Ivan Sichen, an expert of the Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel”, for Gazeta.ua
The Russian occupiers are still trying to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. At the same time, during the planned offensive of the Russian army, some areas of Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions may be under attack, said Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksii Danilov. Gazeta.ua gathered expert opinions on whether the enemy will have enough forces and where Russia can really put pressure.
Ivan Sichen, expert of the Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel”:
“The Russians’ offensive has already begun. Back in January 2023. And Russia is gradually building it up — it is bringing additional forces. Moscow’s main task now is to capture Bakhmut for further development of the offensive towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The second is Avdiivka — to push our troops away from Donetsk. In Luhansk region, they are trying to push the Armed Forces of Ukraine away from Kreminna and Svatove. As well as to restore control of the lost territories in Kharkiv region. First of all, of Kupiansk — an important logistics center.
The Russians are likely to conduct local offensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia direction. It’s a distracting maneuver. They throw all their forces to the East. By the mass of troops they are trying to break our defense. People can be replaced, they are not sorry for them, but they are short of military equipment. They use it only in individual directions — be it aviation, artillery, armored vehicles.
The situation may be repeated when in the summer of 2022 the Russians captured Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk. But they did it with huge forces — and then had to take an operational pause, while the Ukrainian army moved on. And from new positions for the Ukrainian army now it is convenient to advance in order to regain control of Rubizhne, for example. The operational pause of the Russians made it possible to conduct counterattacks and to expel the enemy from the north of Kharkiv region, and later — from Kherson. The Russians will have huge losses, and again they will need a pause to replenish the losses and redeploy equipment from other directions. This will enable us to conduct counter-offensive operations”.
Author: Anastasiia Prokaieva
Source: Gazeta.ua
The article is available in Russian