Strategic Approaches to Ensure Ukraine’s Energy Independence Through the Extraction of Methane Hydrates in the Black Sea

vraevski

Olena Mykhailiuk
Odesa National University of Economics

 

The events of the last two years testify to the significant danger of the “Russian theory of energy connectors”, developed for domination in Europe. If successful, this should have led to catastrophic losses of energy security by the countries of the region. Therefore, there is an urgent need for new alternative energy sources. One of such potential, and to some extent even hypothetical, is the technical ability and economic feasibility of using the energy potential of the resource of the Black Sea bottom — methane hydrates.

But first of all, we point out once again: the world community has long felt the need for new energy sources to ensure its energy security. Today, such security has even become an important factor of foreign policy not only in Ukraine. As for the currently known fossil fuels, they will play a leading role in the energy balance for a long time. Thus, according to forecasts of Exxon Mobil experts, the consumption of such energy resources on the planet in the next 30 years will increase by at least 50 %. And then the world’s reserves of oil and natural gas on land will run out, which will force people to look for new non-renewable resources. It is not for nothing that the leading countries of the world have recently begun to pay great attention to strengthening their energy security by introducing the latest energy saving technologies and looking for new types of fuel and energy. In particular, one of the potential energy sources is methane hydrates reserves of the oceans and in the permafrost of the Northern Hemisphere.

Note:

CH4 reserves in the ocean currently amount to ≈ 1600–2000 PgC (petagrams of carbon). Most deposits, varying in size, are hidden in permafrost and in sediments on the ocean floor along continental margins, where shallow coastal waters descend to deeper ocean floors. Almost 99 % of them outside Antarctica are in sediments along continental slopes, at depths of more than 500 meters in mid-latitudes and 300 meters in higher latitudes. The remaining 1 % occurs in polar latitudes, mainly in permafrost soils on land and under the Arctic Ocean.

Location at the moment of the main such reserves:

  • western shelf of Europe, stretching towards Eyre and Iceland. Methane hydrates are expected to be retained in the Mediterranean, including parts of the Adriatic, Tyrrhenian, Aegean and Marmara seas;
  • west coast of America, from Alaska to Chile;
  • east coast of North America, which includes almost all the Caribbean islands;
  • the coast of Argentina, Uruguay and southeastern Brazil;
  • the entire coast of Africa in all directions, including the Red Sea and Madagascar;
  • everywhere near the South Asian Peninsula, including large areas of the Arabian and Bengal Seas;
  • areas off the coast of South Korea, Japan and the Russian islands north of Japan, including the Kamchatka shelf;
  • almost all water areas, oceans and seas around ASEAN countries;
  • coastal zones of Australia and New Zealand.

 

There are also reserves of hydrates in the Black Sea, where a number of countries of the Black Sea region, primarily Ukraine, Turkey and Romania, will eventually be able to claim their development. That is why we should now take care of the development and implementation of modern economically sound technology for methane extraction from gas hydrates.

General Characteristics of the Energy Potential of the Ukrainian Shelf of the Black and Azov Seas

First, we should point out that Ukraine has quite a variety of its own energy resources, which so far are not used well enough: what is extracted or purchased is not energy efficiently consumed. Existing potential resource reserves are exploited at a low rate due to lack of investment.

In 2011, the initial potential resources of Ukraine’s hydrocarbons in terms of equivalent fuel were estimated at 9,322.7 million tons, including oil with gas condensate of 1643.4 million tons (17.6 %) and free gas — 7 254.3 billion m3 (77.8 %). The initial proven hydrocarbon reserves amounted to 3501.1 million tons of equivalent fuel; the initial resources of oil are explored by 37 %, of free gas — by 39 %, and the degree of production (part of accumulated production in the initial potential resources) amounted to respectively 27.4 and 25.5 %, in total — 7004.3 million tons of equivalent fuel (75.1 %). The initial potential resources remain in the subsoil, of which 5821.6 million tons of equivalent fuel are classified as unexplored. A significant part of hydrocarbon resources (27 %) is concentrated at depths of 5–7 km. 7043.5 million tons of initial potential hydrocarbon resources, or 75.5 % of their total, are on land, and 2279.2 million tons (24.5 %) — on the shelf of the Black and Azov Seas.

Note:

Ukraine today ranks second in Europe in terms of natural gas reserves. At the end of 2019, explored Ukrainian deposits contained 1.09 trillion m3 of natural gas. In terms of this volume, Ukraine is second only to Norway in Europe, whose reserves amount to 1.53 trillion m3.

Methane deposits in the Black Sea are found at depths of 300–1000 m. In the central deep-water part of the Black Sea, reserves are estimated at 20–30 trillion m3, and in general, the Black Sea contains 60–80 trillion m3 of this gas. The expected reserves in sedimentary rocks alone in the Ukrainian part of the Black Sea bottom are 7–10 trillion m3.

The initial total hydrocarbon resources of the Ukrainian sector of the Black and Azov Seas in 2011 were approved by the interdepartmental expert commission in the amount of 1531.9 million tons of equivalent fuel, including:

  • northwestern shelf of the Black Sea — 604.1 million tons of equivalent fuel;
  • continental slope and deep basin of the Black Sea — 346.0 million tons of equivalent fuel;
  • Kerch shelf of the Black Sea — 257.0 million tons of equivalent fuel;
  • water area of the Sea of Azov — 324.8 million tons of equivalent fuel.

Due to the low degree of exploration of the Azov-Black Sea region, the development of initial resources does not exceed 4 %. Potential reserves of gas hydrate deposits of the Black Sea shelf are estimated at up to 65–70 trillion m3. This is an area of the deep-water Crimean part of the Black Sea. Reserves of gas hydrate deposits amount to more than 20 trillion m3. Large reserves of methane hydrate in the paleodelta of the Dnipro River are also forecast.

Methane hydrate is a clathrate compound of methane with water. If methane hydrate is heated, or the pressure rises, the compound decomposes into water and natural gas (methane). From one cubic meter of methane hydrate at normal atmospheric pressure, 164 m3 of natural gas can be obtained.

World Experience in the Evaluation of Deposits and Production of Methane Hydrates

One of the regions of potential hydrate production is the Arctic. Five states are actively competing for control of the Arctic, which have direct access to the Arctic Ocean. They are Russia, Canada, the USA, Norway and Denmark. All in all, more than 20 states want to develop minerals of the Arctic shelf. It is assumed that the struggle for the Arctic shelf in the near future may lead to a new Cold War.

The United States, Japan, India, Canada have national programs for the study and industrial development of natural methane hydrates. According to British Petroleum, the available reserves of natural gas on the North American continent, where its annual consumption is more than 770 billion m3 (about 30 % of total consumption in the world), will last only for decades. Therefore, the governments of the United States, Canada, as well as Mexico are making great efforts to find ways to provide their economies with energy resources. According to some calculations of the US Department of Energy, there are about 6,000 trillion m3 of methane hydrate in that country, which is a hundred times more than natural gas reserves. The problem is that its extraction is technologically difficult, dangerous and therefore quite expensive.

It is appropriate to remind here that Canada and Japan were partners in the search for methane from hydrates. Since 2000, Natural Resources Canada has invested more than $16 million in the venture. Between 2002 and 2008, Japan spent about $60 million to finance production tests in the Canadian Arctic. In 2012, the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) achieved an important milestone by successfully completing a production test of methane hydrate using new Canadian extraction techniques..

Norway and South Korea are also engaged in the development of a new type of fuel. There is no doubt that this list will expand every year, and the development of gas hydrates will contribute to the economic development of individual countries.

Japan, in accordance with the provisions of the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, intends to expand its exclusive economic maritime zone and obtain the right to natural resources of the shelf. First of all, it is an opportunity to establish control over methane hydrate reserves, which over time can guarantee the country’s energy security.

In 2011, Japan, together with the United States, Canada, Germany and India, implemented a permafrost gas extraction project near the Canadian province of Mackenzie to find out whether commercially viable extraction of methane hydrate is possible. In March 2013, Japan became the first country to announce the successful continuous production of methane gas from a solid layer of methane hydrate located below the deep-ocean floor, which confirmed the technical feasibility of this new natural resource and its new extraction technology.

According to experts, gas reserves contained in methane hydrates are 100 times larger than gas reserves from traditional deposits, which may make it impractical to import natural gas from other countries.

At the moment, the United States is focused on shale gas production, but potential benefits from the prospects for gas hydrates are also being taken into consideration.

In the Arctic regions of the United States and Canada, experimental plants for the extraction of methane hydrate have been launched, which have already produced the first batch a new type of fuel in Alaska.

On Ukraine’s Experience in Technical Developments of Gas Hydrates Extraction

The Black Sea is also rich in methane deposits. In some of its areas, in 1988–1989, exploration organizations discovered methane hydrate deposits at depths of 300–1000 m below the deep-sea floor. In the central deep-water part of the Black Sea, methane hydrates reserves are estimated at 20–30 trillion m3, and in general, according to geologists, the Black Sea contains 60–80 trillion m3 of this gas.

In 1993, the Government of Ukraine approved the Resolution on the implementation of the “Gas Hydrates of the Black Sea” program, which provided for extensive geological exploration and creation of technologies for the gas production. The relevant state program of fundamental research “Gas Hydrates of the Black Sea” was adopted, a business plan for investors was developed, seismic studies were carried out on large structures with huge reserves of gas hydrates, several scientific expeditions were conducted. However, the lack of funds and the indifference of the authorities made it impossible to practically approach the development of production technology.

To resolve this problem, our scientists were actually involved on a voluntary basis. Thus, in 2002, experts of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine developed the “National Program for the Development of the Mineral Resource Base of Ukraine for the Period up to 2010”, in which an important place was given to the study of natural gas reserves of the Black Sea shelf. This program was approved by the Verkhovna Rada as a law of Ukraine (entered into force on January 1, 2007).

In 2000, the Law of Ukraine “On Alternative Liquid and Gas Fuels” was adopted, which determined “legal, social, economic, environmental and organizational principles of production and consumption of alternative types of liquid and gas fuels based on the attraction of non-traditional sources and types of fuel”, and which was aimed at creating the necessary conditions for expanding production and consumption of these types of fuel in Ukraine.

In 2006, the Odesa State Academy of Refrigeration and the research firm Lid-Hazohidrat developed an original business plan for a profitable innovative project “Methane — from the Black Sea Gas Hydrates”. Its implementation in just one small gas production plant could produce 0.97 billion m3 of methane per year.

At the end of 2006, a business plan was developed, which detailed the development costs and profitability of the project. It was designed for fifteen years, of which the first four — for the development, design and construction of a gas production plant, also in the third year — to start production of melt water; another eleven years — for methane production.

Already at the first stage of the project, it was possible to produce up to 1 billion m3 of methane annually and sell it at gas stations. At the second stage (it is still difficult to determine how long after the beginning of the project it will start), it was planned to increase gas production to 40 billion m3 per year, but this would require $2.8 billion investments.

The Centre for Energy of the Future of the I. M. Frantsevich Institute for Problems of Materials Science of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (Kyiv) developed other, no less attractive projects with the participation of foreign and domestic investors. In particular, the International Scientific and Technical University (Kyiv) developed the national program of development in Ukraine of fuel cell technologies “Fuel Cells” which can also be used for the extraction of methane hydrates in the Black Sea.

Environmental Risks of the Project

The extraction of methane hydrates from the seabed raises the question of risks and hazards to the environment, including the possibility of destabilizing the seabed, underwater landslides and tsunamis.

During the extraction of methane from the seabed, there is, for example, a real danger of gas hydrates raising to the surface, which can lead to explosive gas release. According to one probable version, it was this rise of the gas hydrates that caused the explosion and destruction of the Deepwater Horizon platform in April 2011. Some experts advise not to touch gas hydrates at all, as this can cause significant emissions of methane into the atmosphere, which is 20 times more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. If methane from gas hydrates escapes into the atmosphere in large quantities, the process of the greenhouse effect and the destruction of the ozone layer will accelerate by 20 times.

Scientists are actively discussing the hypothesis of the possible release of methane hydrate with rising temperatures due to global warming — the so-called clathrate gun hypothesis. Methane is a greenhouse gas, and its massive release will lead to further warming and even greater release of methane. It is impossible to stop this process, and as a result of global warming, a global environmental catastrophe can occur.

An example of the negative consequences of human intervention in gas hydrates are the greatest accidents during research expeditions. For example, in 1989, Saga Petroleum a.s. suffered losses of $90 million from drilling a well in the north of the Norwegian Sea. It was the release of large amounts of gas from the accumulation of gas hydrates in seabottom sediments, that, according to a number of researchers, led at one time to the destruction of production platforms in the North and Caspian Seas.

It is hypothetically possible to use marine methane hydrates as a method of warfare by submarines. Accelerated destabilization of gas hydrates needs only simple explosions due to laying mines or dropping bombs from the air. The consequences of such processes and tsunamis will be more devastating than from explosions of atomic and nuclear weapons.

Conclusions and Suggestions

Ukraine will always face the problem of energy supply, so seeking new energy carriers is urgent. Continuation of research in the field of development of gas hydrates extraction technology will allow us to hope for the extraction of this resource both from the bottom of the Black Sea and in the World Ocean in the future. According to scientists, methane of gas hydrate layers of the Black Sea in the future can serve as a promising source of gas for the Crimea and Ukraine. And the development of gas hydrate deposits can become no less profitable than the development of large free gas fields.

The cost of methane extraction from gas hydrates in the Black Sea can be no more than $54 per 1 thousand m3 of fuel.

The available theoretical developments of Ukrainian scientists and the actual data obtained by them in the process of studying gas hydrates of the Black Sea require comprehensive experimental studies in order to introduce technologies for industrial extraction of methane from Black Sea gas hydrates for the needs of the national economy of our country in the future.

Sooner or later, Ukraine will have to return to this urgent problem. However, by that time there should already be a solid foundation, which should be laid today.

The full article you can read in the “BINTEL” Geopolitical Analytics Journal

 

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