Why Does Russia’s Propaganda Impose the Thesis of a “Hopeless Situation for Ukraine”?

Ivan Sichen

In previous articles, we have already drawn attention to the attempts of some countries and political forces to impose Russia’s conditions for ending the war on Ukraine, which are fundamentally contrary to Ukraine’s interests. All such initiatives are rejected by Ukraine and do not find support from our Western partners. In view of this, Russia, with the support of its satellites, is increasing pressure on Ukraine in both the military and information spheres. Thus, against the background of continued offensive actions of the Russian troops and intensified air attacks against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, the enemy is stepping up efforts to undermine the morale of Ukrainian society. As part of these efforts, Russian media and agents of influence are promoting ideas about “a hopeless situation for Ukraine, which requires it to urgently return to negotiations with Russia and make concessions to the latter”. At this, Moscow uses the methods of so-called gray disinformation, which are based on a biased presentation and distortion of real facts, which are given a completely different sound. Such methods are highly effective and allow Russia to achieve some of its goals. So let’s take a closer look at them.

To begin with, let’s recall the main narratives of Russian propaganda. At the moment, they can be summarized into a few information directions within which the following theses or statements are promoted:

• “the situation at the front is catastrophic for Ukraine, and Ukrainian troops cannot hold back Russia’s offensive”.
• “Ukraine has critical problems with mobilization, which cannot meet the needs of its Armed Forces”;
• “Zelenskyi’s Victory Plan, Peace Formula and other Ukrainian initiatives have failed and are not supported by the West”;
• “The prospects for Trump’s return to power in the United States are beyond doubt, as is the termination of assistance to Ukraine by the new US administration”.
• “Moscow is seizing the initiative in international relations and changing the international community’s attitude to Ukraine, as shown by the growing role of the BRICS group in the world”;
• “Ukraine’s economy and its energy system are virtually destroyed, which deepens the socio-economic crisis in the country and creates the basis for anti-government protests that may begin in the near future”.

Based on the above, the conclusion is drawn that “there are no prospects for Ukraine’s victory in the war with Russia”. At this, the only way out for Ukraine is once again called the need to “stop resisting Russia and start negotiations with Moscow on Russia’s terms”. Unfortunately, some Ukrainian media and “authoritative” experts who deliberately or due to lack of knowledge of the situation distort the real state of affairs in favor of Moscow and contribute to the spread of such opinions. The same is true for many Western publications and experts.

Well, there are indeed many problems in Ukraine, including some of an extremely acute nature. However, they are not catastrophic for Ukraine. Russia is facing no less difficult problems. Therefore, the above statements require an objective assessment to understand the real state of affairs. Let’s look at the situation in more detail.

Firstly, the situation at the front is indeed extremely difficult for Ukraine. In October 2024, the Russians managed to capture the cities of Vuhledar and Selidove, as well as a number of other settlements, which creates the impression of a significant acceleration of the Russian offensive. However, the Russian troops “gnawed through” the defense of the mentioned cities for two-three months, as a result of which they suffered significant losses and lost valuable time on the eve of winter. The Russian troops continue their offensive, but the pace of their advance is gradually slowing down.

Thus, after retreating from Vuhledar and Selidove, Ukrainian troops are preventing new Russian breakthroughs and holding back the aggressor on the outskirts of Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Kupiansk. In Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, there are protracted urban battles. In the South of Ukraine, no tangible changes are being happened at all. In Kursk region, Russia is unable to regain control of the lost territories. In general, the situation on the contact line is returning to a positional confrontation, and the Russian troops should lose their offensive potential by the end of 2024. The Russians are no longer able to simultaneously demonstrate a high level of activity along the entire front line, so they concentrate their efforts only on a few most important areas.

Secondly, after some positive developments in the mobilization process in Ukraine in the first half of 2024, its pace has slowed down significantly. As a result, the ability to compensate for losses at the front and form new units of the Ukrainian army has deteriorated.

Although Russia’s mobilization potential is much higher than Ukraine’s, the Russians face no lesser problems. This is manifested by a decrease in the number of people willing to join the contract service, as well as a decrease in the number of conscripts. The reasons for this trend have already been discussed in previous articles. As a result, Russia is only able to replenish its troops, but is unable to increase their number to create powerful strike groups and accumulate reserves. This is the reason for Russia’s inability to achieve decisive success in the war.

Thirdly, Ukraine’s initiatives to win the war and establish a just peace cause the West’s ambiguous attitude. First and foremost, this concerns Ukraine’s desire to become a NATO member and to obtain permission to use Western weapons against targets deep inside Russia. At the same time, Ukraine’s partners not only continue to provide military and other assistance to Ukraine, but also increase its volume, which remains the main key to effectively deter Russia’s aggression. Thus, despite delays and other difficulties, the G7, the United States, NATO, and the EU continue to fulfill all their commitments to allocate funds for the purchase of weapons for Ukraine.

Besides, in September-October 2024, Western partners launched new programs to support Ukraine. For example, they began investing in the production of weapons on Ukrainian territory, which, among other things, will allow them to be used without any permits or restrictions.

Fourthly, the possible election of Donald Trump as US President will not affect Washington’s attitude to Russia’s war against Ukraine. It is known that during Trump’s previous cadence in 2017–2021, the United States continued to provide assistance to Ukraine and even strengthened sanctions against the Putin regime. Moreover, it was during Trump’s presidency when the United States supplied Ukraine with the first portable anti-aircraft and anti-tank missile systems, as well as field artillery. The United States also tripled its spending on European security, in particular, to deploy additional US troops in Central and Eastern Europe. Therefore, some of Trump’s election slogans and promises will not necessarily be realized in practice. It should be reminded that the United States is a parliamentary-presidential republic, where the President cannot act without the consent of Congress, which maintains bipartisan support for Ukraine.

Fifthly, Russia’s attempts to use the BRICS group to redistribute the world in its favor and oppose the West are not yielding any results. Despite the significant potential of the BRICS group, which formally involves countries with a total of 30 % of the world’s GDP and 45 % of the world’s population, it has not become an effective international organization. Since its creation in 2009, no real mechanisms of interaction between the member countries have been established, and no joint projects have been implemented.

The BRICS countries do not have a common political platform either, except for a common desire to increase the role and importance of third world countries in the international arena and reduce their dependence on the West. The results of the latest BRICS summit in October 2024 were again just another declarations of intent. At this, Moscow failed to secure international support for its actions in Ukraine, as well as approval of Russia’s initiatives to build an alternative collective security system. Even UN Secretary General António Guterres, who attended the BRICS summit in Kazan, publicly reminded that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a violation of international law.

Sixthly, the war has undoubtedly caused severe damage to Ukraine’s economy. For example, in 2022, Ukraine’s GDP fell by about 30 %. Russia destroyed more than 80 % of thermal and 30 % of hydroelectric power plants. Part of the industrial and transportation infrastructure has been destroyed. Agricultural land in the frontline areas has been decommissioned. This has resulted in rising inflation, periodic power and heat cuts, people losing their homes, and a significant deterioration in the working conditions of industry and agriculture.

At the same time, Ukraine is gradually overcoming challenges in the economic sphere. In particular, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 5.3 % in 2023 and by 4.5 % in the first three quarters of 2024. Ukraine’s energy system has been partially restored, allowing it to meet at least the country’s priority needs. We have also reduced the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure to enemy’s attacks.

Of course, we cannot match Russia in terms of our economic or human potentials. But the state of Russia’s economy and social sphere is not much better, which is a consequence of increased military spending and Western sanctions. It is important that Ukraine receives huge amounts of assistance from its Western partners, while Russia can only rely on China, on which it is increasingly becomes dependent. The amount of aid to Russia from Iran and North Korea, despite the powerful information campaign, has no strategic impact on the course of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Thus, Ukraine is able to overcome the difficulties and problems associated with the war. They are indeed extremely acute, but they are by no means a reason for the panic that Moscow is trying to provoke and impose on Ukrainian society. Ukraine has every opportunity to continue a firm course to defend its national interests. This also applies to the issue of future negotiations with Russia. Moreover, due to its own problems, Moscow is more interested in such negotiations, although it is still trying to force Ukraine to accept Russia’s conditions for ending the war.