“Freezing” the Conflict Or the War of Resources

Ivan Sichen, an expert of the “Borysfen Intel” Centre, for Gazeta.ua

According to some Ukrainian and foreign experts, Russia’s war against Ukraine is gradually turning into a so-called frozen conflict. At this, concern is expressed about the possibility of Moscow’s using this situation to restore its military potential, which has suffered significant losses during hostilities. From the beginning of 2023, the war has actually acquired a positional character. Neither side has large-scale advances. In fact, the fighting takes place only in the “grey zone” that is not controlled by anyone. At the same time, there are artillery duels. Russia continues to strike Ukrainian territory using missiles, UAVs and guided aerial bombs.

However, in fact, prolonging the war does not make any sense for Russia. It was not ready for it and, as you know, expected to defeat Ukraine in a maximum of three weeks. Time is playing against the Russian Federation, because in reality it does not have enough resources. And the ones it has, it is rapidly losing. Political, economic and military ones. Let’s look at this in more detail.

Firstly, everyone is aware of the situation of international isolation in which Russia finds itself. It has become “toxic” even for China. The latter still helps it, but hides this fact from the whole world. Moreover, the main goal of the People’s Republic of China is to turn Russia into its own province, which it has already become.

Let’s remind about the decisions of the UN General Assembly, summits of G7, NATO and the EU. Let’s also ask where are the Syrian, North Korean and other “volunteers” whom Moscow threatened to send to the front in Ukraine. None of them ever appeared there.

Secondly, Russia’s economy is collapsing at a rapid pace without any hope for its possible recovery. The production of oil and gas, as the main export products of the Russian Federation, has decreased by 75 %. Oil export by tankers is closed. And the main Russian-European oil pipeline Druzhba, which passed through Bryansk region of Russia and Ukraine ceased to exist. Now our UAVs are destroying its pumping stations on Russian territory. It may not be necessary, but it does take place.

Drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and oil depots are much more important. Russian media have downplayed their consequences, but oil depots have already been destroyed in regions of Russia adjacent to Ukraine. The only oil refinery in the south of Russia near the city of Rostov-on-Don has also been destroyed. It used to provide fuel to the entire southern group of Russian troops.

That is why there are problems with diesel fuel in the Russian Federation. Currently, it is practically not available at petrol stations, and prices for it have increased one and a half folds. Although, that’s not all. Fuel is being stolen en masse in the Russian army. It is sold to transport companies and farmers. Some of the fuel is used immediately, while the rest is stored for the future, as a result of which it disappears from the market.

Since February 24, 2022, Ukrainian troops have liquidated more than 306 thousand Russian invaders

Almost all of Europe has already abandoned Russian gas and switched to liquefied gas from the United States, Qatar and other alternative producers. And China and the countries of Southeast Asia and the Pacific region buy Russian oil and gas in small volumes and at dumping prices almost at the level of profitability of their production.

After the Western companies’ withdrawal from Russia and the cessation of their supply of materials and spare parts, Russian engineering has practically stopped its work. Something is obtained bypassing sanctions — from China and Turkey. But it is impossible to do this on an industrial scale, and the quality of Chinese goods is below any criticism.

Thirdly, due to Russia’s deindustrialization in the 1990s and Western sanctions, it cannot produce weapons on its own. Opportunities to produce barrels for guns, armored steel, bearings and even metalworking tools have been lost. Moreover, in the same 1990s, even garment factories and workshops were closed. Now military uniforms, camouflage nets, sleeping bags and other accouterments are produced in an artisanal way, in particular by schoolchildren, students and prisoners in penal colonies.

According to different sources, there will be enough tanks in Russia only until the spring of 2024. We are also destroying the artillery systems of the Russian armed forces in record quantities. It has already come to the point that instead they use obsolete tanks manufactured in the 1940–1950s, which practically do not have their own engines and are pulled by tractors to rear (closed) positions. For those who don’t know, I will say that the tank is not designed for this. It is designed for a direct fire. Therefore, such a “surrogate” of artillery has no effectiveness and just wastes artillery shells.

There are also not enough of them in the Russian army. A month ago, Ukraine began to surpass Russia in terms of the intensity of artillery fire. We don’t have too many artillery shells either. We may not be able to produce enough of them. But they are supplied to us by the United States and Europe. Already in the number of hundreds of thousands. Most of them have accurate guidance. Therefore, one of our artillery shells is equal to five Russian ones.

And this is not to mention the transfer of heavy weapons to us. We get it in increasing quantities. The media periodically write that the US Congress cancels or does not extend military aid programs to Ukraine. In reality, the US Congress maintains bipartisan support for Ukraine. And the US Department of Defense has more than $5 billion to provide military aid to our country. Despite the positions of Hungary and Slovakia, which in some way side with Russia, the European Union also supports Ukraine — both at the level of the entire Organization and individual countries.

In total, more than 5,000 Russian tanks, almost 10,000 armored vehicles, and more than 320 aircrafts have been destroyed during the full-scale war

Fourthly, the mass conscription of people for military service in Russia, as well as their flight abroad from mobilization, have led to an acute shortage of labor in the country. This applies to all spheres of industry, construction, agriculture, transport, medicine and education. This problem becomes especially acute in the border regions of the Russian Federation, which the local population leaves due to hostilities. Almost a third of its residents have left the city of Belgorod alone. And people are forcibly resettled from the settlements adjacent to Ukraine.

Moscow is trying to compensate for the shortage of personnel by purposefully bringing immigrants from Central Asia and China to Russia. They replace Russians who are sent to the front to die in Ukraine. Such a replacement is beneficial to the leadership of the Russian Federation. People arriving in the Russian Federation from Central Asian and China are more or less hardworking, for the most part, they do not abuse alcohol very much and do not oppose the authorities.

However, this is so far. Along with immigrants there come radical Islamism and interethnic contradictions. They historically exist in the North Caucasus. And now they are rising in the west and in the center of Russia. Civil war is on its doorstep. Everyone is already preparing for it. At least, the governors of Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh and Rostov regions are creating their own armies under the guise of self-defense units and voluntary people’s squads.

As part of the Russian army, the so-called named, but, in fact, national military units are being formed, which have begun to fight among themselves. There is nothing surprising in this. Russia’s residents of different nations have always hated each other. But now they have also been given weapons.

In general, these circumstances significantly complicate Russia’s ability to continue the war against Ukraine. That is why Moscow is trying to “freeze” it by imposing negotiations on us on its own terms. At the same time, it continues to put forward all the demands that were contained in the well-known Russian December 2021 ultimatum, but also seeks to secure the occupied territories for itself.

However, the Putin regime’s intentions are well known and understood. He wants to get time to restore the potential of the Russian Federation, and then to attack Ukraine again. All this is in vain. Kyiv will never negotiate with Moscow before the liberation of Ukrainian lands. And Russia will not be able to revive its armed forces, at least in the next ten years. Even with the help of China, Iran and North Korea.

And one more thing: getting a pause and extra time plays both ways. Ukraine can also use this to strengthen the state and its ability to resist the enemy. In fact, the war at the front turns into a war of resources. Russia hopes to win it from Ukraine and the West. But, as experience shows, it will lose. Because in today’s world, technology and industrial capacities are decisive, and not the availability of certain minerals or tanks, guns, aircrafts and warships produced or designed in the 20^th century.

This has been proved by Ukraine, which actually did not have its own fleet, inflicted critical losses on the Russian Black Sea Fleet and expelled it from the Crimean Peninsula. Neither Sevastopol nor Kerch, where the second shipyard and the warship were recently wrecked, can defend itself.

Author: Ivan Sichen, military expert, retired Colonel

Source: Gazeta.ua
The article is available in Russian