The Next Issue of “BINTEL” Geopolitical Analytics Journal Has Been Published
The next, third, this year’s issue of “BINTEL. Geopolitical Analytics Journal” offers its readers materials, the content of which is connected with current events in Ukraine.
This issue is opened with the member of our Editorial Council, Professor Myroslav Dnistryanskyi’s article “Characteristic Features and Contradictions of Global Postmodern Geopolitical Analysis”. The author makes a brief review of high-profile works of famous analysts F. Fukuyama, D. Moisi, R. Haass, whose conclusions, in his opinion, were made under the influence of changes that took place on the world map at the end of the 20th century. This period, which began and spread first of all in developed Western countries, and then covered Westernized ones, received the name “postmodern”.
Hence the author argues that “Postmodern philosophy is not conceptually coherent, it does not penetrate into the depths of all life and does not encompass the entire modern world, including very different approaches, which, however, are united by the desire to deny the value orientations of the industrial society, skepticism about the prospects of social progress and scientific knowledge in general, subjectivism, and even a certain cynicism in the moral and cultural sphere. Likewise, the geopolitical approaches of this period are not systematized or well-ordered in any way and are completely different from the previous ones, one can only ask questions about a certain influence of postmodern philosophy on geopolitical consciousness and geopolitical thinking in particular. These influences are visible first of all in practical geopolitics, manifesting themselves in the incitement of confrontation in international relations, eclecticism of political and geopolitical ideology, aspirations for the subjective solution of international problems bypassing international legal institutions, in the purposeful creation and destabilization of tense political situations, implementation of cyber- and hybrid wars”.
I think that this paragraph is enough to draw attention to the thoughts presented by M. Dnistryanskyi, especially since they can be confirmed by events seen through our windows… I can’t help quoting another paragraph of his article as confirmation: “The well-known American geostrategist R. Haass points out the wide variety of all kinds of geopolitical challenges at the beginning of the 21st century, which lead to a crisis in the system of international relations and the world geopolitical order. But in his vision of the prospects for the transformation of the system of international relations, there are plenty of emotional anxiety reactions, fears that the world may become completely “non-polar” and plunge into geopolitical chaos due to the crisis of international political institutions, incorrect political decisions at the level of great powers, terrorism, climate changes etc”.
In the section “International Politics”, we offer an article by our another active author, Ph.D. in Politics Kateryna Vakarchuk. She regularly posted on the website of “’Borysfen Intel” her works on the politics of the South American continent, and stressed its role on the world stage, forecasted the direction of development of the countries there, which are related to our state. If nothing else, our diaspora lives there, which does not break its ties with Ukraine, especially now, when the Russian-Ukrainian war is in full swing. And while the Russian diaspora there took over all the so-called relations tools that remained after the collapse of the USSR, our compatriots now have to establish such relations “from scratch” in order if not only to popularize our culture and history, then at least to explain to the local population the true reason for the war unleashed by Moscow against us. The author describes in detail how Ukrainians in South America do this, in her article “Russian-Ukrainian War As Perceived By Latin America”. It is enough just to mention the subheadings of the article to make the reader understand what exactly it is about. For example, “Latin American Countries That Supported Ukraine”, “Ignoring the Annexation of Crimea”, “Countries That Stick to Neutrality in Regard to Russia’s Aggression”, “Countries Supporting Russia”, “Ukraine’s Interaction with the Countries of Latin America”. And the article by K. Vakarchuk ends with a sentence outlining one of the urgent problems: “I would like to point out that Ukraine will have to make extraordinary efforts in the formation and achievement of its goal in the Latin American and the Caribbean region. This requires a clear and understandable policy that will take into account both the detection of information threats and ways to neutralize them. One of the effective tools is cooperation between information agencies of Ukraine and the Latin American and Caribbean states”.
In a similar style and on burning topics, we present in the journal an article by another our regular authors, Olha Rudyuk. This time, she raises the question that cannot but interest our general public, and the article already determines the direction of her research “A Battle Without Winners: the Chinese Factor in the Russian-Ukrainian War”. The author says that “According to the chosen wait-and-see strategy, the official Beijing will continue to demonstrate its “neutrality”. At this, it is closely monitoring the Ukrainian-Russian relations, studying them in depth, in particular in the context of resolving the Taiwan problem. The People’s Republic of China realizes that changes in the official status of the so-called LPR/DPR at the international level create new opportunities to raise the Taiwan issue. At the same time, it is necessary to understand the striking difference in the views of the Russian and Chinese geopolitical schools on ways to resolve conflicts. The latter, based on the postulates of Chinese philosophy, does not rely exclusively on brute physical strength: “the supreme art of war is not a hundred victorious battles, but to subdue the enemy without fighting”… Unlike China, Russia continues the historical policy of crude expansionism… When using armed intervention against their neighbors, Russians always explained their physical violence against another people as “liberating them” from… themselves. Another technique used by Russian military propaganda to justify attacks on neighboring states is to impose on the audience the thesis of an “involuntary preventive strike” by the eternally “peace-loving” Russia…” And then the author confirms this with accurate and indisputable facts, refers to relevant documents, addresses historical events, shares her impressions of how the Chinese media write about the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Another author with the same surname, Serhii Rudiuk, in the section “Geopolitics And National Security” offers an interesting article, the title of which is a quotation of the Ukrainian Hetman B. Khmelnytskyi “Two Walls Will Collide. One Will Fall — the Other Will Stand!” The author takes the propaganda of the Russians as the basis of his works, or rather, their special propaganda, which is now raging in the internal media, stubbornly moving to the external ones. In particular, his article deals with Russian myths about the Second World War, the Russian “ideology of Pobeda (Victory — Transl.)”, which has become the unofficial ideology of modern Russia. “If stripped of the special propaganda’s colored wrapper, the “candy” looks like this: “The Russian people defeated fascism. The Russian people freed Europe from fascism. The nations of Europe owe us forever. Therefore, all our whims and even violence must be tolerated!” The author is sure that Russia’s “monopolization” of the victory over fascism in the Second World War cannot withstand neither moral, nor scientific criticism, and he mentions the facts that confirm his approaches.
For example, in the Second World War, more than three million of our, Ukrainian, compatriots died in the ranks of the Soviet army alone. This is not a final figure, because the problem of finding out the losses of the people’s militia, partisans and underground resistance remains unresolved. “The military losses of Ukraine constitute almost half of the military losses of all Western countries of the Hitlerite alliance (Germany — 6,923,700 people, Hungary — 863,700, Italy — 93,900, Romania — 680,800, Finland — 86,400, Austrians, Sudeten Germans, natives of Alsace and Lorraine, Luxembourgers who fought as part of the Wehrmacht — 462,000 people) taken together”. Such a contribution of “blood” to the victory over fascism was made by the Ukrainian people, who were groundlessly declared by the current Kremlin leaders to be a fascist people to justify the genocide of Ukrainians carried out by the Russians”. Also, the author in his work cites on this occasion several theses concerning the “decisive contribution of the Russian people to the victory over fascism”. They are interesting not only for their primitiveness, but also for the fact that they still serve as models for the Kremlin’s propaganda to justify the military failures of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, in Ukraine included.
And further, to prevent a negative reaction so-called opponents, S. Rudiuk turns to the information of Russian historians, including the journal “Voennaya Mysl”, where in 1991 retired Colonel G. M. Ivanitsky in the article “On Germany’s Economic Preparation for an Attack on the USSR” reported important facts regarding the preparation of Germany and the USSR for war. This article also mentions a number of well-known politicians and the military, in particular Leonid Grigorievich Ivashov, retired Colonel General, President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, retired Colonel V. Kvachkov (who on May 19, 2022 replaced Leonid Ivashov as Chairman of the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly), as well as the emigrant, White Guard General B. Konovalov. In his article published in 1933 by the leading publication of the Main Headquarters of the Russian fascists, the newspaper “Fashist”, he wrote: “Finland, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Lithuania, Galicia and even Romania and Bulgaria in Europe, Persia, Afghanistan and Mongolia in Asia will join Russia. Due to its geographical position and the natural ability of its tribes to increase the population, Russia should become a dominant state in both Europe and Asia”.
Why be surprised, writes S. Rudiuk, when retired Captain 1st rank Konstantin Sivkov, first Vice-President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, a week after the start of the so-called “special operation” proudly declared that it “…will be the subject of study in many academies of the world, the entire planet. That is for sure!” And the Director of the Institute for the Study of National Crises, Nikolai Sorokin, was gloating: “The troops are expanding the bridgehead on the right bank of the Bug and continue to cut off the Odessa and Nikolaev agglomerations from the rest of the territory of the former Ukraine”.
On the “Discussion Panel” of the journal, the reader can find another article by our regular author, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Valerii Shvets. The article is entitled “The Whitest People of the White Race, or Entropy of Blood”. Its content is so unusual and original that it cannot be conveyed in one or two sentences. Unless we quote the last paragraph: “How could it happen that such different peoples — Ukrainians and Russians — existed within the same empire for three hundred years? The reason here lies not only in the unprecedented aggressiveness and treachery of the Russians, but also in our excessive credulity and submissiveness. Now there is a historic opportunity to turn this tragic page of Ukraine’s history. We have no right to lose this chance. Our national liberation war continues. We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and our victory over the historical enemy”.
We also offer another article from two well known to our readers authors — Doctor of Philosophy Volodymyr Shevchenko and a lawyer Andrii Savarets. The first is also known as the former aide to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, and his junior colleague today heads the Center for Digital Economy Development. They have already published an article on such a topic on “Borysfen Intel”’s website, but now its expanded version can be read not only by the domestic reader, but also by a foreign one, since, as you know, journal materials are also submitted in English. The title of the article has not changed — “The Mystery of Bloody MadneZZ”, and it is about the consequences of the Russian war on almost its two hundredth day. It is clear that the war continues, bringing more and more new victims, but no matter how much is known about what is happening in Ukraine, every day the world learns about our new losses and the cynicism of the Kremlin leadership, which “distorts its own military capabilities”. Thus, the authors analyze such components of the so-called special military operation as military, military-economic, economic, cultural, science, foreign policy and international law.
After analyzing the events in Ukraine, Russia and the world related to the war, the authors draw a conclusion that there are at least three versions, which at least somehow can explain the above more or less logically. They are the sudden collective madness of the top military-political leadership of the Russian Federation; the completely “rotten away” governance structure of the Russian Federation, which does not withstand the stress test; and the conspiracy theory, which looks absolutely incredible, but only at first glance. The authors believe that there is a number of important facts that are not explained either by the first or the second version, but only by the third.
As for such facts, there are also several of them, including such as determination of managerial will to defeat, conscious marginalization of foreign policy, “self-sanctions” and the loss of a reliable trading partner status, the “national question” as a mine under the Russian Federation, chaos among the leadership of the armed forces and in the defense industry, the collapse of the “external circuit” of the empire, Putin’s irrationality. Each of these facts is analyzed by the authors separately, with examples confirming the stated opinions.
The second and third parts of the article deal with the third version which proceeds from the assumption that the war in Ukraine is a set of criminal ways, methods and procedures for influencing the masses of people in the Russian Federation in order to give their political behavior a character favorable for the achieving certain political or managerial goals by a specific group of people within the Russian Federation. In this case, we are dealing not just with moral freaks and degenerates, but with a thoughtful strategic project hiding behind supposedly absurd actions. In short, the article should be read by those of us who are trying to understand the logic of the actions of Russian leaders.
And finally, we present the article by Doctor of Historical Sciences Ihor Datskiv in the section “History of Ukrainian Geopolitics”. This time the author offers the first part of the article entitled “Formation of Ukrainian-Turkish Bilateral Relations During the Ukrainian Revolution of 1917–1920”. Ukrainian-Turkish rapprochement in modern times began long before Ukraine restored its statehood at the beginning of the 20th century, but today one can make sure that all this does not happen spontaneously, and that coexistence with neighbors should be useful and mutually beneficial (if the neighbors are with common sense and responsible to the history of mankind).
“BINTEL” Journal № 3 – 2022