Rollback of Democracy in the World: Reasons and Conclusions for Ukraine

Victor Hvozd
Doctor of Military Sciences

 

 

One of the main consequences of the end of the global confrontation between the Eastern and Western blocs in the late 20th century was the emergence of favorable conditions for the spread of democracy in the world. The creation of a democratic state system has also become the main achievement of Ukraine as a prerequisite for its European development. But then, democratic processes were being replaced by the rise of totalitarianism in many countries. Moreover, totalitarian regimes use the peculiarities of democratic systems in other countries for their own purposes in order to undermine their internal stability. Such approaches underlie Russia’s hybrid warfare against the West and Ukraine. In turn, this requires an appropriate response from Ukraine in terms of ensuring a reasonable balance between the observance of democratic norms in the country and their certain limitation to counter negative external influences.

 

Freedom in the World 2021
The Freedom House report “Freedom in the World 2021”

In March of this year, the international human rights organization Freedom House published a report “Freedom in the World 2021”, which contains the annual country-by-country assessment of political rights and civil liberties. The document concludes on the further decline of global freedom in the world since 2006. As a result, the number of countries that have been granted Not Free status has reached its highest level in 15 years, and less than a fifth of the world’s population now lives in Free countries. This trend applies not only to authoritarian countries such as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, but also to many democracies, including the United States and India.

Deterioration of the state of democracy is also recorded in Ukraine, which is associated with the inhibition of Zelenskyy’s reform campaign against the background of the pandemic and political corruption, which resulted in a constitutional crisis. At the same time, there is a decline in political rights and civil liberties in the Russian-occupied territories of Crimea and the Donbas.

However, the Freedom House report and most other assessments on the issue raised only some of the reasons for these changes without a systematic analysis. As a result, the possibility of a correct understanding of geopolitical processes taking place in the world is limited. Besides, this applies to changes in the state of global freedom and democracy, as well as other spheres. In view of the above, it is considered appropriate to pay more attention to the origins of the trend of the growing totalitarianism both at the global level and in individual regions and countries. Based on this, a forecast can also be made of what to expect next.

Despite the allegedly “abstract” nature of this issue, it is important for Ukraine, which remains at the intersection of the interests of the totalitarian Russia and the relatively democratic West. They are the ones who have a decisive influence on the situation around Ukraine and its security.

Under such circumstances, Putin’s totalitarian regime uses the features of democratic systems in Ukraine, Europe and the United States to undermine their internal stability. This is the basis of Moscow’s hybrid warfare, which aim to create conditions for restoring Russian control over Ukraine and weakening the West. A number of other totalitarian countries act in a similar way, which poses a threat to all democracies in the world.

Global democratic decline
Global democratic decline, according to Freedom House

…The current trend of global decline in democracy, like all other geopolitical processes, is determined by a number of global factors…

However, the current trend of global decline in democracy has deeper reasons. Like all other geopolitical processes, they are determined by a number of global factors, which include changes in the system of international relations, transformation of the world economy, as well as the interests of the world’s leading countries and various social groups. At this, all of the mentioned processes, as a rule, have a cyclical character, which also concerns democracy and respect for human rights.

Thus, the first democracy in the world was the early Roman Republic, which existed before our era. Of course, it cannot be called a true democracy, but it is it who laid the foundations of legal relations in a society. Most other states at the time had strict autocratic regimes that completely excluded any elements of democracy and human rights. Moreover, as is known from history, the Roman Republic was replaced by the totalitarian Roman Empire, and then the monarchies of the Middle Ages.

But then, the development of the world economy and the spread of capitalism have caused an objective need for democratic change in the world. This is what had led to the emergence of such a phenomenon as American democracy, as well as bourgeois revolutions in Europe and then in Russia. But the escalation of contradictions between the world’s leading powers, which had led to the First and Second World Wars, and then the Cold War in the world, again caused the collapse of democracy and the spread of totalitarianism.

After the collapse of the USSR and the end of the Cold War, this situation again changed in terms of the spread of democratic processes in the world. However, in the mid-first decade of the 2000s, they faced a number of significant challenges, both in individual countries and globally. First of all, the reason for this was the emergence of new challenges and threats to the overall stability of the world, as well as the security of most countries and their ruling regimes. In order to counter such threats, the governments of many countries moved from developing democracy to strengthening government and public administration systems in all major processes (including civil society), restricting the rights and freedoms of the population, and enhancing the role of security services, law enforcement agencies, and repressive apparatus.

The pandemic impact on global democracy
The pandemic impact on global democracy, according to Freedom House

Based on the analysis of the situation in the world since the early 2000s, the main sources of the above threats and trends were:

  • emergence of new centers of power and escalation of contradictions between them, which led to the resumption of global confrontation and the growth of conflict potential in the world. In this regard, indicative is the fact that the level of democracy in the world began to decline in 2006–2007 after Russia’s moving to confrontation with the West. At the same time, rapid economic growth began in China, which took the place of the main competitor of the United States;
  • intensification of actions of the world’s leading states to expand their spheres of influence, which provokes resistance from other countries and creates new sources of local and regional conflicts. Examples of this are Moscow’s attacks on Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, which catalyzed an intensification of the confrontation between Russia and the West to the level of a new Cold War and, consequently, the rollback of democratic processes;
  • emergence of other sources of tension, armed confrontation and conflicts that hinder the development of democracy. In particular, the reason for this is global climate change in the world, which has become especially dynamic since the early 2000s. On the one hand, such changes could expanded access to Arctic communications and energy reserves, but on the other hand, they exacerbated the shortage of drinking water and food in some regions, especially in Africa. In the long run, global warming can lead to a catastrophic rise in the level of the world’s oceans and cause mass relocations with all the negative consequences. By the way, it was the mass migration of peoples that caused the collapse of the Roman Empire in the early first millennium AD and complete abolition of the foundations of democracy in Europe;
  • growing instability of the world economic system, which leads to economic crises and exacerbates socio-economic problems and causes increasing political tensions in most countries. Manifestations of this trend were the global financial and economic crises of 1998 and 2008, as well as the consequences of the 2020 pandemic. All of them have led to the spread of protest activity in many countries around the world on socio-economic grounds and, as a result, have undermined the political positions of their governments, and in some cases have caused their resignations;
  • deepening inequality between rich and poor countries and regions, leading to mass migration to the United States and Europe from South America, Asia and Africa. In turn, this creates the basis for increasing interethnic tensions in the United States and the EU, as well as the rise of extremism and terrorism;
  • the world’s leading states’ and other countries’ using new methods of hybrid warfare, which include various forms of subversive activities against their opponents in political, economic, special and other spheres. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, such methods have been at the heart of Russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine. Moreover, they became especially active after the democratic changes in Ukraine as a result of the Orange Revolution of 2004;
  • growth of personal ambitions of the leaders of a number of countries, who have taken the position of maintaining their power on a permanent basis under any circumstances and at any cost. In particular, in the early 2000s, totalitarian and virtually unchanged ruling regimes were finally established in Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. In fact, they complemented long-standing totalitarian regimes in most of the Middle East and North Africa, including Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia;
  • intensification of other factors that force governments to restrict the rights and freedoms of citizens. First of all, epidemics, natural disasters and technological catastrophes such as accidents at nuclear power plants, petrochemical plants, etc. After the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986, the main one was the disaster in Japan at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011.

Also, there is a number of countries with traditional totalitarian regimes based on various ideological and religious principles. In most cases, this applies to communist ideology or radical Islamism. As noted above, they include China, North Korea and Iran. As well as Russia, which in principle cannot be a democratic country due to consisting of different (including incompatible) nations and peoples with their historical territories, which were conquered and forcibly incorporated into the former Russian Empire.

 

…The nature of the confrontation of the United States with China and Russia will be of key importance, which is the main source of instability in the world…

All these factors will continue determining the development of the situation with democracy in the world in the future. However, the nature of the confrontation of the United States with China and Russia will be of key importance, which is the main source of instability in the world and influences all other processes. Given the high probability of further complication of relations of Washington with Beijing and Moscow, which have fundamentally different interests, we should also expect a continuation of the trend of democratic rollback in the world.

At the same time, the development of new information and communication technologies will promote the ideas of liberalization, democracy and respect for human rights. The consequence of this may be an escalation of internal confrontation in a number of countries based on the struggle against their totalitarian regimes. In particular, we should expect a new wave of “color” revolutions in post-Soviet territories, as well as intensification and expansion of protests by opponents of the Putin regime in Russia. Another outbreak of protests in China, especially in Hong Kong, should not be ruled out either.

Under such circumstances, the leaders of totalitarian countries will continue to toughen their regimes and increase repression against the opposition. At this, in order to justify such actions and divert the attention of their own population from internal problems, some of them may escalate the confrontation with their opponents or carry out aggression against neighbors.

 

…Russia “exports” totalitarianism both to the occupied territories of Ukraine and to some other countries of the former Soviet Union that support pro-Russian policies…

First of all, this applies to the Putin regime, which is trying to strengthen its positions by consolidating the Russian population around itself under the slogans of fiercely defending Russia’s interests against the West, as well as “protecting compatriots” in other countries. As part of such a policy, Moscow is deliberately intensifying its confrontation with the United States and Europe and continuing its aggression against Ukraine. Due to the complication of socio-economic problems in Russia, such actions by Moscow have recently intensified, which has led to the current situation in Russian-American and Russian-Ukrainian relations.

Besides, Russia “exports” totalitarianism both to the occupied territories of Ukraine and to some other countries of the former Soviet Union that support pro-Russian policies. In particular, Moscow provides direct assistance to the totalitarian Lukashenko regime in Belarus in its confrontation with the domestic opposition and the West. As a result, today Belarus is, in fact, on the side of Russia in its conflict with Ukraine, which opens another front of military threats to our state.

Violations of democratic norms and principles also occur in other countries neighboring Ukraine. An example of this is the policy of the Hungarian government led by V. Orban, which allows harassment of the judiciary and the media, which was condemned by the EU leadership. In addition, like Russia, V. Orban’s government uses in its interests the “protection of compatriots” abroad, including in Ukraine. The consequence of such actions of Budapest is the complication of the situation in Trans-Carpathian region of Ukraine.

 

…Ukraine needs to find a reasonable balance between the observance of democratic norms in the country and their certain limitation to counter negative external influences…

In general, these circumstances require Ukraine to have a more balanced attitude to the development of democratic processes in the country. Democracy is an integral part of the Ukrainian society, which requires taking this fact into consideration when building the Ukrainian statehood. Ignoring such principles usually leads to revolutions in Ukraine. At the same time, these factors create opportunities for external influence on Ukraine through its democratic institutions. In a number of cases, this has already caused chaos in Ukrainian history.

Given this, plus the growing threats to Ukraine from Russia and a number of other neighboring countries, democracy in Ukraine must be reasonable. In particular, such an approach means observance of democratic norms and human rights in the country, but without loss of state control. Moreover, the need to counter these threats requires certain limitations in the work of democratic institutions.

Achieving balance on this issue is a difficult task that requires careful study of all related issues and international experience, as well as appropriate decision making by the executive and legislative powers of Ukraine. Without this, Ukraine will not be able to defend its interests and remain a democratic European state.

 

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