The New Issue of “BINTEL” Journal

The new issue of the “BINTEL” Geopolitical Analytics Journal opens with the article “Strategic Command and Post Exercise “West-2021” , prepared by military analyst Ivan Sichen.

Our regular readers know that the author always describes and analyzes such events with knowledge, paying attention to their true reasons, which in the end are markedly different from those officially announced by their initiators or participants. In the first lines of the article, he points out: “According to official reports by the Russian leadership, exercises such as the “West” are not directed against any country and are anti-terrorist in nature. At the same time, in fact, the SCPE rehearse various variants of the armed conflict (war) between Russia and the United States/NATO, including conducting a strategic offensive in the North-Western and a defense operation in the South-Western directions. Given the analysis of the practical actions of the participants of the SCPE, the strategic offensive operation includes a breakthrough of Russian troops in the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation with further occupation of the Baltic states and part of Poland. According to the exercise scenario, the offensive begins in the forward area in Grodno region of Belarus through the so-called Suwałki Corridor, which runs along the border between Poland and Lithuania”.

And goes on describing in detail the preparation of units and forces to perform these tasks, the number of the military equipment and weapons, possible options for combining them under united command (apart from Russian and Belarusian, representatives of other countries took part in the exercises), and draws readers’ attention to the main legal grounds for deploying Russian troops in Belarus.

Note that the exercise is also conducted simultaneously in the “deeper” Russian territory, where before the collapse of the Soviet Union there were no large military formations, but today there are large training grounds, military districts with military units, armaments and equipment depots.

Having presented information on the stages of preparation and conduct of the exercise, I. Sichen says that the main element of the strategic defense operation in the South-Western direction is “repulsing Ukraine’s efforts, with US/NATO support, to regain control of Crimea… Training and combat activities on this theme take place, as a rule, at training grounds in Crimea and in Rostov region, and partially — in Stavropol and Krasnodar Territories of the Russian Federation”. In fact, the author of the article concludes that the implementation of the main elements of the SCPE with a real demonstration of military force to the United States/NATO and Ukraine is the main goal of such exercises as the “West”. He reminds that other trainings of the Russian Armed Forces also take place against the single operational background of the “West” type exercises. The main ones are the trainings of Russian Navy such as “Ocean” (“Okean”) and Strategic Missile Forces “Thunder” (“Grom”; conducted since 2019). As a rule, land- and sea-based intercontinental ballistic missiles are actually launched during the exercises, mainly after the completion of the active phase of the SCPE in October–November each year. In this way, Russia demonstrates its readiness to use nuclear weapons against its adversaries. However, in the process of preparation of the “West-2021” SCPE, there were fundamental differences, which had not been seen before. Thus, while in the past the main troops of the Russian Armed Forces would be deployed in the Baltic direction, now they were concentrated on the border with Ukraine and in the Black Sea region.

Here are the titles of sections of this article: 1. General Characteristics of the “West” Type of Exercises; 2. Peculiarities of Preparation of the “West-2021” SCPE in the Spring of 2021; 3. The Final Stage of Preparations for the “West-2021” SCPE; 4. The Main Phase of the “West-2021” SCPE.

In each of the structured sections, the material is full with a meaningful list of military forces and means, conclusions and possible options for their possible use, including against Ukraine.

As always, interesting geopolitical information is presented by Professor Myroslav Dnistryanskyi in his next article “Contradictions in the Evolution of the French Geopolitical Thought in the Context of Interstate Relations” . Let us remind that in previous issues of the journal the author presented the history of geopolitics in other European countries, which in one way or another affected Ukraine. We see the importance of understanding the events — past and current — now, when Ukraine faces trials both, inside and outside its borders, when the subjective factor causes many difficult problems, to eliminate which will demand from the whole Ukrainian society a great effort.

Here are just a few lines from M. Dnistryanskyi’s article: “The French philosophical thought in early modern times drew attention to the dependence of various aspects of human life, including political, on geographical conditions and geographical location, and this marked the beginning of the formation of geopolitical thinking in that country. In this context, the emergence of ideas about shaping of various aspects of social development by the peculiarities of the natural environment, which some authors transformed into the idea of geographical conditions’ determining influence on various social structures and phenomena. Contradictory views were expressed on the role of relief, soil or climate in shaping the mentality and political will of peoples, which were marked by the absolutization of some factors and underestimation of others, which led to the spread of geographical determinism in understanding social and, in particular, political relations”.

Well and further the reader has an opportunity to get acquainted with interpretations and ideas of the French philosophers and statesmen who formed geopolitical thought and tried to explain creation of modern France. These include Jean Bodin, Charles-Louis de Montesquieu, Anne Robert Jacques Turgot, Paul Vidal de La Blache, Andre Cheradame, Jacques Ancel, etc. As well as French President Charles de Gaulle, who, intuitively seeking to retain France’s status as an independent geopolitical leader, often sought to distance himself from the United States and NATO.

We are sure that readers will be happy to read the materials headed “International Policy” — “Assessment of the Positions of Regional Players on the Development of the Situation in Afghanistan” , by Serhii Burdyliak and “Reset” in Moldova: What to Expect from the New Government?” by Artem Fylypenko. The author of the article on Afghanistan is the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the Islamic Republic of Iran who professionally analyzes the current state of affairs in Iran’s neighboring country, having the opportunity to directly observe what is called “developments in the Middle East”. The peculiarity of the article is that its author does not simply report on the change of power in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of American troops. He sets out in detail the position of each country, which in one way or another is relevant to what is happening and will happen there, determining the grounds for their policies and possible measures to counter their competitors in such a “multi-pronged geopolitical game”. These include China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, India, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and Qatar.

The author also draws attention to the CSTO and SCO summits in Dushanbe on September 16–17, 2021, where measures to counter potential threats from Afghanistan were discussed. After all, the Tajik and Russian military, preventing the infiltration of terrorists from Afghanistan, began to monitor the situation on the Tajik-Afghan border, in effort to detect and neutralize terrorist groups in the CSTO member states, and help counter the propaganda of extremism and terrorism. By the way, the author draws attention to the fact that “given that about 30 Turkic nationalities and ethnic groups live in Russia, Moscow was very concerned about Turkey’s idea to create a “Turan Army” consisting of Turkey, Azerbaijan, the Turkic countries of Central Asia and Mongolia. Moscow is also irritated by the fact that no Russian ally in the CSTO, including Belarus, has recognized the “independence” of the Transdniestria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the annexation of Crimea”.

Speaking about the article on Moldova’s current policy, by Artem Fylypenko, Head of the Research Sector of the Southern Region of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, it is enough to note that the author knows it well and always analyzes it unmistakably (as evidenced by previous materials published in the “BINTEL” journal). This time he writes about the winner of the early parliamentary elections in Moldova — the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) — and the conditions there, where this pro-European party independently forms the government and determines the country’s foreign policy to (be friends with everyone, not to irritate Russia). The author draws attention to the main directions of the new government’s foreign policy enshrined in its program “Moldova of Good Times”, analyzes the reasons for the first political steps of the state leadership and predicts their consequences. He also analyzes Moldova’s relations with Ukraine, as a neighbor with similar territorial problems. In particular, the author draws attention to the fact that “…the coming to power of PAS party opens new perspectives for the development of Ukrainian-Moldovan relations, which is confirmed by Moldova’s participation in the Association Trio and the Crimean Platform”.

This time, Doctor of Physics and Mathematics Valerii Shvets offers readers his view on the war, more precisely, how its waging may depend on the private interests and capital of individual actors. This is stated in his article — “On the Eve. An Alternative View of World War II” , which begins with a very specific sentence that allows us to understand the author’s position — “All great wars begin long before the first shot is fired”, and then presents facts, known and little known, which do not always coincide with the well-known or even until recently debatable ones. But what is their relevance, that is, what made the author return to what has long been approved at the scientific and historical level and did not cause much interest until recently? Having read the article, the reader will understand this and will decide whether to agree or disagree with the author.

And finally, to our popular column “Visiting BINTEL”, which publishes interviews of individuals who are actively involved in geopolitical issues and at their level make a significant contribution to the development of our state. Needless to say about the content of the interview, as we place it in a shortened version on our website. This time is answering our questions Ruslan Nechay, Arabist and orientalist, Counselor of the Embassy of Ukraine in the Arab Republic of Egypt. He has been working in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine since July 1996. He worked at the Embassy of Ukraine in Lebanon (1998–2002) and Egypt (2004–2008, 2012–2016, from 2019 to the present). “Our rather limited financial resources do not allow us to develop our activities in Africa as much as the world’s leading countries do. But that doesn’t mean we can’t set ambitious goals” — these are his words, which made the title of the material.