“Russian Reserves Have Been Burnt in Bakhmut” — Ivan Sichen

Ivan Sichen, an expert of the Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel”, for Gazeta.ua

 

The Russians reduced the pressure on Bakhmut and our defenders fulfilled the main task there — they exhausted the enemy’s reserves. Now they are testing our forces in Avdiivka. Every time after such battles, the Armed Forces of Ukraine eventually launch a counteroffensive — this was the case after Mariupol, Lysychansk, and now the same will happen after Bakhmut. Russia has started a new wave of mobilization, but they lack equipment and uniforms for recruits. Moscow’s threatening with a “war of attrition” is a bluff to put us and the West at the negotiating table on Russian terms. The army and economy of the Russian Federation are gradually degrading. Delaying the war may end in the collapse of Russia itself. This was told in an interview to Gazeta.ua by a military expert, Colonel (retired) Ivan Sichen.

 

— Heavy fighting continues in Bakhmut. At the same time, the pace of Russian attacks has slightly decreased compared to recent weeks. One of the key achievements of the latest Ukrainian operations was throwing away of Russian mercenaries of the Wagner PMC from the important road through which Ukrainian defenders were provided, according to the British Ministry of Defence. Did Ukraine manage to withstand the Russian attack on the city?

— “Yes, it did. But the main thing is that Russian troops were exhausted there. The potential that has been accumulated since the beginning of mobilization last autumn. It was largely lost near Bakhmut. Therefore, our defenders fulfilled the main task of the fortress city — they burned Russian reserves.

In fact, the situation of last summer is repeated. When the enemy tried to occupy Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk. Instead, they lost potential there, so they had to take an operational pause. Mariupol played the same role in its time, having tied up large forces of the Russians.

…The General Staff alone knows where the expected offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will take place…

After that, we made preparations in the summer, and in the autumn Ukraine managed to conduct two counterattacks. Most of Kharkiv and the right bank of Kherson region were liberated.

The same thing is happening now. While ours are defending Bakhmut, we are forming reserves. In particular, with the help of Western weapons. I think that over time there will be a counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and they will be able to liberate those territories.

The General Staff alone knows where the expected offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will take place. Apparently, somewhere in the south. For us, the Russian “land corridor” to the Crimean Peninsula is important. This can be achieved.

— At the same time, the situation has worsened in Avdiivka, where enemy artillery works non-stop. If earlier the enemy inflicted periodic airstrikes, now it is doing so systematically. Russia is trying to surround or wipe out another city in the Donbas. So they are testing our defense, look for weaknesses along the front line?

…Now the second wave of mobilization has begun in Russia. They are trying to mobilize by the new year additional 400 thousand military…

— Yes, they see that they cannot achieve anything in Bakhmut. They have little progress there at a very expensive price. Therefore, they are looking for other places. In Avdiivka, our defenders also hold the line of defense. The Russians will not be able to achieve anything there.

Now the second wave of mobilization has begun in Russia. They are trying to mobilize by the new year additional 400 thousand military. They have big problems with the shortage of weapons and military uniforms for the newly mobilized. AK will still be found, but stocks of armored vehicles are exhausted. They even began to remove from storage tanks T-54 and T-55, which are almost 70 years old. This is just a pile of scrap metal against modern anti-tank systems. They are not protected, there is not a single newest equipment. Over the decades, parts of the obsolete equipment have already rusted.

…We need the F-16s so much to cover the counteroffensive…

— President Volodymyr Zelenskyi says that Ukraine currently lacks forces for a counterattack, because it needs more artillery shells and fighter jets. Is this a call for partners to urgently give more equipment, weapons and ammunition?

— Of course, it is. At the beginning of the invasion, we had had about 10 times fewer fighter jets than Russia did. The enemy has heavy losses among the aircrafts, and so do we. Moreover, our combat aviation is older than the Russians’. We do not have aircraft factories that would produce and modernize them. We have only repair facilities. That’s why we need the F-16s so much to cover the counteroffensive.

As for artillery shells, this is an eternal need. Their stocks are exhausted. And for an active offensive, there are calculations of how many of them we should have in stock. Partly we still use the remnants of the Soviet ones, we produce something, partners supply us with something. But we need a lot with our intensity of fighting.

Ivan Sichen is a military and political analyst, expert of the Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel”.

He has a higher military education. For more than 30 years he served in information units in the military intelligence of the USSR and Ukraine. He was a deputy director of the information and analytical department of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.

Retired Colonel.

— Will we be able to do without F-16 aircrafts during the counteroffensive?

— We will compensate for the needs for aircrafts with other weapons systems — artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, combat drones and air defense. During our repulses of enemy attacks and our own counterattacks, we were able to partially replace fighter jets with Bayraktar combat drones, HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems. Since the beginning of the invasion, we have been burning Russian tanks with Western anti-tank NLAW-type systems without any problems.

…Poland and Slovakia are handing over to us their modernized MiGs, which will partially compensate for the needs in the sky…

With aviation, the offensive is much easier. It provides undoubted advantages. But one can do without it, if there are other weapons systems.

President Zelenskyi will not tell about everything we have. He only asks partners for what we need, in the hope of receiving. Surprises are being prepared for the enemy.

We’ll probably get the F-16, but not now. Now, fortunately, Poland and Slovakia are handing over to us their modernized MiGs, which will partially compensate for the needs in the sky.

Not only pilots need to be trained for the F-16. But also personnel who can support them, spare parts, appropriate fuel, ammunition. We don’t have this, because this is a completely different type of aircrafts than those that are currently in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine — Su and MiG aircrafts. Therefore, it is a very complicated matter that takes a lot of time.

— There are no plans to strengthen mobilization in Ukraine at the moment, said Fedir Venislavskyi, a member of the Verkhovna Rada’s National Security and Defense Committee. Do we have enough trained troops to repulse enemy attacks and to prepare reserves for a future offensive?

…Although we have young men and girls dying. However, most of the military at the front are 40–55 years old…

— We are actively forming new forces and units. At the western training grounds we train our military with Western equipment. We also coordinate various types of forces — tanks, artillery, UAVs. This is a rather complicated, voluminous and lengthy process.

Full-scale mobilization has been announced since the beginning of the invasion and it does not stop. Mostly volunteers are sent to the front line. Unlike Russia, our soldier may refuse to go to the dangerous positions. He is then mostly sent to safer places.

Although we have young men and girls dying. And, unfortunately, quite a lot. However, most of the military at the front are 40–55 years old. They are conscious, motivated, already have certain skills and abilities.

They also fight on the front with rotations, weekly, or every 10 days. If newcomers come in and someone is afraid to go to the most dangerous positions, he can write a report that he is “morally not ready”, and there are no punishments for this.

The Russians just use “cannon fodder”, which is not asked anything. Among them there are many young people from poor “out-of-the-way places” and national republics.

It seems that our prepared reserves are enough. Even if the Russians mobilize another 400 thousand, they will not break through.

Last year’s mobilization in the Russian Federation of 300–400 thousand reservists revealed serious problems — a lack of labor in certain specialties, because they took all in a row. They took tractor drivers from the agricultural sector to make them tank drivers. Then, it turned out that there was no one to work in the fields. They drove away drivers, mechanics. If such a trick is cranked up again, certain sectors of the economy will simply stop.

— Western media write that Ukrainian counteroffensive may begin in late April – early May. Is time pressuring on us to start it sooner?

…Our defenders so far have successfully been restraining and grinding the enemy…

— Of course, many in our country would like to liberate their land and people from occupation as soon as possible. But the beginning of the operation is not of great critical importance for us. Our defenders so far have successfully been restraining and grinding the enemy.

The main thing for us is to prepare normal combat-ready units so that they can conduct such an offensive. We cannot afford to throw untrained soldiers into battle, as the Russians do.

…The time is playing against Russia. Moscow says that Western sanctions are ineffective, but they have a cumulative effect. Every day they undermine their economy…

Now the time is playing against Russia. Moscow says that Western sanctions are ineffective, but they have a cumulative effect. Every day they undermine their economy.

We see that sanctions are working. Just not as fast as we’d like. Not in a week or a month, but they weaken the Russians.

No one will help the Russians now. China may supply some dual-use components to Russia through third countries. But by sea through Europe — it won’t, and by train by land — it takes longer, is more expensive and logistically more difficult.

As trading partners, the USA and the EU are much more important for China than Russia is. So Beijing is trying to avoid Western sanctions.

It is profitable for the Chinese to buy Russian oil and gas with huge discounts. Almost taking it for free. For other countries, such as India, too.

But Western countries have clearly said that the PRC will have huge problems if it turns out that the Chinese are supplying weapons to the Russian Federation. So far, the threat is working.

— CIA analyst Douglas London writes in the WSJ that talks about a “war of attrition” on the part of the Russian leadership is intimidation to put Ukraine and the West at the negotiating table on Russian terms and freeze the war.

…The USSR fought in Afghanistan for almost 10 years. This ended in the collapse of the country. If Putin also delays the war in Ukraine, it will end in the collapse of Russia…

— I agree that Russia is trying to bluff, as if it is ready to fight in Ukraine for a very long time. But I don’t think that anyone else will believe on Russian tricks, or the Kremlin will be able to bargain for something.

The USSR fought in Afghanistan for almost 10 years. This ended in the collapse of the country. If Vladimir Putin also delays the war in Ukraine, it will end in the collapse of Russia.

Perhaps the Russians will try to delay defeat as long as possible. This is a war of resources. We are backed by the power of Western countries. I do not believe that there will be a split in their camp, or that they will stop supporting us. They have a total of many times more resources than in Russia. Therefore, the Russian Federation’s resources will run out faster than ours. If we were alone, we wouldn’t have a chance to win. But with the support of about 50 developed countries, Moscow has no chance.

In fact, already now the Russians are trying to get out of the impasse, but do not know how. They want on their own terms, but this is impossible.

The enemy was knocked out of Kharkiv region. They were forced to retreat from the right bank of Kherson region. And not just so, — they lacked the resources to keep those territories. The same story with Zmiinyi Island. And even earlier — with Kyiv region and the north of Ukraine. After a certain time, they will have no resources to fight at all.

…Russians often say that their weapons “have no analogues in the world”. True, because no one uses such a rubbish in war, except perhaps some African countries…

We also have problems, but with the financial and military support of the West we can win. We are given modern weapons. The Ukrainian troops are getting stronger, while the Russian army is getting weaker. Even outdated Western weapons are much better than what the Russians are fighting with.

Russians often say that their weapons “have no analogues in the world”. True, because no one uses such a rubbish in war, except perhaps some African countries. It just turns into a war of armies of different generations. They are saved only by mass — people and stocks of obsolete weapons.

Author: Ihor Tymots

Source: Gazeta.ua

The article is available in Russian

 

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