Ivan Sichen, an expert of the “Borysfen Intel” Centre, for Gazeta.ua
Since June 2023, the Defense Forces of Ukraine have been conducting counteroffensive operations in the East and South of our country. At first glance, they do not have significant success. At least that’s what is said by Russian media, and, unfortunately, repeated by some Ukrainian experts. In fact, this is not the case at all. Although the units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine have not yet practically left the so-called gray zone, they do have achievements. Near the city of Bakhmut, the villages of Klishchiivka and Andriivka were liberated, which really made it possible to take Bakhmut into a semi-encirclement. Kurdiumivka is already next in line. The liberation of this settlement will make it possible to finally destroy the entire line of defense of Russian troops from Bakhmut to Horlivka.
The Defense Forces of Ukraine will undoubtedly surround Bakhmut, which will force the Russians to leave the city. And from it the way to Soledar, Popasna, Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk will open. And this is despite the fact that their capture was Moscow’s only achievement in its entire war against Ukraine. For them, Russia gave about 300 thousand lives of their citizens. And also up to 4 thousand tanks and 8 thousand armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles.
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…In fact, the entire regular army of Russia has been destroyed… |
In fact, the entire regular army of Russia has been destroyed, as well as the human potential that was accumulated during the partial mobilization last autumn. By the way, it has not yet been completed and continues in both open and hidden forms. However, it does not help Moscow in any way. As well as all those measures that were carried out by Russia to build defensive lines along the northeastern border with Ukraine and on the southern front line in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Estimated combat losses of the Russians in the war against Ukraine as of September 27, 2023, totaled more than 270,000.
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The Defense Forces of Ukraine have already broken through the first of these lines in the Melitopol direction near the village of Robotino and reached the second. There is also a breakthrough between the villages of Verbove and Novoprokopivka towards the city of Tokmak. There are about 15 kilometers left to it. The liberation of this city will block up to half of the traffic flows from Russia to Crimea. From there, our missiles will be able to reach the highway along the coast of the Sea of Azov. This will disrupt the logistics of Russian troops both on the Crimean peninsula and on the left bank of the Kherson region.
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…The Russians are doing their best to prevent the Defense Forces of Ukraine from breaking the land corridor to Crimea… |
Of course, it won’t be easy. Because the Russians are doing their best to prevent the Defense Forces of Ukraine from breaking the land corridor to Crimea and from reaching the direct approaches to the Peninsula. Under Robotino, all their remaining reserves are being collected. It is quite difficult to determine the exact number of those reserves, because the situation changes not only every day, but also every hour.
At some point in the first half of September, it was written that the Russian invaders had redeployed five airborne regiments in the direction of our offensive towards Melitopol. They are most likely already destroyed. Because no airborne regiments will be able to resist our mechanized brigades. Such regiments are simply not designed to perform such tasks.
Their functions include landing behind enemy lines and blocking communications or holding positions until the main forces approach. They do not have heavy weapons, except for airborne combat vehicles and relatively small artillery. And this is not to mention the fact that territorial defense regiments are being created in the airborne divisions of Russia. Which is complete nonsense, although everything is possible for the current Russian Federation.
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…It was Russia’s redeploying of its troops from the East to the South of Ukraine that allowed us to gain success near Bakhmut… |
Regiments of the territorial defense of the airborne troops are formed from rear guards and personnel of various auxiliary units like training centers. Most likely, they are sent to the breakthrough area of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. But even the Russian military command does not rely on them. As a result, it is already redeploying motorized rifle regiments to the South of Ukraine.
Three of them were redeployed to the Tokmak area. It is impossible to say for sure, but they could have been redeployed from the city of Kupiansk, where the orcs are trying to advance. They patch the so-called Trishkin kaftan. This is when, in order to patch a hole in one place, a piece of cloth is cut off from its other part. Kupiansk was attacked by the 41st Army of the Central Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, consisting of a tank division and three motorized rifle brigades.
It is now being replaced by the 25th Army, which was formed in the Far East of the Russian Federation. The 25th Army has only 50 % of troops, and its personnel have not undergone even minimal training. The 25th Army was sent to the front in order to plug the above-mentioned gaps.
But, if it more somewhere, then somewhere else it less. It was Russia’s redeploying of its troops from the East to the South of Ukraine that allowed us to gain success near Bakhmut. Unfortunately, our counteroffensive is not entirely successful in the Berdyansk direction — south of Velyka Novosilka and Staromaiorsk. Let’s hope that it will still succeed.
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…The Black Sea Fleet was unlucky all its life… |
I would like to mention one more topic. Ukraine, which has practically no warships, has defeated the “great naval power” that Russia considers itself for some reason. It has already lost the Black Sea Fleet. At least it can’t do anything against Ukraine. Submarines have not launched missiles at us for more than two or even three months. Now they are not launched by surface warships. Until recently, due to its ambitions, Russia called them missile ships, and now modestly — just patrol ships.
The Black Sea Fleet was unlucky all its life. Under the Emperor of Russia Peter I, who laid its foundation, it sank at the mouth of the Dnipro River. In 1853, during the Crimean War between Russia and France, the United Kingdom and Turkey, it was sunk by its own command at the entrance to the Sevastopol Bay. In 1918, during the Civil War in the former Russian Empire, most of the ships of the Black Sea Fleet were sunk in the Novorossiysk Bay. And in 1941–1943, during the Second World War, it was destroyed by the Germans, who had no fleet in the Black Sea at all, except for small boats. Now it is we who have destroyed the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, with its headquarters and all.
Author: Ivan Sichen, military expert, retired Colonel
Source: Gazeta.ua
The article is available in Russian
