Conclusions from the G7, NATO and EU Summits

Ivan Sichen

Russia’s continuation of a full-scale war against Ukraine is provoking an increasingly harsh reaction in the world. And this is quite understandable, because the consequences of Moscow’s actions are already spreading beyond our state and pose a direct threat to the entire security system in Europe and the world.

The critical danger of such a situation necessitated urgent decisions of the world community, which led to the holding of emergency summits of the G7, NATO and the EU on March 24, 2022. The main result of these summits was to confirm the readiness of most civilized countries to create a united front against Putin’s Russia. This laid the groundwork for new mutual commitments between the United States, Europe and their security partners, but of a completely different nature than Moscow had hoped. These circumstances directly affect Ukraine, which on the one hand remains the object of aggression by Russia, and on the other – is again a determining factor of geopolitical processes at the global and regional levels.

In order to better understand the current situation, it is necessary to first mention the military-political and other processes that preceded Russia’s new war in the center of Europe. As we have repeatedly noted, preparations for Russian aggression against Ukraine began in the early 1990s, immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union. To analyze the current situation, we propose to limit ourselves to assessing the geopolitical processes of recent years that have prompted Russia to launch a new attack on Ukraine.

This is primarily due to the changes in the global balance of power, namely the de facto formation of a bipolar model of international relations led by the United States and China, which have shown the best results in overcoming the crisis processes related to the COVID-19 pandemic. In turn, Russia’s inability to cope effectively with such processes, in fact, pushed it to the background of the world political and economic system. In addition, Moscow’s attempts to establish relations with the West on the basis of a joint fight against the pandemic failed.

These circumstances thwarted the Kremlin’s plans to revive Russia as a “great world power” equivalent to other leading centers of power. At this, due to Moscow’s inability to resolve these problems by political and economic methods, it began mass demonstrations of military force as the only way to restore and consolidate its position in the world.

For example, from the beginning of 2021, the exercises of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the South-Western (Black Sea), Ukrainian and North-Western (Baltic) directions were significantly intensified. During and under the guise of exercises in those areas, Russian troops were increased, as well as worked out the full range of issues of preparation for war with Ukraine, and if necessary – with the United States and NATO at the European theatre.

And while the possibility of war with NATO was considered by Moscow mostly in a hypothetical sense, a new attack on Ukraine was not only meant, but also planned in practice. As before, establishing control over Ukraine is considered by Moscow to be the main precondition for implementing its plans to build a new form of “Russian Empire” with its own sphere of exclusive influence, changing the balance of power in Europe and preventing NATO from approaching Russia’s borders.

All this became the main goals of Moscow’s ultimatums announced to the United States and NATO last December. As you know, Russia’s main demands to ensure “guarantees of its security” included: the official refusal of the United States/NATO to provide Ukraine with prospects for membership in the Alliance; non-deployment of strike weapons near the Russian borders (first of all, on Ukrainian territory); withdrawal of American and NATO troops from the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics, as well as their de facto exclusion from the North Atlantic Alliance.

Of course, the United States, NATO and Ukraine could not agree to such demands, and rejected most of Russia’s ultimatums. After that, Russia attacked Ukraine, which aimed to achieve its own strategic goals for our country, as well as military intimidation of the West and forcing it to make concessions on “Russia’s security guarantees”.

However, Russia not only failed to implement its plans, but also found itself in a more difficult and threatening geopolitical situation. Evidence of this were the results of the G7, NATO and EU summits on March 24, in Brussels. We will not retell the decisions and declarations of the participants of the events. More important are the conclusions that can be drawn from them, namely:

• the West (as a coalition of civilized and democratic countries) did not succumb to pressure from Moscow and did not agree to comply with its ultimate demands. Moreover, Western countries and international organizations have joined forces to counter Russia new catastrophic sanctions against it and outlawed Putin’s regime as a collective war criminal. As a result, the myth that totalitarian regimes are stronger than democracies and always prevail in bilateral confrontation has been completely shattered. At this, the Kremlin’s hopes for successful countering Western and universal values with Putin’s neo-imperialism were dashed;
• the reaction of the United States and NATO to Russia’s actions has undermined its hopes for a “new era” in which the West would lose its “dominant” position and Russia would finally take its “legitimate space and place”. Although the Russian Federation has indeed taken its “legitimate place” as a world outcast. Evidence of this was the de facto isolation of Russia by Western countries and international organizations;
• intensification of Russia’s military threats not only did not undermine the unity of the West (specifically the United States and Europe), but, on the contrary, united it on an anti-Putin basis. This was evidenced by the joint US/NATO decisions to strengthen the security of the Euro-Atlantic area by increasing its military presence in the Baltic States and Central and Eastern Europe, as well as in the Baltic and Black Seas. Such decisions are a continuation of the process of forming a new system of collective security in the Euro-Atlantic area, which began in 2014;
• Russia has finally lost its international prestige and influence in the world. Currently, most Western countries not only do not accept Moscow’s ultimatums, they ignore its demands to stop arms supplies to Ukraine and threats in this regard. Similarly, no one cares about the Kremlin’s threats to provide an adequate response to the strengthening of anti-Western sanctions. In addition, Russia is losing its role as a leading supplier of oil and gas to Europe, as evidenced by the decision of the EU leadership to accelerate the process of reducing dependence on Russian energy carriers;
• the world began to believe in Ukraine, which reaffirmed its importance as an advanced outpost in deterring and counteracting Russia. This has strengthened the role of Ukraine as a full-fledged subject of international relations and one of the key factors influencing the geopolitical situation in the world, as well as increased the attention of leading Western countries. Most of them not only sided with Ukraine and continued or strengthened its support, but also changed the principles of their policies;
• in fact, the policy of the United States, which had previously refrained from directly interfering in the situation around Ukraine and shifting the solution of the Ukrainian question to France and Germany, took on a completely new character. To date, the United States has effectively assumed responsibility for Ukraine, as evidenced by J. Biden’s personal participation in NATO and G7 summits, as well as his visit to Poland. As you know, Poland is the main transit “hub” for the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine, directly bordering on it and may become the next object of Russian aggression. The European Union, which has opened a direct path for Ukraine’s European integration, has also changed its attitude to Ukraine.

In general, these circumstances are favorable for Ukraine in terms of strengthening its military capabilities as a guarantee of victory in the war with Russia, as well as strengthening international positions. To date, this has allowed Ukraine not only to contain the Russian-Horde invasion, but also to launch a counteroffensive and begin the liberation of the occupied territories.

However, the United States and NATO are still not ready to provide direct military assistance to Ukraine, including to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Besides, NATO has not yet ready to supply heavy weapons to Ukraine, including tactical aircrafts and S-300 air-defense systems. Moreover, some NATO members refuse to provide weapons to Ukraine and allow such supplies through their territory. The reason for this position of some countries is the desire to avoid a direct military confrontation with Russia, as well as the business interests of their political and oligarchic circles, which seek to preserve economic cooperation with Moscow. However, this situation is gradually changing. Thus, more and more European countries are in favor of strengthening military support for Ukraine, including the idea to deploy peacekeeping troops to its territory.

In this regard, the meeting of US President J. Biden with service members of the 82^nd Airborne Division in Poland on March 25 was indicative. According to him, American soldiers are “going to see when you are there”.