In Georgia, the Policy of the Ruling Team Is Bound to Cause Mass Public Protest

Ivanishvili’s team may continue to try to deactivate protest public sentiments. But this may not work if they do not change their policy towards Moscow

Mykhailo Basarab

Recent mass protests in Georgia have shown that after ten years of rule, Georgian Dream’s relations with the country’s citizens are entering a zone of turbulence. Although the reason for the mass protests was the government’s draft law on so-called foreign agents, the real reasons for Georgian society’s dissatisfaction with the authorities lie much deeper.

Firstly, the general context of negative attitudes to the authorities is caused by electoral fatigue. When the same team has been in power for a long time, it is increasingly difficult for it to surprise voters with something, to propose new ideas and solutions. The baggage of negative stories and scandals that accompany the activities of any ruling team is accumulating. All this causes the society’s objective desire to get rid of the familiar and already uninteresting and, at the same time, creates openness to fresh political trends and proposalss.

Secondly, despite Georgia’s good macroeconomic indicators last year, for the ordinary Georgians’ citizens a socio-economic situation has deteriorated. Against the background of rising prices, the purchasing power of an ordinary Georgian family has decreased. To some extent, this was a consequence of the sudden arrival in Georgia of a large number of solvent Russians. According to data from various open sources, over the past year, from 150 to 300 thousand Russian citizens could settle in Georgia. For a country with a population of less than 4 million, this figure is significant.

Thirdly, (and this is the main reason for the problems in relations between the Georgian authorities and the society), the majority of Georgians’ discontent has been accumulating as a result of the Georgian ruling team’s constant loyalty to Russia. Despite the Bidzina Ivanishvili team’s attempts to declare its commitment to a pro-Western foreign policy course, the real policy of official Tbilisi is beneficial for the Kremlin. Georgian authorities have avoided certainty in its attitude to the Russian-Ukrainian war. The Prime Minister of the country with his constant statements chose a clearly anti-Ukrainian position.

Western media spread information that Georgia was helping Russia circumvent sanctions. Russian business owns huge assets in the most important power generating and power distributing enterprises of Georgia, influences important infrastructure and industrial enterprises. Georgia’s economic dependence on Russia is increasing. In 2022, the share of trade with Russia reached its highest value in the last 16 years. The share of the Russian market in the structure of exports of Georgian wines in 2022 increased by 68 %. Last year, about fifteen thousand Russian companies were registered in Georgia, which is 16 times more than in 2021.

Therefore, such a great dependence on Russia dissonates with the society’s sentiments in Georgia. According to a sociological survey by the International Republican Institute conducted at the end of 2022, 78 % of Georgians are in favor of their country’s accession to NATO, and 85 % are in favor of joining the EU. According to Georgians, the three most important political partners of Georgia are the EU, the USA and Ukraine. 89 % of Georgians believe that the greatest external threat to their country comes from Russia. The same ratio of public sentiment in Georgia is confirmed by the data of the autumn survey of the National Democratic Institute. Also, according to an NDI survey conducted in September 2022, among the obstacles to European integration, Georgians most often pointed to the government’s not having political will.

As a result, we have a situation where the ruling team, which causes electoral fatigue in the society, adheres to a foreign and security policy that categorically contradicts the world views and ideological attitudes of the majority of citizens. Such a disposition will continue to generate tension in the country, when any mistake or unsuccessful action of the authorities will disturb society with lightning speed. In response, the authorities will try to prevent public protest or extinguish any of its manifestations. This will certainly lead to excessive violence and restrictions, which, in turn, will become new reasons for public discontent. Thus, the situation confidently follows an upward trajectory along a spiral of confrontation.

Therefore, we are definitely watching the maturation of a systematic and prolonged civil protest in Georgia. An obstacle to structuring mass protest today is the lack of a leader or leaders with a high level of public trust. Representatives of the previous ruling team did not undergo reputational rehabilitation. Neither Mikheil Saakashvili nor other well-known representatives of his political team have the necessary support yet. The opposition field is sufficiently fragmented so it cannot act as a single team. After all, leaders are not appointed. They rise due to natural social processes. If the conflict of the leadership of the country with the majority of citizens has an objective basis, then mass protest of the civil society and emergence of leaders of this protest are inevitable.

Bidzina Ivanishvili’s team may continue to try to deactivate protest public sentiments by populist actions or intimidation by a possible war with Russia. But this may not work if they do not change their policy towards Moscow. In this case, it will not be possible to avoid a systemic conflict with the society. Especially during the Russian-Ukrainian war and in the context of the escalation of the confrontation between Russia and the entire West, when the majority of Georgians traditionally have a pro-Ukrainian and pro-Western moods.