Fighting in the South of Ukraine. What’s Happening at the Front

Where is Russia, which planned to seize Ukraine in two weeks, has slipped into

Ivan Sichen

A year has passed since the enemy left Kherson. But enemy troops are still shelling the city from the left bank of the Dnipro, where Russian artillery is located, which we have not destroyed yet. That is, the counter-battery fight does not stop. We will win it. At least every day we destroy several enemy artillery systems. Sometimes more than a dozen. For the first time in the entire war, we outnumber the enemy in artillery power. The Ukrainian troops are already crossing the Dnipro River near Kherson. Many bridgeheads have been captured there, and their number is constantly increasing. In the South of Ukraine, the offensive of Ukrainian troops is taking place not only in the area of Orikhiv and Velyki Novosilky, but also by breaking through our Slavutych, the left bank of which is still in enemy hands. But it won’t last long.

In February 2022, Russian troops crossed the Antonivka Bridge and captured the city of Kherson. Unfortunately, almost no one tried to defend the Antonivka Bridge at that time. And former Mayor of Kherson and People’s Deputy of Ukraine V. Saldo turned out to be a collaborator and betrayed Ukraine. Later, the enemy was driven out of Kherson. As you know, the Antonivka bridge was damaged by HIMARS missiles, as a result of which the enemy lost the opportunity to provide support to its troops. Currently, sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Russians are trying to break through in some places. However, their activity is limited to only a few islands in the floodplains near the left bank in the Dnipro delta. It is difficult to understand what exactly they want to achieve there. They cannot conduct any large-scale operations there, because the Russians do not have sufficient forces for this. Perhaps they just want to hold back the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops on the left bank of the Kherson region. But by what forces?

Interestingly, a new branch of troops has created in the Russian armed forces: territorial defense units. We also have them, but from the very beginning they were formed from the local population, from among the volunteers. But Muscovy, as always, chooses its own way. Its territorial defense regiments are created as part of divisions of airborne troops. As the saying goes, common sense cannot imagine what it all is about. However, anything can happen in Russia. Thus, these regiments are formed from rear guards and personnel of various support units such as training centers. In other words, everything available is being sent to the front. And what can be the combat capability of such units? Zero…

As we just mentioned, the Ukrainian troops are successfully crossing the Dnipro, destroying the invaders. Bridgeheads have already been captured in the areas of the Antonivka Bridge and the village of Antonivka itself, as well as the villages of Kozachi Lageri and Krynky. According to Russian propaganda, this does not mean anything, because “only some villages have been captured”… In fact, these settlements are of strategic importance. Motorways to Melitopol and Crimea run through them. Krynky is located near Nova Kakhovka, where the Russians blew up a dam at a hydroelectric power plant in June 2023. The Ukrainian troops have already recaptured more than two kilometers of territory on the left bank of the Dnipro. 10–15 kilometers more — and Kherson will remain out of reach of Russian field artillery. And Russia will lose the opportunity to take revenge on its inhabitants for the fact that they gladly met the Ukrainian troops after the Russians fled the city.

Further advance of Ukrainian troops in the southern direction on the left bank of the Dnipro will provide access to the Crimean Isthmus and create conditions for the liberation of our territories from the Dnipro Bay to Armiansk at the entrance to Crimea. In 2014, Russia set up border and customs posts there. Now they have all been destroyed, and almost the entire temporarily occupied Crimean Peninsula is under fire. Russia has already redeployed aviation and the Black Sea Fleet from there. Aviation — to the North Caucasus, fleet — to Novorossiysk and the Sea of Azov.

In this way, the Russians are trying to save at least something for the further conduct of hostilities. But soon they will lose this opportunity. The Ukrainian troops, albeit slowly but surely, are advancing. Unlike Russia, we do not set the task of capturing a hill or a settlement to any date. First of all, we are doing everything to save the lives of our fighters.

After all, American and European, as well as Ukrainian-made weapons, make it possible to successfully eliminate enemies in the South and East of our country. Last week, missile strikes at airfields in Luhansk and Berdiansk destroyed and damaged 24 Ka-52 helicopters. 15 of them — completely. This is more than Russia manufactured or restored in all of 2022. Moreover, the Russian Federation has already completely lost the opportunity to restore equipment damaged at the front in Ukraine by dismantling of stocks from storage bases.

Russia is trying to buy spare parts, in particular bearings, from China. But it is no longer possible to import them on an industrial scale. Before the war, goods from China were mainly imported to Russia by ships through European ports. To date, this path is blocked. Almost everything purchased is delivered by trains, which is less efficient. Moreover, freight trains are not able to overcome the Ural Range in full capacity. Few people know about or pay attention to such a problem. Russian railway workers need to unhook freight trains into several parts and transport them separately. Accordingly, it significantly increases the time of transportation.

The “’great world power” has also lost the capability of producing armored vehicles and barrel artillery. They have not been produced in Russia since the early 2000s. Not a single new tank has been delivered to Russian troops since the beginning of the war. There are only modernized T-72s, as well as T-80s and T-90s, which are mainly in service with the Russian marine units. Uralvagonzavod can allegedly produce 25–30 tanks per month. Even if this is true, our troops destroy this number of combat vehicles within a maximum of three or four days. Although the Russians most likely do not produce, but restore tanks that are removed from storage bases.

Some Ukrainian experts believe that there are up to 10,000 of tanks left there. According to various estimates, after the collapse of the USSR, there were 14–16 thousand tanks at Russian bases. About 2 thousand were exploited in the troops. The Ukrainian troops have already destroyed up to 5,000 tanks, more than twice what they had in the pre-war Russian army. And according to satellite photos of Russian storage bases, no more than 4 thousand tanks are located there. Moreover, up to half of them are dismantled. No engines, tracks, or even turrets. It takes 3 or 4 of them to assemble one tank. And not even the T-72, but mainly the T-54 and T-55 produced in the 1950s.

At the rate at which Russian tanks are being “demilitarized” at the front in Ukraine, their stocks will be depleted by next spring. Let’s hope that after that the war will come to an end. Because Russia does not have armor steel, cannon barrels, or even metalworking tools. Who would have thought that such simple “tools” as drills and axes are again purchased by Russia from China. In Russia itself, of all instruments only low-quality cutters for milling and lathes are produced, although no one in the world has been using such “breakthrough” technologies for a long time.

In fact, Russia is only capable of producing some types of missiles. And not many. The same 30 missiles per month, which is not enough to cause critical damage to Ukraine. The vast majority of Russian cruise, ballistic and “hypersonic” missiles are shot down by our air defense. Therefore, Moscow’s likely attempts to destroy the Ukrainian energy system, as it did last year, will not have tangible success. Some strikes can still be carried out by Iranian UAVs, but only on those regions of Ukraine that are not yet sufficiently protected by air defense.

This is where Russia, which planned to seize Ukraine in a maximum of two weeks, has slipped into. Nothing has taught the Russians: neither Afghanistan nor Chechnya, where it achieved conditional success only with the help of bribed local traitors and collaborators.