Is the Threat of Russia’s New Large-Scale Offensive Real?

How and Why Moscow Loses Its Chances

Ivan Sichen

Lately, some Western and Ukrainian media have been making predictions about Russia’s intentions to start a new full-scale offensive on Ukraine in the spring and summer of 2024. The goal of such an offensive is to fully capture Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine and even Kharkiv and Kyiv. Of course, Moscow does not give up such plans. Moreover, as we know, its strategic plans are to capture the whole of Ukraine. But the question arises: will Russia have enough forces to achieve the desired? At this, once again I will remind: for almost half a year the Russian army, trampling in the “gray zone”, cannot capture Avdiivka, move west from Bakhmut or surround or occupy Kupiansk. During such battles, tens of thousands of Russian soldiers and officers are killed, and thousands of pieces of military equipment are lost. Soldiers in Russia can still be mobilized, but there is nowhere to get the military equipment from. We have already predicted the possible further development of the situation in Russia’s war against Ukraine. However, it is worth clarifying the further development, given the recent events at the front.

Russia’s media is actively spreading reports of regular “strategic successes” of Russian troops, namely — the capture of the village of Krokhmalne in Kupiansk direction, as well as the exit onto the outskirts of Avdiivka. All this is presented as a “breakthrough of the Ukrainian front line” and almost as its “degradation and opening for Russia the path deep into the territory of Ukraine”…

In reality, events, as always, are completely different in character. The village of Krokhmalne is located in the so-called gray zone, where the area of several hundred square meters daily goes from hand to hand. All in all, there remained only five destroyed houses there. And onto the outskirts of Avdiivka, the invaders have been coming since the very beginning of the full-scale war. They are subsequently knocked out with significant losses for Russians. In this suburb of Donetsk, more Russians were killed than of Soviet soldiers during the USSR’s war in Afghanistan or in Bakhmut in May-June 2023.

In Afghanistan, Moscow did lay many people. I know this from my own experience. In those days, our unit was on duty in the Kyiv garrison about once a month. Such duty mainly meant participation in the funerals of soldiers and officers who died in Afghanistan. At least, their bodies were treated respectfully. We would receive coffins at the Boryspil Airport — zinc boxes covered with boards, or, as a last resort, plywood. They were sent to relatives, and then there was a special ceremony with all honors.

Russia has gone its own way today. At the District Clinical Hospital in Rostov-on-Don, the “522^nd Center for Reception, Processing and Departure of the Dead” is operated. It is a huge morgue with several hangars. The bodies of Russians who died in the southern region of Ukraine are delivered there. The corpses or fragments of bodies are scattered on the floor, at best covered with sheets. No one is worried at all that they are getting decomposed. In this form, they are handed over to relatives. And in some cases, just the bones in a black plastic bag. Whose body it really is — no one can tell exactly. DNA examination is denied, because, they say, there is no such opportunity. But then — when and who in Russia cared about such things! Because “they still have enough people”…

However, as we mentioned, Moscow has lost the capability of conducting at least some large-scale operations. It is well known that in the past year Russia managed to capture only one Ukrainian district center — Bakhmut. And that was done at the cost of mass casualties among the personnel of the private military company “Wagner”, which is why it rebelled. Now the “Second Army in the World” is unsuccessfully trying to capture Kupiansk and Avdiivka, as well as to eliminate the bridgeheads of Ukrainian troops on the left bank of the River Dnipro near Kherson.

The left-bank bridgehead in the village of Krynky in Kherson region is being heroically defended by only one marine battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. While the group of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation “Dnepr”, which is treading water near the mentioned direction, has about 70 thousand troops. Of course, not all of them fight against the Ukrainian bridgehead at Krynky. Most cover the entire left bank of the River Dnipro in order not to allow the Ukrainian troops to grab new bridgeheads. It also helps our defenders that the right bank of the River Dnipro is higher than the left one, which gives Ukrainian troops a benefit in the use of heavy long-range artillery. At the same time, against the Ukrainian marine battalion, which does not have its own long-range artillery, or heavy armored vehicles, the enemy uses the entire arsenal of available heavy weapons, as well as guided aviation bombs.

It is also reported that Russia has begun to concentrate its troops in Belarus and Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions of the RF. There are already 20,000 Russian troops in Belarus. These are about four brigades (or a reinforced division) or even an army (depending on the composition). About the same number of them were there in early 2022, when Russian troops began an attack on Kyiv and Chernihiv from the territory of Belarus. As then, in each of the above-mentioned regions of the RF, there are not fewer Russian servicemen. Therefore, they can start a new offensive, but they would hardly achieve any tangible success.

Along the borders of Ukraine with Belarus and with the northeastern regions of Russia, a powerful system of our defense has already been created. Its further improvement continues. It is no different from the same defense system that Russia has unfolded, and includes several rows of so-called dragon teeth, barbed wire, minefields, anti-tank ditches, platoon, company and battalion strongholds.

By the way, why were such structures not created in 2021, when Russia’s intentions to attack Ukraine were fully understood? Both Ukraine’s military intelligence and our Western partners reported about this. Unfortunately, all these messages were ignored under the pretext that “someone saw peace in Putin’s eyes”. As a result, in the first days of the war, the enemy approached Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Sumy, as well as without a fight it practically marched from Crimea to the South of Ukraine and seized Kherson, Melitopol and Berdiansk.

At that time, the real battle was given to the enemy by the units of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine — near Kyiv: Azov Regiment, Marines, National Guard and Border Guards — in Mariupol; forces of National Guard and Territorial Defense — near Chernihiv, Sumy and Mykolaiv. In no way should be underestimated the role of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But, again, the question arises: why were their forces and units not deployed in advance in the obvious directions of the enemy’s attack, although then plans for conducting command exercise “Zavirukha” were announced?

However, one way or another, but the enemy’s attack was repulsed almost everywhere in Ukraine, except for our South. At the same time, in almost two years of the war, our Armed Forces have already destroyed about 380,000 Russian attackers, up to 90 % of Russian more or less modern tanks and most of the artillery, the intensity of fire of which, compared to 2022, has decreased ten times.

We will talk about the tanks separately, because they are the main combat and striking force of the Russian army. According to Forbes’ estimates, when Russia launched the war against Ukraine, it had about 3,000 tanks. Since the beginning of the full-scale war, the Russian army has already lost 2.6 thousand tanks, which has been reliably confirmed. Although in reality many more of them have been destroyed — up to 6 thousand.

Since the times of the former USSR, long-term storage bases in the Russian territory are said to have 12 to 14 thousand tanks. But most of them have long been sold or surrendered to scrap, but de facto — just stolen. In satellite images of a few months ago, it was possible to see that there were no more than 4 thousand there. And not combat ready, but mostly dismantled. From such three or four tanks, one tank can be assembled at best. We have already mentioned that under such circumstances, the existing tanks of the Russian army will be enough, maximum, until the spring of 2024. Judging by what is happening on the front, it is true. During the attacks on the positions of Ukrainian defenders, the enemy uses no more than three tanks at once. At the same time, they are immediately destroyed, even before approaching our trenches. Therefore, the Russian military command began to save them as much as possible. Because the Russian defense industry is able to modernize (not produce!) no more than 390 tanks within a year. This number of armored vehicles is destroyed by Ukrainian defenders approximately within two weeks…

Last year, Ukraine conducted several unsuccessful attacks in its East and South. Someone in his populist purposes advertised them in advance. That is why everything came down to unjustified losses on our part. It would have been more appropriate to organize strategic defense and “grind” the troops and equipment of the enemy. But this was not done, so the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were able to re-seize the initiative in the East of Ukraine.

Considering these circumstances, quite successful and appropriate can be the Ramstein group’s proposal that Ukraine needs to move to strategic defense, at least by the end of 2024. During this time, Ukrainian troops will be able to restore and increase their potential through both the help of foreign partners and the increase of our own arms production. Russia’s economic problems will exacerbate during this time, and, after a rigid crisis by 2025, the RF may lose the ability to continue the war at the current level. This will create the basis for the victory of Ukraine in 2026. Of course, it would be desirable sooner, but as shown by the experience of last year, it is impossible. But the above scheme is already practically embodied. For example, EU countries have found more than a million artillery shells for Ukraine by March 2024. This is already more than Russia produces. Last year, armored and aviation coalitions were created within the framework of the Ramstein group to ensure the supply of relevant equipment to Ukraine. And in January 2024, an artillery coalition was formed. By the way, it should be pointed out that regardless of how much Moscow claims that NATO and the EU do not have enough equipment for Ukraine, the fact remains: there is enough and even more than in Russia. In particular, as of the beginning of 2022, there were 15,000 tanks, 7 thousand howitzers and 1.6 thousand MLRSs in the arsenal of Western countries. At this, only about 5 percent of available Western weapons have been transferred to Ukraine.

During 2024, at least a million UAVs will be manufactured in Ukraine alone. Today, they give Ukraine the opportunity to effectively wage an asymmetrical war against Russia, including the destruction of its oil and gas objects. Such strikes cause critical losses to the Russian economy, which is still maintained on oil and gas exports. In this context, the most indicative at the beginning of 2024 was the destruction of the Ust-Luga fuel terminal in Leningrad region and oil depot in Bryansk.

The first of these objects is one of the main export hubs for Russian oil in the Baltic region and was to become a similar export hub for the liquefied gas. In 2024, it was planned to put into operation a plant with a capacity of up to 13 million tons of LNG a year. The second object is the reserve oil storage to ensure the operation of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which is still used to supply oil to Hungary and Germany. The next in turn is the oil terminal in Novorossiysk. It has already fallen under the Ukrainian attack, and its final destruction will not allow Russia to export oil in the Black Sea region. Besides, the first strike was recently inflicted on the oil depot in Tuapse.

At the beginning of 2024, as a result of successful attacks of Ukrainian drones, exports of Russian oil fell to a historical minimum. Due to a significant reduction in the state budget revenues, Russia is forced to spend its latest financial reserves. According to the report of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, in 2023 almost 4 trillion rubles from the Fund of the National Welfare of the Russian Federation were spent on the war. Its liquid assets are about 5 trillion rubles, which will be enough only for the current year.

That is why economic cataclysms are expected in Russia in 2025. And even China will not be able to help the RF, because due to the threat of US secondary sanctions, Chinese banks have stopped lending to Russian intermediary companies that previously purchased goods from the PRC and supplied them to Russia. Including to the enterprises of the Russian defense industry, which works mainly on Chinese components. At this, the enterprises of the Russian defense industry are becoming just assembly shops.

For example, one of the leading Russian enterprises for the production of mobile power plants receives Chinese petrol and diesel engines from the MAZ plant in Belarus and electric generators directly from China. The enterprise itself can only produce nuts and bolts… Radio-electronic equipment of Russian missiles is also completely Chinese. However, with mainly American and European electronic components.

Due to the lack of funds, Russia is unable to purchase high quality Chinese products and is forced to limit itself to minor goods. Therefore, Russian missiles hit the residential quarters of Ukrainian cities, or fall somewhere in the fields. And the Russian air defense mostly destroys its own settlements or knock down its own UAVs or aircrafts, as it happened on January 24, 2024, with the military transport IL-76 over Belgorod region.

And with all this, Moscow tries to impose “peace talks” on Ukraine, continuing hostilities in order to force our state to concessions. It also hopes to take advantage of internal contradictions in the United States and Europe on the provision of military and financial support to our country. But the money and support we still come, though through other channels. Which cannot be said about Moscow. Therefore, we will never agree to such “peace talks”, because it is obvious that Russia will no longer be able to win.