Presidential Election in Russia

Assessments and Conclusions

Ivan Sichen

In March 2024, another presidential election was held in Russia, of course, if it can be called “election” at all. It also took place in Ukraine’s territories occupied by the Russian Federation. At this, according to the Kremlin’s propagandists, the election turnout and the degree of support for Vladimir Putin was even higher there than in the Russian Federation itself. As expected, it is Putin that by results of the voting was the “winner” once again.

Currently, many experts are trying to predict what will happen after this election in Russia itself and what changes its politics will undergo. Nothing will happen and there will be no changes whatsoever. Victory in the election will in no way “untie Putin’s hands”, as some “experts” say. His hands have been untied for a long time and are in blood up to his shoulders… Therefore, let us analyze the events accompanying the election in the Russian Federation, which more than obviously characterize what is happening in Russia.

Actually, the current election in the Russian Federation was no different from all previous ones in its history, except for the war-related features of the current situation. In particular, what is happening on the lands of Ukraine captured by Moscow and in Russia itself. It is to them that special attention should be paid and appropriate conclusions drawn. Thus, the majority of residents of the occupied territories of Ukraine (at least in Mariupol, Berdiansk and Melitopol) do not perceive Russia with its “Russian world”. As early as in 2022, most of the local population left the region. Of those who remained, only 30 % went to vote, and only under forceful pressure from Russia. The rest refused to do it. But the turnout in the election in the occupied territories was “drawn” at the level of more than 80 percent. And more than 90 % of the local population allegedly voted for Vladimir Putin.

The election in the Russian Federation became a catalyst for the armed insurrections of the anti-Putin opposition from the “Russian Volunteer Corps”, “Freedom of Russia Legion” and “Siberian Battalion”. Their fighters, citizens of the Russian Federation, also decided to participate in the election, but so that the latter would be fair, that is, as they should be. The insurgents, supported by artillery and armored vehicles, entered the Graivoron district of Belgorod region and Glushkovo district of Kursk region.

In terms of scale, this year’s invasion surpassed the last year’s. At that time, the rebels occupied only part of Shebekino district of Belgorod region, from where two-thirds of the population were evacuated. The refugees are still surviving as best they can, because almost no one helps them. Currently, local residents are already leaving the above-mentioned areas, where the armed formations of the Russian opposition advanced. And this is a smart choice, because Moscow’s methods remain unchanged. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have never stopped and do not stop before the killing of the local population during hostilities. Last year, the settlements liberated by the rebels were destroyed by the artillery fire of the Russian troops, in particular, by multiple rocket launchers. The same is observed now. Yet the insurgents are advancing and hostilities are already taking place even in the suburbs of Belgorod.

The election in Russia was marked by the beginning of massive Ukrainian strikes with the aim of destroying the Russian oil refining industry. Ukrainian UAVs consistently and persistently attack them in the whole western part of the Russian Federation — from Rostov region and the Krasnodar Territory to the Volga region, Moscow region, and Leningrad region. Within a few days, Ukraine damaged about 15 % of Russian diesel and petrol production capacity.

The situation with diesel fuel in Russia is more or less resolved, because it is produced twice as much as consumed. Although, as a result of the war, this may no longer be the case. After all, one battle tank consumes ten times more diesel fuel than a heavy tractor or a long truck. The situation with petrol is somewhat worse, because its production in Russia roughly equals its consumption. With the beginning of the sowing campaign and the period of summer holidays, the need for this fuel will increase sharply. Therefore, the Russian government has already introduced restrictions on the export of petroleum products. Since the beginning of 2024, such exports have fallen by more than 30 percent. At the same time, the incomes of those Russian oligarchs, who are the main support of the Putin regime and the main source of its financing, also decreased. A few more attacks on Russian refineries — and there will be no more such income. So, those who really rule Russia will think: do they need the regime, which previously guaranteed their security, but now has become a threat? And thus, the prerequisites for the overthrow of the Russian leadership will arise.

By the way, no one cares about the air defense of Russian refineries. Their owners are forced to buy air-defense equipment themselves and equip their guards with it. On the agenda is a proposal to place Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft systems around oil refineries. But where to get them, given the state of the Russian defense industry? Besides, the experience of successful attacks by Ukrainian troops on Russian military facilities in the occupied Crimea has proved the rather low effectiveness of those systems.

As expected, the presidential election in Russia was accompanied by a new outbreak of neo-imperialism, chauvinism, Nazism and racism, which can be described in one word — Ruscism. Vladimir Putin tried to hide this by repeating the previous demands regarding the “demilitarization” of Ukraine, its refusal to join NATO, recognition of the occupied territories as part of the Russian Federation, etc. The Deputy Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation (former Russian President and Prime Minister) Dmitry Medvedev spoke more frankly, calling on Ukraine to renounce its statehood and recognize its territory as a constituent part of the Russian Federation. Of course, such demands of Medvedev can be attributed to mental disorders due to chronic alcoholism. But, nevertheless, he consciously or subconsciously made public Moscow’s true intentions.

As mentioned above, Russia loudly claims that Vladimir Putin won almost 90 percent of the vote in the election, including in the occupied territories of Ukraine. Who would expect anything else from Moscow’s propaganda! In fact, even in the Russian Federation itself, no more than 60 % of citizens came to vote. This data is provided by Russian regional media, which still retain relative independence from the federal center. And in Lithuania’s capital — Vilnius, only 3 % of the local Russians who came to the Russian Embassy voted for Putin.

Few people can recall the protests in Russia. But there were protests there, and quite large-scaled. The protests were held under the general slogan “Noon Against Putin”. People came to polling stations at 12:00 to show their attitude to Putin’s government and to unite in opposition to the criminal regime, which can now also be called self-proclaimed. Residents of eastern regions of the Russian Federation in the cities of Omsk, Tomsk, Chelyabinsk, Perm, Yekaterinburg and Novosibirsk were the first to take part in the action. Then it spread to western Russia.

Let’s hope that the international community will hear Ukraine’s calls for non-recognition of the legitimacy of the presidential election in Russia.

Of course, Moscow will try to use the falsified results of the presidential election for its military and political purposes. Firstly, to justify and continue the war against Ukraine, which is allegedly supported by the majority of Russians. Secondly, to justify the possibility of declaring general mobilization in Russia. Or at least the second stage of partial mobilization, which has been going on since the autumn of 2022.

Moscow’s existing forces are no longer enough for a war against Ukraine. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation still retain the initiative on the front line. Including due to miscalculations of the military leadership of Ukraine, which for some reason did not make decisions regarding the construction of defense fortifications when it was possible and necessary to do so. Now they are finally being constructed, but already under the enemy’s fire…

We also know how to learn from our mistakes. The Russian invaders can still achieve some tactical successes on the front line. But there are no reserves to break through the front and conduct an operational-strategic operation. That is why the Kremlin regime needs a general mobilization to litter our positions with the corpses of its soldiers.

However, even if the election in the Russian Federation had not been falsified, it once again confirmed the fact of deep illness and degradation of Russian society. Putin’s regime and its propaganda have made this society worse than the societies of Stalin’s USSR or Hitler’s Germany in the 1930s and 1940s. In the Soviet Union, as in Hitler’s Germany, no one paid any importance to the lives of citizens, let alone to their rights. But at least it was hidden, with the exception of Hitler’s anti-Semitic policy… Putin surpassed him. The Russian mass media openly call for killing Ukrainian children and creation of concentration camps for teachers. Russians, “zombified” by state propaganda, support this, and scumbags from the Russian army put it into practice. Such an army will not be able to win, just as such a sick country will not be able to survive. No matter how totalitarian Putin’s regime is, it will not save the Russian Federation from disintegration, as happened with the USSR with the same authoritarian power.

We remember that even worse happened to Hitler’s Germany. It was completely destroyed and split in half. At this, contrary to Russian historical falsifications, the military industry and military potential of Germany was then destroyed primarily by American and British aviation… And Ukrainian UAVs are already reaching the Volga region, Moscow and St. Petersburg.