Making a Decision You Accept Its Consequences

Ivan Sichen

In our previous article, “Anaconda Is Tightening Its Coils. How the United States Is Constricting Russia”, we assessed the negative consequences of Moscow’s policy for the Russian economy. However, the complicated economic situation in Russia is only the “top of the iceberg” of all the problems faced by the Putin regime. For example, they also include a number of political aspects that not only create additional obstacles for Moscow in implementing its geopolitical plans, but make it virtually impossible. However, most of what is bad for Russia tends to be positive for the entire civilized world. Some of these aspects have already been covered in the media and are well known. But, we would like to summarize them within a single system, which will give a clearer view of the overall picture.

According to many forecasts, in February 2022 Russia may move from threats and demonstrations of military force to direct new military invasion of Ukraine. It is unlikely to happen in reality, at least in the near future. To date, Moscow has not taken all necessary measures for this. However, we should not lull ourselves with hopes for the best, but should prepare for the worst. Especially since the situation around Ukraine remains extremely difficult. Moreover, in February 2022 it could reach a critical level of severity and escalate into Russia’s armed confrontation not only with Ukraine but with the United States and NATO as well.

For example, January 26, 2022 the United States gave Russia a written response to its ultimate demands for so-called “security guarantees”. The document is well-founded and well-considered and includes proposals to restore control over military activity in Europe, to mutually abandon the deployment of weapon systems at the European theatre and to reduce troops on a parity basis.

However, the United States confirmed the inadmissibility of concessions in favor of Moscow on matters of principle. As before, the possibility of the Kremlin’s influence on NATO’s activities and Moscow’s imposition of its will was categorically rejected. First of all, this concerns Russia’s demands for the Alliance’s refusal to accept new members (including those from the former Soviet Union), as well as the unilateral withdrawal of US/NATO troops from Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries.

This approach of the United States has paved the way for dialogue with Russia in the field of strategic security, at least in those spheres where they could reach mutual compromises. At this, right now the problems concerning the “red lines” of the parties’ interests could be taken out of the scope of their negotiations. This is a common diplomatic practice for all civilized countries.

But Putin’s imperial ambitions do not allow him to follow this path. Instead of restoring normal relations with the United States and Europe, he resorted to a confrontational scenario. The US response was publicly described by V. Putin as “ignoring Russia’s fundamental security concerns”. A similar statement was made by the RF Foreign Minister S. Lavrov. At that, he again made blatant threats against the United States and NATO.

Well, as the saying goes: “making a decision, you accept its consequences”. This fully applies to Russia’s maniacal desire to confront the whole normal world. We will talk in more detail about what Moscow’s policy has led to.

First, Moscow’s actions highlighted the problem of Russian aggression against Ukraine, which began to recede into the background of international attention. Since last spring, the topic of the possibility of a new Russian attack on Ukraine again ranks first in the political and information spheres of the world. At this, Russia’s ruling elite has finally lost the opportunity to improve its reputation and has established itself among international outcasts such as the leaders of North Korea, Syria, Iran, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Belarus. By the way, they remain Russia’s only allies.

Second, the Kremlin has created even more serious problems for the Russian economy. As we wrote earlier, even without the West’s imposing new sanctions against Russia, the very statements of the US and EU leaderships about such a possibility collapsed the Russian stock market and caused damage of 30 billion US dollars to Russian oligarchs. And this is not to mention a new wave of outflow of foreign investments from Russia.

Third, Moscow has given the United States the opportunity to regain its international prestige, which suffered from the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. Washington’s decision was perceived in the world as a weakness and unreliability of the United States, which can leave its allies and partners to chance. And now, thanks to Russia, the United States has rectified this situation and reaffirmed its role as a leading center of power — the leader of the efforts of Western countries and international organizations to deter Russian aggression.

Fourth, the actions of the Russian Federation allowed US President J. Biden to strengthen his power and stabilize the political situation in the country by consolidating the Democratic and Republican parties and American society in the face of threats from the Russian Federation. This offset the negative consequences of the policy of former US President D. Trump, who actually brought the situation in the country to the brink of civil conflict.

Fifth, Moscow’s military demonstrations have been a powerful factor in strengthening transatlantic unity and uniting European nations in the face of growing threats from Russia. This was especially important in the context of anti-American and Eurosceptic sentiments in individual NATO and EU countries. At this, NATO has once again become a major tool for the United States in pursuing American interests in the world.

Sixth, the United States has been given much greater opportunities to strengthen its position in Europe under the pretext of protecting it from Russia. In particular, in January 2022, the United States began a new phase of deploying its troops to Europe. In early February 2022, 2,000 American soldiers from the US 82^nd Airborne Division of the XVIII Airborne Corps were sent to Poland and Germany.

And most importantly, the threat of a new Russian attack on Ukraine has resumed the consolidation of the Ukrainian population on the basis of the idea of defending their country from the military invasion of the aggressor. Evidence of this was the mass entry of Ukrainian citizens into the territorial defense forces, which will not only become the second echelon of regular Armed Forces of Ukraine, but will also be able to light a fire under the feet of the occupiers.

Especially since we have historical and modern experience. Beginning with the wars of the Ukrainian Cossack state with Muscovy in the 17^th century, through the actions of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army against German and Soviet troops during and after World War II (until the early 1960s), and to the fierce resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Russia in 2014–2015.

Ukraine is ready for an even tougher resistance to a new Russian attack. Our Western allies and partners have already provided us with so many anti-tank and anti-aircraft portable missile systems (ATGMs and MANPADS) that it allows us to destroy all enemy armored vehicles  and aircrafts deployed in the Ukrainian direction.

As the experience of all armed conflicts after the Second World War has shown, such weapons are the key to victory. In particular, during the Arab-Israeli wars, about 90 % of the tanks and aircrafts of the anti-Israel coalition were destroyed by ATGMs and MANPADS.

The same weapons in the hands of Afghan insurgents forced Soviet and then American troops to leave Afghanistan. Similarly, fighters of the Republic of Ichkeria (Chechnya) destroyed Russian tanks during the first and second Chechen wars in the mid-1990s and early 2000s.

And during Russia’s attack on Georgia in August 2008, Georgian troops destroyed almost an entire Russian air regiment with the same MANPADS within a few days. Unfortunately, not all Russian aircrafts were shot down. However, anti-aircraft missiles damaged them, as a result of which they could at best only reach their airfields. After that, Russian pilots en masse began to refuse further participation in hostilities.

Although, even without Western weapons we have something to respond to the enemy. We still have RPG-7 (hand-held anti-tank grenade launchers) and Strela MANPADS since Soviet times. And our defense enterprises can mass-produce them. As well as various high-precision weapons, including with laser guidance systems.

However, we have deviated from the main topic of our article. We would like to emphasize once again that Russia is driving itself into a “dead end” of problems that have no solution but a military one. However, we will still hope that this will not happen. Again, historical experience shows that Russia attacks only obviously weaker opponents. This tactic allowed Moscow to succeed in 2014, when it took advantage of Ukraine’s problems and captured Crimea and created an armed conflict in the Donbas. But then it broke its teeth. As shown by all further developments. And today Ukraine, together with its Western partners, is able to provide a worthy rebuff to Russia.

Putin may be a “genius tactician”, as reported in the Russian media. But he has never become a strategist.