The Threat of a New Attack on Ukraine from Belarus: Reality Or Potential Danger

At present, the enemy’s new invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus is unlikely

Ivan Sichen, an expert of the “Borysfen Intel” Centre, for Gazeta.ua

Russia continues to view Belarus as an important starting point for a possible re-invasion of Ukraine, as it did in February-March 2022. So, it is from Belarus there are the shortest routes to Kyiv, Chernihiv and the northern part of Western Ukraine. At the same time, it is from Belarus can be launched an attack along the western border of Ukraine in order to isolate it from Europe and block the supply of weapons to our state.

Unlike last year, Russia does not have sufficient forces on the territory of Belarus to conduct a full-fledged offensive on Ukraine even with the involvement of the Belarusian army. Currently, Belarus probably hosts up to two thousand Russian troops from the RF Ground Forces, where they are undergoing training. At least as many troops were there before their rotation in July 2023.

Of these, a motorized rifle brigade or a reinforced regiment can be formed. As you know, in June 2023, about 6.5 thousand militants of the PMC Wagner were sent to Belarus. Of these, about three brigades or reinforced regiments can be formed. However, they cannot act independently and must rely on second echelons, reserves and the logistics system. This is exactly what happened at the front in Ukraine, in particular, in Bakhmut.

The basis of the armed forces of Belarus consists of four mechanized brigades, two airborne brigades, a special forces brigade, three artillery brigades and a missile brigade — a total of about 31 thousand troops. Two of the mechanized brigades protect Belarus’ borders with Poland and Lithuania and in fact cannot be used against Ukraine. Each of them must be supported by one artillery brigade. At least one airborne brigade would remain in reserve, in particular to suppress possible anti-government unrest in the country.

Today, Russia and Belarus can send against Ukraine from Belarusian territory no more than five motorized rifle and mechanized brigades, an airborne brigade and a special forces brigade, up to two artillery brigades and a missile brigade. Such forces could deliver a relatively powerful blow only on one of the sections of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, but without its operational development into the depths of Ukraine.

For that reason, the organization of a large-scale offensive on Ukraine from the northern direction would require from Moscow and Minsk a significant build-up of their forces. This could be done by transferring to Belarus an additional number of Russian troops and formation new units within the Belarusian army. However, this is a rather complicated issue.

According to different estimates, at present, about 70 % of the ground forces and aviation of the Russian aerospace forces have already been involved in the war against Ukraine. Of the remaining 30 %, no more than a quarter could be used to attack Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, since the rest should cover Russia in other directions from threats from the USA/NATO, China, Islamic extremism from Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Therefore, up to a maximum of seven motorized rifle brigades or reinforced regiments could be additionally deployed to Belarus from Russia. But the deployment of troops alone would not resolve all the problems anyway. Moscow’s opening of a new front against Ukraine would also need additional human and material resources. These are weapons, military equipment and ammunition to replenish losses, conduct hostilities and preserve the ability to deter the enemy in the above-mentioned threatening directions for Russia. And, therefore, a new wave of mobilization in the country would become inevitable.

The same applies to Belarus. Minsk’s decision to directly participate in Russia’s war against Ukraine would also require it to launch the mobilization in the country. According to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the mobilization reserve of the armed forces of Belarus is up to 290 thousand persons. And in the warehouses of the Belarusian army about 760 tanks and 1.2 thousand infantry fighting vehicles are stored. All this allows to deploy not more than seven to eight mechanized brigades and up to two artillery brigades, as well as their support units.

As a result, the total potential of the combined grouping of troops of Russia and Belarus could reach the level of about 17 motorized rifle and mechanized brigades with the support of four to five artillery and missile brigades, which would really become a serious force. But the creation of such a grouping and its actions at the front would again be associated with a number of significant problems.

The self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, is unlikely to agree to a direct war with Ukraine. This would lead to a critical aggravation of its confrontation with the West. Lukashenko did not go for it even in February or March 2022, when a quick Russian victory seemed obvious. Now the situation has taken on a completely different character. Moscow cannot make decisive progress in the war and is increasingly suffering from international sanctions, which is clearly taken into account by Minsk in its policy.

As the experience of partial mobilization in the Russian Federation last autumn showed, it is not an easy task. The overwhelming majority of the population is trying to evade it. Russia cannot provide the mobilized with the necessary equipment. Weapons and military equipment are not enough even for those troops that are already operating at the front. In particular, armored vehicles and artillery that were in the troops before the war were largely destroyed during the fighting. And long-term weapons storages are emptied by at least a third. At this, Russia’s defense industry has lost the ability to produce tanks and artillery systems, at least in the needed volumes.

Belarus can still provide the mobilization process with the necessary weapons and equipment. However, most Belarusian servicemen, let alone civilians, do not want to fight against Ukraine, as shown in the spring of 2022. Then the personnel of the units of the Belarusian army, which Minsk nevertheless agreed to throw into battle under the command of Russian officers, refused to do so. Currently, such sentiments in Belarusian society have intensified after people have understood what Russia’s war in Ukraine is like. Therefore, mobilization in Belarus could lead to mass unrest in the country and armed protests against the Lukashenko regime.

A significant deterrent to a new attack by Russia and Belarus on Ukraine from the northern direction is a significant strengthening of the defense of the Ukrainian border. Unlike last year, a sufficient number of Ukrainian Defense Forces are stationed there. A powerful system of engineering fortifications was built, including minefields, anti-tank ditches and equipped positions of military units.

The natural conditions of the region also play in favor of our state. Ukraine is separated from Belarus by the River Pripiat and the wooded and marshy area of Polissia. This allows an offensive only along major highways. They can be blocked by our defense forces, which, unfortunately, was not done before the war began.

So, at present, the enemy’s new invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus is unlikely. Moscow and Minsk may only intensify demonstration of military force and border provocations with the participation of Wagner mercenaries in order to distract the Defense Forces of Ukraine from the eastern and southern directions.

A new attack cannot be completely ruled out. However, it would make Russia and Belarus take a number of preparatory measures that they cannot hide. At this, such measures would be accompanied with significant difficulties, while Ukraine already has the necessary capabilities to repel the enemy’s offensive.

Author: Ivan Sichen, military expert, retired Colonel

Source: Gazeta.ua

The article is available in Russian