NATO Troops in Ukraine. Myth or Reality?

In the course of time, no one, except Moscow, will be surprised by the deployment of NATO military contingents to Ukraine

Ivan Sichen

Recently, the probability of NATO troops deploying to Ukraine has been widely discussed. At first glance, it is purely theoretical in nature, since the majority of NATO member countries are wary of such a step due to the threat of a direct military confrontation with the Russian Federation. However, “there’s no smoke without fire”. If such a topic has already voiced, then it should have been discussed at least at the level of NATO experts, who provide appropriate recommendations to the leaders of North Atlantic Alliance. And only after that, the leaders of NATO member countries publicly announce their views on whether NATO troops will be sent to Ukraine.

It seems unrealistic at the moment. But two years ago, sending to Ukraine of Western long-range artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, armored vehicles, air defense systems or long-range missiles, let alone combat aircrafts, seemed completely unreal. Now we already have or will soon have them, and they play a significant role in deterring and destroying the Russian aggressor. And nobody is surprised any longer. Therefore, in the course of time, no one, except Moscow, will be surprised by the deployment of NATO military contingents to our country. And that’s when Russia will really deal with the collective West.

As you know, President of France Emmanuel Macron was the first who openly stressed the need to deploy NATO troops to Ukraine. He emphasized France’s having no “red lines” in the providing assistance to Ukraine. In fact, Emmanuel Macron decided to publicly voice what has been obvious to everyone for a long time, but is ignored by some Western politicians. They try not to deal with the realities of the modern world, hoping that Russia will stop after the attack on Ukraine, while they will somehow hide behind our backs in convenient and safe Europe, or across the ocean in the United States of America.

If only! But the world is global in nature, and Russia’s war against Ukraine is making everyone feverish. So far, this has mostly been observed in the political, economic, social and humanitarian spheres, such as the breaking of previously mutually beneficial trade relations between Europe and Russia, the flow of refugees from Ukraine to the West, Moscow’s efforts to provoke a food crisis in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, etc. However, direct manifestations of the war are already happening in Europe. So far, they are mostly limited to the fall of debris of Russian missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles on the territory of Poland or Romania. In one of these cases, two Polish citizens were killed. But this is just the beginning. In case of Ukraine’s defeat, the Central and Eastern European countries and the Baltic States, which Russia openly calls its “lost territories”, would certainly become the next targets of Russian aggression. And then it would be the turn of Germany, Austria, France, Finland and other European countries.

Currently, Europeans are already de facto in a state of conflict with the Russian Federation in its global confrontation with the West. The confrontation of the parties can lead to any possible scenario. Some still do not believe in this and hope that Russia will not dare to attack Europe, as the USSR did not, even in the most dangerous times of the last Cold War. And this can somehow be understood. The Soviet Union’s attack on Europe, and even more so on the USA, would have inevitably led to a nuclear war. That is why the USA and the USSR reached a compromise during the “Caribbean Crisis” of 1962 and did not let it turn into a nuclear apocalypse. That is, no matter what the communist leadership of the former USSR was like, it still had common sense.

The Putin regime has absolutely no common sense at all. The current ruling elite of Russia consists of bloody maniacs like Putin himself and mentally ill persons like Medvedev, who are ready to destroy both their people and the whole world. Moscow threatens its opponents with the use of nuclear weapons in the event of a “threat to the existence of the Russian Federation” based on the principle “what for do we need a world without Russia”. However, no one asks the Russians themselves whether they are ready to die for such a Russia. Because a retaliatory nuclear strike, one way or another, would be inflicted by the West.

The North Atlantic Alliance will not be able to avoid a military confrontation with Russia. It’s just a matter of when and where it can happen. Now — on the territory of Ukraine, hundreds of kilometers from the current borders of the Alliance, or later — in Central and Eastern Europe and in Baltic States, and then in other NATO member countries. The leaders of France have already realized the reality of such a development and have begun to create a coalition of countries ready to send their troops to Ukraine. Plans to join such a coalition are being considered in Poland, Lithuania and Estonia, which are most threatened by Russian aggression. To a certain extent, they are supported by the Czech Republic, whose President Petr Pavel has stated that the presence of NATO troops on the territory of Ukraine will not violate any international rules.

So far, the initiators of the idea of sending NATO troops or the armed forces of individual member states of the Alliance to Ukraine do not have a common view on under what conditions and in what form this will happen. In particular, Emmanuel Macron considers such a possibility in case of the Russian troops’ breakthrough to the major cities of Ukraine. In this regard, he especially points out Ukrainian Odesa. Some other European politicians support sending Western military personnel to Ukraine to perform purely humanitarian tasks, such as mine clearance or rescue operations.

Although, no matter what, retired military of NATO member countries are already fighting on the side of Ukraine as part of the Foreign Legion. Before the full-scale Russian invasion, NATO units participated in military exercises on the territory of our country. Besides, NATO training missions were deployed to Ukraine. For their part, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine participated in most of the US/NATO military operations, including in the former Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Africa. And in the most difficult hot spots, where everyone else was simply helpless. Ukraine was not afraid to send troops to such missions, although Moscow tried in every possible way to hinder it.

That is, there is the necessary experience of Ukraine’s military cooperation with the North Atlantic Alliance. The necessary compatibility of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with NATO forces has also been achieved. Now it is only a matter of necessary political decisions. Of course, it is practically impossible to achieve at the level of the Alliance today. Unfortunately, Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on collective defense does not yet apply to our country. But at the national level of the NATO member countries, reaching an agreement on such an issue is quite possible. Ukraine, like any other state, can request military assistance from its partners and conclude relevant agreements. This will not be as effective as the sending of NATO troops to Ukraine, but it will still strengthen the defense capacity of our country. Moreover, the military personnel of NATO member countries do not necessarily have to take a direct part in hostilities. They can repair Western military equipment, service foreign air defenses, as well as long-range missile and artillery systems, work at rear communication posts, command and control posts, etc. And only trained volunteers will go to the front line.

Even such a limited approach will allow the NATO member countries to make a significant contribution in the repelling Russia’s aggression by Ukraine, exhausting Russia’s reserves and keeping the Russian troops at a considerable distance from the national borders of NATO member countries. In addition, the sending of troops of individual NATO member countries to Ukraine will become a precedent and an example for the entire Alliance. To begin with, the NATO Response Force, which include a high-readiness land, sea, air, and special forces units, can be sent to Ukraine in the most dangerous directions of Russia’s attack. The second echelon will consist of other elements of the NATO Response Force and, if necessary, conventional forces as well.

If such a scenario is realized, it will ultimately make Russia’s ability to continue its expansion impossible, since it will not be able to defeat the combined forces of Ukraine and NATO. As has been reported, currently the Russian defense industry is unable to produce a sufficient number of armored vehicles, artillery, aircrafts and helicopters, as well as other heavy weapons to compensate for the losses at the front. And Russian long-term warehouses of armored vehicles are almost half empty.

At the same time, Russia will lose the opportunity to establish control over Ukraine, which will actually become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance. And finally, Putin’s “nightmare” about NATO troops on the Russian borders will come true.

Moscow cannot fail to understand the reality of such prospects, but it cannot prevent the deployment of NATO troops on the territory of Ukraine. That is why Putin once again began to threaten the USA and Europe with nuclear weapons. Such a nuclear threat from the Kremlin is just an empty sound, because it will never dare to implement it in reality. Although, such Russia’s threats really worry the leaders of some European countries. However, no matter what, Europe and NATO are in debt to Ukraine, which remains the cornerstone of European security and the only force restraining Russia’s military expansion into the territory of other European countries.