China’s “Peace Plan”

Goals and Prospects for Implementation

 

Ivan Sichen

For Ukraine, very important is the position of the People’s Republic of China, which, in fact, is the only country that is able to really influence the policy of the Russian Federation, including concerning Ukraine. Until recently, China, in its usual manner, avoided to interfere in the Russian-Ukrainian war, limiting itself only to standard calls for “reconciliation”. At the same time, in February 2023, the PRC suddenly changes its position, at least at the political level, putting forward a number of initiatives to end the war and peacefully resolve the situation. Such a step by China is fundamental in nature. Therefore, we will analyze the Chinese proposals in more detail, taking into account reasons for them and their possible consequences.

 

…China, in fact, is the only country that is able to really influence the policy of the Russian Federation, including concerning Ukraine…

As you know, on February 24, 2023, on the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China published the so-called Peace Plan with its vision of ways to end the war and ensure peace and stability in Europe and the world. The provisions of the plan were actively analyzed in the media. They include 12 points, such as:

  • Respecting the sovereignty of all countries;
  • Abandoning the Cold War mentality;
  • Ceasing hostilities;
  • Resuming peace talks;
  • Resolving the humanitarian crisis;
  • Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs);
  • Keeping nuclear power plants safe;
  • Reducing strategic risks;
  • Facilitating grain exports;
  • Stopping unilateral sanctions;
  • Keeping industrial and supply chains stable;
  • Promoting post-conflict reconstruction.

At first glance, the “Peace Plan” of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China is quite adequate and positive in nature. Especially as it largely coincides with the provisions of UN General Assembly resolutions and looks more constructive than the crazy, completely pro-Russian ideas of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and other similar politicians.

…Beijing promote exclusively its own interests, even when they sometimes contradict the interests of other countries…

However, as we have already written in previous articles, there is no altruism in international politics and relations. Especially on the part of such pragmatic countries as the PRC. As in all other cases, Beijing promote exclusively its own interests, even when they sometimes contradict the interests of other countries. At this, until recently, China had traditionally tried not to be involved with problems such as Russia’s war against Ukraine, which, in its essence, is a manifestation of the confrontation between Moscow and the West.

However, today such a policy of China is beginning to create for it a number of challenges and threats in the political, economic, security and humanitarian spheres. To some extent, they have already been mentioned in the media, but only in general. Therefore, it is appropriate to consider them in more detail, which will provide an opportunity to find out China’s intentions and the likely directions of its actions to implement them.

So, what can be said about the above-mentioned topic and what conclusions can we draw based on the trends and events that are taking place around Russia’s war against Ukraine in the context of the most important aspects regarding the PRC.

…China, with its policy of non-interference in Russia’s war against Ukraine, in fact, found itself on the “sidelines” of the main world process…

Firstly, Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine became one of the key events of the 21st century, which is in the center of attention of the world community and showed the role, place and importance of each of the leading states in the modern system of international relations.

In this regard, the activities of Western countries and international organizations to end the war on the basis of international law has significantly strengthened their position in the world, as well as contributed to further strengthening of the unity and power of NATO and the EU. Thus, the West has demonstrated its importance as a global power capable of deterring Russia. In turn, Russia, as it turned out, is not able to confront the United States, Europe and Ukraine, which finally deprived it of hopes for a possible achievement of the status of a “great world power”. In addition to the West, the rest of the civilized world sided with Ukraine, which demonstrates the real balance of power in the international arena. In particular, this is evidenced by the UN General Assembly’s resolution of February 23, 2023, which by a majority of votes supports Ukraine and condemns Russia.

In this case, China, with its policy of non-interference in Russia’s war against Ukraine, in fact, found itself on the “sidelines” of the main world process, losing to the West by its international influence. As a result, China’s role and importance is changing from a global power equivalent to the USA and the EU — to an important partner for them, but without the obligatory need to take into account its interests. Even with the opportunity to impose their will on China. How else can one regard Washington’s categorical demands for Beijing not to transfer weapons to Russia, when the United States, NATO and EU member states, as well as other countries, are increasing the amount of military assistance to Ukraine.

…Russia’s war against Ukraine has completely undermined the possibility of implementing China’s strategic concept to build a “just and fair world”…

Secondly, Russia’s war against Ukraine has completely undermined the possibility of implementing China’s strategic concept to build a “just and fair world”. It was this idea that formed the basis of Beijing’s geopolitical initiative “The Belt and Road”, which provides for the creation of a single trade, economic and transport space from the Asia-Pacific to Europe. The PRC considers the implementation of such plans as one of the main tools for achieving its economic and political goals: expanding markets for Chinese goods and access to resources, as well as creating its own sphere of influence in the world as opposed to the United States.

The central role in the implementation of such China’s plans was given to Russia. It was on its territory that modern high-speed transport communications from the Asia-Pacific to Europe were supposed to be created. So far, all these plans have come to naught. None of the European countries will cooperate with Russia. Including in the issue of creating new transport corridors with the participation of the Russian Federation. All this will greatly complicate or even make it impossible to implement China’s geopolitical projects.

…Bilateral trade between Russia and China for most groups of goods fell by 30–40 %…

Thirdly, Russia is a rather significant trade and economic partner of China. According to different estimates, it is in 9–11 places among China’s trading partners. Of course, these are not the first places, but in 2022 the volume of mutual trade between the two countries reached about $190 billion. According to Moscow, over the past year, the increase in Russian-Chinese trade amounted to more than 30 %, which was the consequence of Russia’s reorientation to China as a result of Western sanctions.

However, some experts have fundamentally different data, namely — they claim that bilateral trade between Russia and China for most groups of goods (including the supply of Russian oil) fell by the same 30–40 %. The reason for this trend is determined by China’s attempts to avoid secondary sanctions from the United States and the EU, which are its main trading partners.

One way or another, but before the war, Russia and China planned to increase the volume of mutual trade in 2022 to $250–260 billion. That is, the amount of lost profits amounted to at least $60–70 billion.

…Social explosion in Russia can destroy the entire socio-economic system built by China in Siberia and the Far East of the RFя…

Fourthly, today the total volume of China’s investments in the Russian economy is about $10 billion. With these investments, several thousand joint projects of different levels are being implemented — from the construction and commissioning of high-tech enterprises to the development of Russian natural resources. Currently, Western sanctions against Russian oligarchs and leading companies, as well as the “freezing” of Russia’s financial assets in foreign banks, have largely deprived it of the possibility of using Chinese investments for its intended purpose and, accordingly, paying dividends. As a result, public and private structures of the PRC lose quite large funds and opportunities to implement important projects for them, integrated into the geopolitical initiative “The Belt and Road”. With this in mind, since last summer, China has actually stopped investing in the Russian economy, as well as providing loans to Russian businesses.

Besides, back in the mid-2010s, under a number of targeted programs of the Russian government, broad opportunities were actually opened for the resettlement of Chinese citizens to the territory of Siberia and the Far East of Russia for their economic development. The consequence of this was the superiority of the number of Chinese immigrants over the number of the local population, which led to the emergence of interethnic conflicts. Along with this, attacks by local residents on Chinese enterprises (farms) intensified as a response to China’s dominance in the region.

Until recently, China has been restraining such trends by bribing local authorities and law enforcement agencies, which in fact allowed it to take control of eastern Russia. At the same time, Moscow’s failures in the war against Ukraine and the aggravation of the problems of the Russian economy open up real prospects for a social explosion in Russia. And this can destroy the entire socio-economic system built by China in Siberia and the Far East of the Russian Federation.

Such prospects are already openly recognized by V. Putin. As he said in an interview with the television channel “Russia 1” (published on February 26, 2023), “the goal of the West is the collapse and liquidation of Russia. If the West achieves this goal, the Russian people may not remain: there will be Muscovites, Urals and others”.

…The leadership of the PRC will never dare to risk its relations with the USA and the EU in favor of Russia…

Fifthly, China’s political support for the Putin regime’s policy, even without direct intervention in the war on the side of the Russian Federation, complicates relations between Beijing and the United States and the EU. I have already touched upon this issue, but let’s look at it more closely, taking into account political aspects. Thus, last year the trade turnover between China and the United States reached about $770 billion. Mutual trade between China and the European Union reaches the same figures (detailed information is hidden by all parties). This is more than by 8 times more than the volume of trade between the PRC and Russia. Moreover, unlike Russia, the United States and EU members are stable and highly developed countries, which are much more valuable for China than Russia — its raw material appendage and market for low-quality goods.

Therefore, the leadership of the PRC will never dare to risk its relations with the USA and the EU in favor of the Russian Federation. This is evidenced by Beijing’s desperate attempts to prove the “non-existence of plans to supply weapons to Russia”. The official statement on this matter was made by the Chinese authorities on February 25, 2023 after the United States promised to impose tough sanctions against China in case of its transfer of weapons for the needs of the RF Armed Forces. On the one hand, this position of Beijing allows it to maintain relatively normal relations with the USA and the EU, but on the other hand, undermines its authority as a country that cannot provide real assistance to its allies and partners.

…China is concerned about the possibility of the collapse of the Russian Federation not only from an economic, but also from a military and humanitarian point of view…

Sixthly, like many other countries, the PRC is concerned about the possibility of the collapse of the Russian Federation not only from an economic, but also from a military and humanitarian point of view. Such consequences can be much more dangerous than purely economic factors.

First of all, it concerns the possibility of disintegration of the RF Armed Forces and their loss of control over arms, including tactical and strategic nuclear weapons. Moreover, all these weapons or most of them may end up in the hands of illegal armed groups or terrorist organizations.

This will create conditions for turning of contradictions between different groups of the population of the east of the Russian Federation on interethnic and interreligious grounds, and as a result of the struggle for control over resources and territories, into armed conflicts of varying intensity, as was observed after the collapse of the USSR.

At this, such conflicts can be much larger than those that took place in the early 1990s in Transdniestria and the Caucasus, and even more powerful than Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. They are highly likely to be accompanied by mass civilian casualties, destruction of infrastructure, man-made disasters and massive flows of refugees.

The use of weapons of mass destruction by participants in conflicts is also not excluded, and this may have catastrophic consequences not only for those quasi-state formations that will appear on the site of the Russian Federation, but also for neighboring countries and the whole world. Given such threats, China retains one of the most powerful groups of its troops on the Russian direction. However, its use to stabilize the situation in the East of the Russian Federation can only involve the PRC in an armed confrontation in the region.

 

It was these circumstances that led to the decision of the leadership of the PRC to intensify its participation in putting an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine. But again, as noted above, solely on the basis of China’s own interests, including:

  • strengthening China’s geopolitical position as an “influential peacekeeping country capable of playing a decisive role in ensuring peace and stability in Europe”;
  • interception of the initiative from the United States and the European Union in resolving this issue and returning the importance of China as “equivalent to them global power”;
  • restoration of opportunities for full-fledged trade and economic cooperation with Russia as one of the main conditions for the successful implementation of the Chinese initiative “The Belt and Road”;
  • increasing China’s international credibility as a “reliable pillar” for its allies and partners;
  • preventing the possibility of the collapse of the Russian Federation with all the negative consequences for the People’s Republic of China.

 

…Ukraine and the West criticize China’s “Peace Plan” because of a number of important aspects…

The world’s reaction to China’s “Peace Plan” was rather ambiguous. For example, it is fully approved by Moscow, which sees Chinese proposals as a support to the RF’s attempts to impose negotiations on the West and Ukraine to end the war on Russian terms and to achieve lifting of sanctions against Russia. As you would expect, Viktor Orbán, Putin’s main apologist in Europe, also spoke in favor of the Chinese plan.

Ukraine and leading Western countries also demonstrate a positive attitude to China’s intentions to intensify its participation in the restoration of peace in Europe. In particular, this step of the PRC is perceived as a possible channel to promote the process of resolving the war in Ukraine. A similar opinion was expressed by President of Ukraine V. Zelenskyi. At this, he said that he could meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping to discuss the issue.

At the same time, Ukraine and the West criticize China’s “Peace Plan” because of a number of important aspects: Beijing’s refusal to condemn Russia’s actions against Ukraine and, in general, to recognize them as a war; lack of demands for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory; China’s proposals to lift Russian sanctions without any obligations on Russia’s part.

This fundamentally contradicts the interests of Ukraine and its Western partners, and therefore China’s “Peace Plan” will never be adopted in its current form. Moreover, it is actually not a plan in the full sense of the word, but a set of slogans beneficial to China.

Of course, Beijing understands such prospects, and therefore it can begin the process of “raising the stakes” by further rapprochement with Russia, including by demonstrating its readiness to provide it with weapons.

Although Beijing’s real steps will depend on the development of the situation in Russia, which is currently the main factor influencing China’s interests and security. Thus, in the event of a real threat of a civil conflict in the Russian Federation, the leadership of the PRC can really transfer weapons for the needs of the RF Armed Forces and its other security forces, and in extreme cases — to occupy its eastern regions.

As experts correctly explain, “we judge China by its actions, not by its statements”. In order to ensure that such actions do not cross critical “red lines” for the West and Ukraine, a number of European leaders are scheduled to visit China in 2023, as well as to continue US-China negotiations at the highest level. In contrast, in order to lobby Russian and own interests, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus A. Lukashenko has already visited the PRC.

 

Схожі публікації