Global Transformation Manifesto

Volodymyr Shevchenko
Andrii Savarets

Exclusively by “Borysfen Intel”

“We know the Victory will change the world! And this will be a change that the world has long needed … It will be a victory over the very idea of the war”.
Volodymyr Zelenskyi, President of Ukraine

“It’s important that Ukraine win the war. This is paramount for the future of Ukraine, but also for the future and security in Europe and even in the world…. History is made in Ukraine today”.
Charles Michel, President of the European Council

“You cannot imagine the consequences of Ukraine’s victory! How much the world will change… Ukraine will speed up the approach of a new round of growth of Western civilization for at least 50 years”.
Boris Pincus, American politician and Republican District Leader of the New York’s 45^th State Assembly District, USA

 

The Russia-Ukraine War: The World’s Response to Aggression — Shock and Uncertainty

Russia’s criminal and extremely brutal aggression and Ukrainians’ heroic resistance caused a shock all over the world, literally in all spheres of human life, unprecedented since the Second World War.

In response to this upheaval, the military, political, economic and ideological structure of relations between states came into development. It is unlikely that there is a respected politician or expert in the world who believes that the world can return to the previous model in these spheres.

A fundamental problem is the fact that the changes that have already taken place so far are lagging far behind their comprehension. Not to mention the prospects for truly revolutionary changes in the near future.

The problem of a fundamental nature is the fact that the changes that have already occurred at the moment are far ahead of their comprehension. Not to mention the prospects for truly revolutionary changes in the near future.

Today, the global political space is actively forming a vision of our common future — the process of world transformation, so far without a coordinated and publicly voiced clear plan.

Politicians on all continents are literally moving “by touch”, guided by intuition, inner conviction, moral guidelines and situational analytics. Everyone understands that it will never be “as before”, but “how it will be” is hidden in the mist.

For such uncertainty, dozens of countries of the world are paying with political, economic and psychological instability, with the risk of negative consequences in the future caused by an incorrect assessment of global transformations, and the Ukrainian people — with the lives and health of tens of thousands of their military and the disasters of tens of millions of civilians.

Nevertheless, the contours of the future world, radically different from the old one, are already visible.

“…What is our general strategic concept that you and I need to adopt today? Nothing less than to ensure the security and well-being, freedom and prosperity of all men and all women in all homes and in all families throughout the Earth”.

These words from Winston Churchill’s famous Fulton speech at Westminster College in March 1946 generally reflect the current situation in the world and the directions in which it is necessary to create a “general strategic concept” of our future.

A Look at the War from Different Sides

From the Point of View of the Aggressor

According to the theses officially voiced by the leaders of Russia, Ukraine is an artificial entity created and existing solely thanks to the intrigues of the West, which for centuries has been striving to destroy and enslave Russia out of envying its greatness and resources.

Russia’s propaganda claims that Ukraine is inhabited by “inferior people” who may and should be massively killed, tortured and robbed, regardless of gender and age, expelled from their land, destroyed their homes, forcibly assimilated. Their territories of residence are allowed to be annexed for the purpose of exploiting resources and population.

The same “ideas” are contained in the recently presented official textbook on the history of Russia for the 11^th grade of Russian schools.

The leader of the regime, President of the Russian Federation V. Putin, is on the international wanted list under the warrant (so far one) of the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes related to the illegal mass deportation of Ukrainian children.

High-ranking representatives of the current government of the Russian Federation constantly and publicly call for unleashing a nuclear war against Ukraine and NATO member states, openly declare their territorial claims against neighboring states.

The Russian army, on the orders of its Supreme Commander-in-Chief President of the Russian Federation V. Putin:

• deliberately commits numerous crimes against the environment (ecocide): dams are destroyed, tens of thousands of tons of fuel are burnt, tens of thousands of tons of ammunition are exploded, millions of hectares of some of the most fertile lands in the world are mined;
• targets temples and cultural heritage sites (including those under the protection of UNESCO) with bombs and missiles;
• demonstratively destroys hundreds of thousands of tons of food in the ports of Ukraine, intended to prevent the starvation of tens of millions of people in developing countries.

In its domestic policy, the Russian Federation, literally “in turbo mode”, is moving from “sovereign democracy” [1] (the self-name of a rigid authoritarian regime in the Russian Federation) to an undisguised “sovereign dictatorship” — with the militarization of all aspects of public life and the special services’ total control over the behavior and even thoughts of the country’s population.

If the proclaimed goals of the aggressor are achieved, what we observe in the occupied territories will happen throughout Ukraine.

 From the Point of View of Ukraine

There is a nationwide heroic resistance to the aggressor, despite the destruction of hundreds of cities and villages, tens of thousands of human casualties and millions of refugees.

At this, Ukraine’s society, often even to the detriment of military effectiveness, remains committed to democracy and universal humanistic values.

There is a bloody uncompromising war with the aggressor for own survival and for the possibility of further development within the framework of the commonwealth of democratic countries (which is enshrined in the Ukrainian Constitution).

How the Democratic World Sees Russia in this War

First of all, the world sees a nuclear power’s aggression against a sovereign, nuclear-free European state — a member of the UN and one of its founders.

At this, the aggression is:

• large-scaled — second only to military operations during the Second World War;
• unjustified, conducted with illogical and constantly changing stated goals;
• is being carried out using all the means of warfare available to the aggressor.

Aggression is accompanied by:

• legally formalized illegal annexation of the occupied territories;
• daily and demonstrative violation of all norms of universal morality and international law;
• massive targeted and systemic actions that international law qualifies as mass war crimes, state terrorism and crimes against humanity.

The War from the Point of View of those “Observing the Process”

At present, 193 States are Members of the United Nations.

Russia is the aggressor. Four countries of the so-called axis of evil (Belarus, Iran, North Korea, Syria) are Russia’s outspoken allies.

In fact, five more dictatorial regimes of Central African countries, closely associated with the Putin regime, have joined this “axis”, on the basis of common “values”. They supported Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and also showed a joint aggressive reaction in support of the military junta that overthrew the legitimate President of Niger, who pursued a pro-Western policy.

The 54 countries united in the Ramstein Coalition are actively opposing aggression. The rest of the states are interested in watching how democracies are passing the test for their capacity in order to draw appropriate practical conclusions for themselves.

The Main Lessons of the Russian-Ukrainian War for Humanity

Lesson One — the understanding of world processes, based on the primacy of economics over conscious volitional management of the development of human communities, is rapidly becoming a thing of the past.

Spiritual values: democracy and natural human rights, harmony of individual freedom and collective good, freedom of creativity and self-expression are not derivatives of the economy, but fundamental system-forming factors of world transformation, the role of which is growing literally every day.

Especially as these values are not abstract concepts, not a rhetorical figure designed to cover up the implementation of any political, economic, military, criminal and other goals considered real, according to the realpolitik concept.

It is not for nothing that the concepts of “aggressor”, “unfriendly states”, “totalitarian despotic regimes” have become not only political, but also economic categories, which, literally before our eyes, are beginning to determine international economic relations to a decisive extent.

It is this system-forming factor that is already creating the New World, creating new alliances and drawing new lines of demarcation with a world where these values are not shared.

The second most important lesson — the deep crisis of the capacity of international institutions that emerged after World War II: the UN as a whole and its structures (Security Council, UNESCO, etc.), the International Monetary Fund, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the World Trade Organization.

They were created to prevent wars and to ensure the most equitable sustainable development for all members of the world community.

However, over the 80 years since the end of World War II, this system has ended with bureaucratized international institutions that have shown their incapacity and can hardly be reformed.

Suffice it to say that the country recognized by the international community as an aggressor, whose leader has been put on the international wanted list for war crimes, has committed all conceivable war crimes and continues to do so, has the right of veto in the UN Security Council and even chairs it.

In response to Russia’s deliberate destruction of dozens of UN cultural heritage sites in Ukraine, UNESCO has documented atrocities and expressed its “deep concern”.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated at the Group of Seven (G7) meeting in May 2023: “In the face of the economic shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it has failed to fulfil its core function as a global safety net. It’s time to reform both the Security Council and the Bretton Woods institutions… in line with the realities of today’s world”.

Ignoring these conclusions from the conceptual crisis and the crisis of capacity will inevitably make the fate of humanity dependent on the unpredictable decisions of individual leaders, political groups or individual countries.

The most promising way is the gradual transformation of the current international structures, primarily security systems, into more capable ones, taking into consideration the new civilizational reality, value and organizational prospects.

The Birth of a New World Architecture

This promising path is already beginning to take on concrete features: instead of global collegial decisions (a majority in the UN, the Security Council, etc.), a more flexible system is being formed, the procedure of which allows a smaller number of participants to achieve the necessary goals, taking into consideration international legal norms.

Today, this system is represented by the Ramstein Coalition, created in April 2022, by the decisions following the meeting of the North Atlantic Alliance in July 2023 (Vilnius Summit Communiqué), as well as international consultations of advisers to heads of state in August 2023 in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) regarding the implementation of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s “Philosophy of the Ukrainian Peace Formula”.

In the process of resolving these problems, is emerging a large-scale project of Ukraine’s participation in ensuring the security of the not yet created, but quite real world of the near future, where the possibility of the aggressor to wage war will be completely excluded and where there will be clear algorithms for ensuring the basic values of society: the rights and freedoms of the individual, international law, democracy, humanism, economic and environmentally balanced development.

This is quite clearly seen in the activities of the Ramstein Coalition [2]. Coalition members are providing military assistance to Ukraine in repelling the Russian invasion. At the moment, more than 50 states are participating in the work of the group (all NATO countries, most EU member states and allies from Africa and Asia).

Within the framework of the Ramstein format, there is an increasingly close integration: not only military, but also economic, political, ideological. There is an increase in the number of participants and an expansion of the tasks that they fulfill in the face of the challenge posed not only to Ukraine, but also to the entire world order.

The philosophy and policy of the Ramstein Coalition are rightly compared with the philosophy and policy of rejecting the misanthropic ideology of fascism of such members of the anti-Hitler coalition as the United States and the United Kingdom during the Second World War.

The Economic Context of the Ramstein Coalition

We live in a world where the economic power of states is used not only for development. The economy is used as a defensive and offensive weapon. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the reaction of democratic countries are clear evidence of this. The strength of these weapons is now on the side of the Coalition.

Economic, technological and military potentials of the Coalition:

• the economic potential of the Ramstein Coalition is 47.2 trillion US dollars — 46 % of world GDP;
• the total Composite Index of National Capability of the Coalition — 0.385 (with a total of 1.008 for all countries);
• 15 countries of the Coalition are in the top 20 by the Global Innovation Index 2022;
• 13 countries of the Coalition are in the top 20 of the world research rankings;
• the Coalition countries account for 55 % of articles published in scientific journals included in the Science Citation Index;
• 16 countries of the Coalition are in the top 20 of the Human Capital Index 2020, published by the World Bank;
• 15 countries of the Coalition are in the top 20 in the Human Development Index for 2021–2022;
• NATO member countries (Coalition members) have agreed to increase their military spending to at least two per cent of their GDP. Many Coalition (non-NATO) countries have also increased their defense spending. This will not only radically increase the collective military power of the Coalition, but will also create the basis for its technological leadership.

Within the framework of the Ramstein format, political, economic, military, humanitarian and financial dominance in the world can be realized on the basis of basic humanistic values.

This opens up a wide scope for conflict-free interaction between countries on different continents with different historical traditions, religions and levels of economic development.

The ideology of the future union (or coalition of unions) can include the best practices created within the framework of the UN, however, supported by effective mechanisms that ensure their implementation in practical terms.

In addition to creating a truly capable system of international security in a military sense, within the framework of the Ramstein Coalition, it is possible to implement the following ambitious projects:

• creation of local (regional) unions based on common humanistic values;
• implementation of environmental projects at the local (regional) and planetary levels;
• possibility of transition to a new monetary and financial system based on new technological principles and solutions.

Reasons for Optimism

Now in the world there are clear trends in different (military, economic, political and ideological) spheres, inspiring cautious optimism.

The Ramstein Coalition’s Economy as a Foundation for Change

The economic success of the Coalition countries to a decisive extent depends on the reboot of the world economy and politics, the success of the transition from the fifth technological order to the sixth.

It can be stated that the leading countries of the Ramstein Coalition have successfully survived the economic shocks associated with the transition to the dominance of values-based political decisions in the economy over purely economic pragmatic decisions.

In connection with the sanctions against the aggressor, its accomplices and allies, the logistics and technological chains developed over the years have been destroyed.

However, through coordinated actions, it was possible to overcome the “logistical shock” and create new logistical and technological links.

Such a transformation is designed to guarantee the countries of the Coalition protection from the risks of using economic weapons against them by the countries of the “axis of evil” and countries that have decided to join the axis in the future.

The United States and the European Union

The USA’s economy is in optimal condition and has good prospects.

US inflation slowed to its lowest level in more than two years, with the USA’s unemployment rate decreasing to 3.5 % in July 2023.

The industry is actively reviving: new plants are being opened and production is being returned from abroad (in the United States today, 6 new plants are being built per day, in the field of advanced technologies included).

Europe, despite numerous challenges, has found an effective economic model and is undergoing a historic transformation.

First of all, dependence on Russian energy carriers has been overcome.

Also, like the United States, the process of high-tech reindustrialization has started in leading countries of the EU.

In particular, Europe reasonably expects to become a leader in the global semiconductor race in the coming years (increasing its share of the global market from 10 % at present to at least 20 % by 2030).

A New Policy of Multi-Dimensional International Security

The most important direction of a truly revolutionary transformation of the world is the development and implementation of security guarantees for Ukraine, which are the trigger for the creation of a multi-level network security system on a global scale.

The new system is likely to replace the inefficient existing one.

The contours of such a system emerge in the process of security decisions of the subjects of the process caused by the Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Decisions are made within the framework of:

• individual countries;
• regional unions;
• NATO;
• European Union;
• Group of Seven;
• Group of Twenty;
• the Ramstein Coalition;
• a coordinated situational response of several countries to a specific event.

Decisions of NATO and Group of Seven Countries

On the sidelines of the NATO Vilnius Summit in July 2023, the leaders of the Group of Seven countries:

• reaffirmed their commitment to an independent, democratic and sovereign Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders, capable of defending itself and deterring possible aggression in the future;
• approved the relevant Declaration, which, in particular, states that the G7 countries will work to ensure a sustainable force capable of defending Ukraine now and deterring Russian aggression in the future.

This support unit includes:

• security assistance and modern military equipment, across land, air, and sea domains, as well as by promoting increased interoperability with Euro-Atlantic partners;
• support to further develop Ukraine’s defense industrial base;
• training and training exercises for Ukrainian forces;
• intelligence sharing and cooperation;
• support for cyber defense, security, and resilience initiatives, including to address hybrid threats.

Guarantees of economic support (including for reconstruction and recovery) and for the implementation of reforms in Ukraine as part of the movement towards NATO standards are also spelled out.

The declaration guarantees that in the event of Russia’s future attack, the G7 countries will quickly provide Ukraine with additional security assistance, military equipment and economic support.

The document recognizes the need to create an international mechanism for compensation for damage caused by Russia’s aggression. The guarantors reaffirm that Russia’s sovereign assets will remain immobilized until Russia pays for the damage it has caused to Ukraine.

These guarantees will be valid until Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, which at the moment (until the creation of a comprehensive new system) is the most reliable guarantee of security.

US President Joe Biden said at the Group of Seven meeting: “We’re going to help Ukraine build a strong, capable defense across land, air and sea, which will be a force of stability in the region and deter against any and all threat”.

The declaration also means the start of negotiations with Ukraine to formalize guarantees through bilateral commitments.

Any country that officially agrees to provide certain guarantees to Ukraine at the bilateral level on the basis of specific long-term commitments can join the G7 Declaration.

To date, 18 European countries have already joined the G7 security guarantees: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Portugal, Romania and Spain. And this process continues.

Work has begun on bilateral agreements with each of the partners. The first such states were the United States and the United Kingdom.

These issues are discussed in more detail in the 90 paragraphs of the Vilnius Summit Communiqué.

Decisions on the Creation of Broad Security Structures, Including with the Participation of Countries Outside the Coalition, NATO and the G7

The first big meeting on ensuring Ukraine’s security in this format took place on June 24, 2023 in Copenhagen (Denmark). National Security Advisers of Ukraine, the G7 countries and the Global South discussed the implementation of the Zelenskyi’s Peace Formula.

Representatives of 15 countries [3] and the EU delegation were present.

The summit in Copenhagen was actually a continuation of the Nordic summit with the participation of Ukraine, which took place on May 3, 2023 in Helsinki (Finland), where 6 countries were represented.

The second big meeting, which was attended by representatives of 38 countries [4] (plus representatives from the EU and the UN), was held on August 5–6, 2023 in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia).

The participants of the meeting came to the conclusion that the Russian-Ukrainian war is not a local conflict in Europe, but a global one. It has a negative impact on the whole world in all major spheres of human life: from the destruction of the international order to issues of energy, military, nuclear, environmental and food security.

It is of fundamental importance that the meeting in Jeddah was a meeting of politicians who share common civilizational values. It is noteworthy that the subject of discussion in Jeddah was the 12 points of the Philosophy of the Ukrainian Peace Formula, proposed by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi.

In the absence of even a theoretical possibility of using the levers of any pressure on each other, the participants were unanimous that any position on the Russian-Ukrainian war and plans to end it should be based on respect for the territorial integrity of Ukraine — that is, on a fundamental value criterion, and not on the cynical realpolitik that Russia imposes on the world.

That is why Russia was not invited to the meeting.

Beijing’s participation in the Jeddah summit testifies to China’s desire not to oppose itself to the world, but to be an active participant in global processes based on values.

The next global summit on a peace formula based on civilized values may be held on the sidelines of the Group of Twenty (G20) summit in India this autumn.

Self-Determination of Once Neutral Countries in the Attitude to Russia’s Aggression, Regardless of Their participation in Established or Emerging Security Structures

Many countries that formally remain neutral are beginning to reduce their economic relations with Russia, decrease their presence or level of representation in international forums initiated by Russia, impose their own economic sanctions or join international ones, prohibit the use of symbols of aggression against Ukraine on their territory, suppress propaganda in support of aggression, etc., etc.

And this is not just out of fear of falling under secondary sanctions. Responsible leaders of those countries understand that in a world formed on the basis of new principles, it is necessary to follow the relatively powerful world mainstream.

Agreed Situational Decisions of a Group of Countries Regarding a Specific Event

A case in point is the Joint Communiqué signed by 91 countries condemning the use of food as a weapon of war.

The 91 signatories are more than just NATO countries, the EU or Ramstein format members. This means that the countries of the Global South are gradually beginning to determine their attitude to the aggression, and the number of once neutral or even positive attitudes to the Putin regime is becoming less and less.

At the moment, this condemnation applies only to Russia, but such decisions should be considered as one of the response options to ensure international security.

Conclusion

The Russian-Ukrainian war is a battle for the future of human civilization.

Before our eyes, on the basis of fundamental humanistic values, a network multi-contour and effective security structure of the New World is being created, which is designed in the near future to replace the ineffective bureaucratized institutions of the Old World.

This is an objective trend.

This is a mechanism for the collective survival of human civilization in the face of unprecedented common challenges. While in the past such a mechanism for each subject of the world community was a pragmatic and cynical concept of realpolitik, now the pragmatic mechanism of survival is a decisive rejection of it.

The new system, in addition to the basic value system, will have a legal, economic and effective power component. It will include mechanisms for coordinating moral, diplomatic, legal, economic and military pressure on the destroyer of the security system, similar to those that exist within each country regarding offenders.

The future safe and humanistically oriented universal civilization is possible only if the process of its creation is translated into a conscious and coordinated public policy.

Countries and peoples who are correctly oriented in this trend can count on their rightful place in the world distribution of labor.

While Ukraine is waging a heroic war against the aggressor, and countries are overcoming the ideological crisis and the crisis of the capacity of world institutions, openly despotic regimes are consolidating. The formation of an alliance of despotisms and their ever closer coordination among themselves constitutes a fundamental threat to peace, which includes all types of threats: military, technological, environmental and humanitarian.

The consequences of not creating a new architecture of the world system of international interaction will be fatal. Therefore, the wisdom of the peoples and the responsibility of their leaders for the right decision are now critically important.

Periodically arising disputes between politicians of individual Western countries and Ukraine, as well as within the elites of the Ramstein Coalition, the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance and other states participating in the Vilnius summit, “who owes whom more’”, and “whether the West is tired of helping Ukraine” are devoid of constructive meaning.

For the establishment of the New World, the direct victim of Russian aggression — Ukraine pays with the blood and suffering of its citizens, and democratic countries — as participants in the dominant force of the New World — contribute with weapons, finances and unity based on an understanding of the world perspective.

This is a system of two inextricably linked components.

Ukraine is fighting for its physical survival. Democracies are acting for their own meaningful, predictable, secure and humanistic future.

The answer to the question: “Who owes whom more?” is simple: if the Russian aggressor succeeds, Ukraine will have neither the present nor the future, and humanity will not have a democratic and humanistic perspective (and most likely, no prospects for survival at all).

* * * * *

This Manifesto is the realization of our intention to prevent the fatal mistake of some Western politicians trying to preserve Putin’s regime as the “lesser evil”, about which we wrote about in our Appeal to the Peoples and Leaders of Democratic States on July 5, 2023.

Notes:

[1] Sovereign (or governed) democracy is the linguistic formula of the authoritarian political philosophy of the Putin regime.
“The aim of this doctrine is concentration and retention of political power and property at all costs. The consequences are already evident — the triumph of populism, the progressive destruction of public and state institutions, the departure from the principles of legality, democracy and a market economy”. (M. Kasyanov, former Prime Minister of the Russian Federation. 29.08.2006).

[2] On April 26, 2022, the first meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, also known as the Ramstein Coalition (or Ramstein format), was held at the Ramstein military base (Germany).

[3] Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States.

[4] List of countries whose representatives participated in the world summit organized in Saudi Arabia:
North America: Canada and the United States;
Middle East, Asia: Australia, Bahrain, China, India, Japan, Jordan, Korea, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey;
Europe: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom;
Africa: Egypt, South Africa, Union of the Comoros;
South America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile.

 

About the Authors:
	Volodymyr Shevchenko, the former aide to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Doctor of Philosophy
	Andrii Savarets, Chairman of the Center for Digital Economy Development