportunity to achieve its foreign policy goals in the only way available to it – through the use of force.

Fourthly, the weakening of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet as a result of its losses has significantly reduced Moscow’s ability to maintain its dominance in the Black Sea region and project force into the Mediterranean region. In turn, this has largely offset the Kremlin’s “achievements” in seizing Crimea. And no one has lifted sanctions against Russia for annexing the peninsula.

Fifthly, as we have repeatedly mentioned, the war is returning to the Russian Federation itself. It has various forms and affects both the ruling elite of Russia and its oligarchies, as well as ordinary citizens. The result is an objective change in their moods and attitudes to Putin. Instead of “hooray-patriotism” there is growing frustration with the Kremlin’s actions and concern about the future.

And now where is Moscow’s international prestige and Russia’s world position? They are completely destroyed and Russia is unlikely to restore them not only in the near future, but in any other future. Here is the “great world power” with all its “spheres of influence”.

Today, the Putin regime is trying to change the situation in its favor with a new offensive in Ukraine, now only in the East and South of our country. However, it is also doomed to failure, at least within the goals that Moscow is trying to achieve. Therefore, Russia will face only new losses and new sanctions.