Missile Strikes on Ukraine. Russia’s Plans and Opportunities for their Implementation

Why does Russia spend huge amounts of money and stockpiles of missiles on fruitless missile strikes

 

Ivan Sichen

One of the peculiarities of Putin’s war against Ukraine in May 2023 was the intensification of missile strikes on Ukrainian territory. Moreover, for the first time since the end of last year, such strikes were resumed on the city of Kyiv. At this, the whole range of Russian missile weapons is used: air-launched cruise missiles Kh-22, Kh-55, Kh-101 and “Kinzhal”; sea-based cruise missiles “Kalibr”; ground-based ballistic missiles “Iskander”. Besides, the Russians use UAVs of various types, Iranian strike drones “Shahed” included. Most of them are destroyed by Ukrainian air defense, but some of them (or their fragments) still hit civilian infrastructure, which leads to civilian casualties, primarily in the frontline zone. However, in reality, this actually does not allow the enemy to weaken our defensive and offensive potentials. Why, then, does Russia spend huge amounts of money and stockpiles of missiles on, in fact, fruitless strikes? Let’s try to answer this question.

 

To begin with, let’s talk about how the priorities of Russia’s missile strikes on Ukraine have changed since February 2022.

…In the first war period, Russia’s missile strikes on Ukraine were mainly inflicted on the positions of Ukrainian troops, military and administrative objects…

For example, in the first war period, they were mainly inflicted on the positions of Ukrainian troops, military and partly administrative objects directly on the front line and in the front line zone, as well as in the depths of our territory. The most notable of these were missile attacks on barracks in Okhtyrka, Mykolaiv, Yavoriv and Desna, where many Ukrainian servicemen were killed.

However, the Ukrainian military quickly learned such tragic lessons, redeployed the military from the barracks to dispersed shelters. While ballistic and cruise missile strikes on the positions of Ukrainian troops on the front line turned out to be ineffective at all. Such missiles are designed to hit (point) stationary targets, and therefore cannot cause significant damage to troops in trenches or  mobile targets. It is also quite difficult to destroy disguised command posts and warehouses. Especially when headquarters systematically change their locations, and warehouses are dispersed in tactical and operational rear.

…In the spring and summer of 2022, Russia began to actively strike civilian food warehouses, fuel and lubricant storages, defense enterprises and railway infrastructure…

This was the reason for Russia’s partial change in the priorities of missile attacks in the spring and summer of 2022, when it began to actively strike civilian food warehouses, fuel and lubricant storage facilities, defense enterprises and Ukraine’s railway infrastructure. By such actions, Moscow tried to destroy the logistics system of Ukrainian troops, eliminate arms production in Ukraine, and hinder the supply of weapons to Ukraine from its foreign partners. In this way, the Kremlin tried to weaken the defense potential of our state as a guarantee for Russian troops the achievement of tangible success at the front.

…In the autumn of 2022, Russia began to launch targeted strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure…

At the same time, Moscow failed to implement its plans, except for small tactical gains. Moreover, at the front, it began to lose the initiative. Therefore, in the autumn of 2022, Russia began to launch targeted strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Moreover, it did not even hide its intentions to freeze Ukrainians to force us to make concessions. Unfortunately, the Russians managed to damage up to 70 % of the Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which caused shortage of electricity and heat and led to their temporary turning off.

But with the help of Western and other countries, Ukraine managed to cope with its energy problems. Already at the beginning of 2023, electricity and heat supply were practically restored. But Russia spent a significant number of its missiles, although this did not really affect the course of hostilities. Therefore, Russia began to inflict overt missile and terrorist strikes on civilians and civilian infrastructure.

…In 2023, Russia began to inflict overt missile and terrorist strikes on civilians and civilian infrastructure…

Of course, such terrorist “activity” did take place before. But then it most likely complemented Moscow’s efforts to achieve its main goals. Now it has come to the fore with the aim of:

  • Firstly, to demonstrate to the West steadfastness in achieving its geopolitical goals by any means, including military ones. In this context, the example of missile strikes on Ukraine demonstrates Moscow’s readiness for the same actions against our Western partners — the United States, NATO and the EU;
  • Secondly, to confirm Russia’s ability to launch powerful missile strikes not only in the front line zone, but also throughout Ukraine, including the city of Kyiv. Thus, Moscow is again trying to intimidate the Ukrainian authorities, military leadership and population in order to force Ukraine to stop resistance, not to resort to a counteroffensive;
  • Thirdly, to demonstrate that the Russian troops have significant stocks of missile weapons, despite their massive use against Ukraine. At the same time, it demonstrates the ability of the defense industry to produce various missile systems in the quantity necessary, despite Western sanctions. All this is used as another factor of pressure on the West and Ukraine;
  • Fourthly, to reveal the structure of Ukraine’s air defense system (including the location of command posts, communication centers and positions of anti-aircraft missile systems), as well as to deplete its fire resources;
  • Fifthly, to weaken Ukraine through destroying its economic potential, transport infrastructure and housing. According to the Kremlin, this will reduce Ukraine’s ability to produce civilian and military products, as well as force it to increase spending on evacuating the population from the affected areas and rebuilding the country. At the same time, by such actions, Moscow is trying to increase tension in the Ukrainian society and cause citizens’ dissatisfaction with the policy and actions of the authorities;
  • Sixthly, to take revenge on Ukraine for the actual failure of the Russian offensive in the Donbas in the winter and spring of 2023, during which the Russians had only some successes, and Moscow did not achieve its operational and strategic goals to seize the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. At this, Russia has lost the potential that it had accumulated by conducting partial mobilization last autumn. Therefore, the leadership of the Russian Federation is forced to announce a new stage of mobilization, including under the guise of calling reservists for training;
  • Seventhly, to demonstrate to the Russian population the imaginary successes in the war against Ukraine against the background of real failures in the Donbas. This has become especially relevant for the Putin regime during the May holidays, which are sacred to it. Especially when Russia was unable to collect enough troops and military equipment for the May 9, 2023 parade in Moscow, which was the smallest and shortest since 1941. The negative impressions of the Russians from this are compensated by missile strikes on Ukraine.

…However, none of the mentioned above helps Russia…

However, none of the mentioned above helps Russia. The air defense of Ukraine is already destroying up to 70 % of enemy missiles over the entire territory of the country and up to 90–100 % — over the city of Kyiv. Including the vaunted “Kinzhal” hypersonic missiles, which allegedly “cannot be shot down”. As it turned out, the US Patriot air defense system successfully copes with this task.

In the near future, additional air defense systems are expected to arrive in Ukraine from different countries — from really newest to those that are already being decommissioned, but can effectively counteract most Russian missiles and aircrafts and have an almost unlimited number of missiles. Besides, we are already receiving MiG-29 fighter-bombers. Negotiations are underway to transfer the US F-16 aircrafts. They are certainly not new, but no worse than Russia’s “newest” Su-30SM, Su-34 and Su-35 aircrafts.

…Russia’s attempts to implement its crazy plans steadily lead to a reduction of its missile potential…

As for Russia’s attempts to implement its crazy intentions and plans, they steadily lead to a reduction of its missile potential due to lack of components and production capacities. And how, then, was Moscow going to fight the United States and NATO, which have much greater capabilities?

And finally, one more fact. Ukraine already has strike UAVs capable of reaching Moscow and Volgograd, and has also begun receiving long-range Storm Shadow missiles from the United Kingdom. Therefore, it is already capable not only of shooting down Russian missiles, but of retaliatory strikes as well.

 

Схожі публікації