Peace for Ukraine: Conclusions from International Events

Against Every Force There Is Always Another Force

Ivan Sichen

The Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, which has been going on for more than two years, is one of the biggest international crises since World War II, threatening global security. Moreover, the current crisis has once again divided the world into two antagonistic camps — of the democratic and totalitarian countries. The contradictions between them are becoming critical, with a tendency to move from the political and economic to the military sphere.

Today, such prospects are obvious in nature, and their negative consequences are clear to everyone. That is why both democratic and totalitarian countries recognize the need to peacefully resolve Russian-Ukrainian relations, while keeping in mind their own interests. In order to promote their own interests, they do not stop at measures of mutual pressure and influence on each other over the Ukrainian issue. This is evidenced by a number of political events over the past month surrounding the Russian-Ukrainian war, as well as the peculiarities of the situation at the front in Ukraine. All of this directly affects Ukraine’s interests, and therefore deserves a more detailed analysis.

We recently assessed the situation on the front line as of mid-June 2024. According to the conclusion, the war has actually become a positional one, with relatively minor advances of Russian and Ukrainian troops. The enemy is still advancing in some areas, but the pace of its offensive has slowed down significantly. And in some areas, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are pushing the enemy back. At this, both Russia and Ukraine are suffering significant military losses and economic damage. The United States and the EU are also facing certain political and financial problems, as they are helping Ukraine by spending their own significant resources. At present, the Russian-Ukrainian war is also beginning to affect the position of China, which was the only country that benefited from it. On the one hand, China is strengthening its influence on Russia and increasing its access to its markets and natural resources, but on the other hand, it is facing a threat of Western sanctions.

Even more negative consequences arise from the escalation of the confrontation over the Ukrainian issue between Russia and the United States/NATO in the military sphere, which goes beyond the European theater and concerns nuclear threats. According to Putin’s statement in early June 2024, the actions of the United States/NATO increase threats to Russia’s security, forcing it to change its own nuclear doctrine. At the same time, demonstrative exercises of the tactical component of Russia’s nuclear forces began, including in Belarus.

In response, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced the Alliance’s plans to take nuclear missiles out of storage and put them on standby, as well as to modernize them. At this, in addition to Russia, China was called as one of NATO’s adversaries. This brings the confrontation between the parties to a qualitatively new level, threatening with the real possibility of a nuclear war.

The danger of such a development is quite obvious, and the world is increasingly aware of the need to put an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war. That is why the number of international events and initiatives conducted or put forward by Ukraine’s partners and opponents to find ways to resolve this issue is increasing.

However, as we have just mentioned, the countries of the democratic and totalitarian worlds have diametrically opposite goals and interests. For the democratic world, this means building a fair system of international relations based on universal values and norms enshrined in the UN Charter, as well as avoiding the threat of the Russian-Ukrainian war escalating into a larger military confrontation involving other countries.

For the totalitarian world, it is to restore the spheres of geopolitical influence, as well as to consolidate the superiority of the “right of force” over the “rule of law”. Russia’s separate goal is to achieve full control over Ukraine as a basis for rebuilding of “Greater Russia”.

The situation in Ukraine also attracts the attention of the Third World, or the so-called Global South. The Russian-Ukrainian war directly affects their food security as a result of Russia’s obstruction of Ukrainian food exports. These countries are also trying to use the topic of the Russian-Ukrainian war to increase their weight in international relations by launching various peace initiatives.

These trends were reflected during the G7 Summit, the Summit on Peace in Ukraine (Global Peace Summit), the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC2024), and the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, as well as in statements made by leaders of various countries and international organizations in June 2024.

In general, the conclusions relevant to Ukraine are in line with the processes taking place around Russia’s war against Ukraine, although they include some new aspects.

For example, Western countries and international organizations, as well as their allies and partners, have finally chosen firm and unwavering positions in support of Ukraine. Unlike the hesitations that took place at the beginning of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, Western partners do not deny that the war should end in a just and lasting peace, not “peace at any cost”. The collective West is in favor of peace, but not as a result of capitulation to Russia and, in general, totalitarianism. Therefore, it will not negotiate with Moscow behind Ukraine’s back and will not force our country to make concessions to Moscow.

The Group of Seven countries have chosen the most stable and consistent course to help strengthen Ukraine and deter Russia. They are the main suppliers of arms to Ukraine, its financial sponsors, and initiators of consistent pressure on Russia and other totalitarian countries, including China. Today, China is beginning to be seen not only as the West’s main competitor, but also as one of the main sources of threats to its security, along with the Russian Federation.

Friendly countries and international organizations’ support to Ukraine is long-term in nature. They intend not only to assist Ukraine in repulsing Russian aggression, but also in its post-war recovery and reforms. This lays the groundwork for deepening economic cooperation between them and Ukraine, including within the European Union.

Russia’s attack on Ukraine has become an event of global significance and to some extent affects the interests and security of most countries. This is why the international community is paying increased attention to Ukraine. This is evidenced by the diversity of participants of the Summit on Peace in Ukraine and the level of their representation, which included leaders or high-ranking officials from the world’s leading countries and countries of the European and other regions, including the Global South. Moreover, the conference was even attended by representatives of some countries that are considered to be supporters of Russia.

The last two years have proven that the collective West has given up cooperation with Russia to resolve key international problems due to the lack of constructive dialogue and the inability to reach any positive compromises with it. However, some European countries still hope for a change in Moscow’s position, and therefore propose to involve it in the implementation of elements of Ukrainian and Western approaches to ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, such hopes are unpromising.

The dangerous thing is that despite its de facto isolation from the West, Russia still retains some influence in the world and has the support of so-called partners from totalitarian and other countries that are interested in maintaining ties and developing cooperation with it. The skillful use of the interests of those countries allows Russia to unite them around itself on an anti-Western and anti-Ukrainian basis, including to promote its own plan to end the war with Ukraine.

These Russian efforts reduce the effectiveness of the efforts of Ukraine and friendly countries to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. For example, Moscow managed to convince a number of countries to refuse to participate in the Summit on Peace in Ukraine. And the Joint Communiqué of the Summit included only general provisions of Ukraine’s peace plan, such as nuclear and food security, prisoners of war exchange, and the return of deported children.

Relying on the successes achieved on the international “front” and its military potential, Moscow is putting forward ultimatums to Ukraine and the West on the conditions for ending the war, which are followed by the intensification of Russia’s offensives at the front and terrorist attacks on Ukrainian territory. However, Western countries have long ignored Russia’s threats, and Russia itself is not perceived as a world power even by its supporters. This also applies to China, which is supposedly a strategic ally of Moscow, but in fact pursues exclusively its own interests in relation to Russia.

The above-mentioned processes allow us to draw a generalized conclusion about the prospects for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, restoring peace, and ensuring Ukraine’s long-term security through its European and Euro-Atlantic integration.

True, no political efforts by Ukraine and its partners alone can guarantee a stop to Russian aggression. However, such efforts cannot be considered as vain ones. They are important from the point of view of uniting democratic countries around the issue of providing assistance to Ukraine. Supplying Ukraine with the necessary weapons and ammunition remains the main condition for the success of our country’s troops and their ability to stop the enemy and seize the initiative at the front.

That is why international support for Ukraine helps to strengthen our country’s defense capabilities, reduces Russia’s ability to continue its aggression, and facilitates the conclusion of new security agreements with our partners, the start of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU, and further rapprochement with NATO.

Of course, Russia is aware of these prospects and is trying to obstruct them. At this, Russia, as always, relies on military force. However, against every force, there is always another force.