Information As a Component of War

Russian Propaganda and the Real State of Affairs

Ivan Sichen

Lately, negative assessments for our state regarding the course and future prospects of the war with Russia have been spreading in the information space. Unfortunately, many media outlets focus on the suspension of the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops and shortage of weapons and ammunition, contradictions in the United States and the EU regarding further assistance to our country, possible “pro-Russian” changes in Washington’s policy in the event of Donald Trump’s return to power, Russia’s military and other advantages over Ukraine, etc. At the same time, due attention is not paid to Ukraine’s successes and achievements, as well as to our adversary’s own problems. Such trends have extremely negative consequences that affect the prudent perception of the course of the war by part of Ukrainian society and lead to the risk of our citizens losing their unquestioning faith in our victory. That is why there is an urgent need to find out what is really happening today.

The main aspects of the political situation around Russia’s war against Ukraine have already been discussed in the article “Partners and Opponents. What Should Ukraine Hope for Now?” I will add only one more conclusion to the above, which is confirmed by the further developments. Yes, there are indeed contradictions in the United States and the EU regarding further financial and military assistance to Ukraine, and they do hinder the strengthening of our defense. However, countries and political forces that refuse to support Ukraine mostly do so for their own mercantile reasons, and not because of a fundamentally negative attitude to our state. Therefore, the differences in the United States and Europe can be dealt with quite successfully, which is what is happening now. Of course, this takes time, but in addition to direct allocations from the US budget or allocations from EU funds, there are other forms of meeting Ukraine’s financial and military needs. They are currently being implemented in practice.

I would like to mention here just one more indicative trend. According to sociological surveys in the United States, in December 2023, the number of American citizens who support the provision of military aid to Ukraine increased from 21 % to 31 %. Another 35 % consider it necessary to continue it, at least for now. And only 30 % of respondents believe that the United States should reduce the provision of such aid. This fact is a “wake-up call” for Donald Trump and the Republican Party, who are building their election campaign on a speculative foundation around the issue of support for Ukraine. Further such speculations can only lower the election ratings, which the Republicans cannot help understanding. They understand this, and therefore they have almost reached a compromise with the Democrats on the issue of providing Ukraine with the funds it needs. Therefore, in January 2024, the US Congress is likely to decide on the allocation of 60 billion US dollars to increase Ukraine’s defense capabilities. And in February 2024, after reaching an agreement between the EU leadership and Hungary, the suspended process of allocating another 50 billion Euros from the European Union funds for the needs of our country will be unblocked. To tell the truth, this can be done without Budapest’s consent, by concluding separate agreements with EU member states. That is, without Hungary’s indirect participation. Thus, the USA and the EU’s financial assistance to Ukraine will exceed Russia’s military budget for 2024, which is only 75 billion US dollars. And taking into account the funds provided to Ukraine by its partners on a bilateral basis, this ratio will change even more in favor of our state.

The same applies to some politicians, military and experts’ the public statements about the insufficient supply of military equipment and ammunition to Ukraine by foreign partners. This, again, corresponds to the actual state of affairs. But the participants in all wars throughout the history of mankind have always strived to have as many weapons and ammunition as possible. Any outcome of the war is the result of crises associated with the lack of everything necessary for hostilities. And Ukraine, like all other countries, faces similar problems.

Perhaps not to the full extent, but our foreign partners do help us cope with such problems and will not stop supporting Ukraine. The volume of arms supplies to our country is well known, so there is no need to repeat what and in what quantities has been transferred to us by the United States, European and other countries. I will give just a few examples of such deliveries after the beginning of the spread of pessimistic trends in the information space.

In particular, in October 2023, Germany transferred additional Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft systems and ammunition to Ukraine. The total number of Gepards in service with Ukrainian troops has reached 46 systems. Six more will be handed over in the near future. In November 2023, Poland delivered 24 120 mm Rak self-propelled mortars mounted on an armored wheeled platform to Ukraine. At the same time, the international initiative UNITED24 handed over 27 M113 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.

The issue of the lack of artillery ammunition in the Ukrainian army is also being resolved. Under the already concluded contract, in 2024 the German Rheinmetall will supply Ukraine with 40 thousand 155 mm shells. Another contract provides for the production of about 100 thousand artillery mines of 120 mm caliber for Ukraine. 500 thousand shells should be provided to Ukraine by the European Union. And, finally, in order to eliminate the “shell hunger”, it was decided to increase the production of UAVs in Ukraine.

All this is just a small review of the overall process of support for Ukraine by its partners, which not only does not wind down, but also revives and expands. In particular, in December 2023, the Italian government approved the supply of military means, materials and equipment to Ukraine until the end of 2024. Denmark and Sweden have reached an agreement on the transfer of CV90 infantry fighting vehicles to our country. Initially, in a volume of about 30 vehicles, and this is already a battalion tactical group.

The United Kingdom and France intend to jointly provide further military assistance to Ukraine. And Japan is beginning to transfer missiles for the Patriot air defense system, which it produces at its own expense, to European NATO countries. They are designed to replenish the stocks of European arsenals, from where they are supplied for the needs of Ukrainian troops.

There are many such examples, but let’s dwell on what has already been said and consider what is happening at the front. Ukraine really failed to achieve tangible success in conducting a counteroffensive and was forced to go on the defensive. But then a war is a war, and usually it does not always follow the scenarios that were drawn up. Therefore, such scenarios tend to undergo changes depending on the situation that arises. At the moment, this is what has to be done by Ukraine, which resorts to a flexible strategy and tactics of warfare, namely, chooses the most effective methods of achieving certain goals with minimal losses. Such approaches are quite different from Russia’s actions. As they say, it goes straight, despite its own expenses and losses. While human lives are the highest value in our country, for Russians they are expendable.

However, under modern conditions, the strategy of suppressing the enemy with a mass of personnel, equipment and firepower justifies itself only when there is a total advantage over it, and does not work in other cases. Thus, the presence of incomparably more powerful armed forces in Russia helped it in the six-day war against Georgia in August 2008. Something similar was observed in August 2014 in Ukraine, when Russia sent its troops into the zone of the conflict it provoked in the Donbas to “save the people of the DPR/LPR”.

In 2022, Russia’s superiority over Ukraine in terms of the number of its troops no longer worked. At the beginning of the war, thanks to the suddenness of Russia’s attack, it was possible to capture large areas of Ukraine. However, over time, the use of effective methods of warfare and high-tech Western weapons by Ukrainian troops allowed our soldiers to deter and repulse Russian troops. In 2023, the “world’s second army” could not achieve even such successes. All the additional potential accumulated by Russia in the second half of 2022 due to partial mobilization in the country and the transfer of its economy to a war footing actually allowed it to capture only the regional center of Bakhmut in Donetsk region and the suburbs of Donetsk — the city of Marinka.

Since the autumn of 2023, Russia’s war against Ukraine has essentially become positional, albeit with heavy and bloody battles. At the same time, the armed confrontation between Russia and Ukraine is increasingly becoming a “war of resources”. This is what Moscow is hoping for, believing that it will maintain its advantage in this sphere. It would seem that it really has all the necessary reasons for this. However, it is only at first sight, based on the misleading impressions that are carefully formed by Russian propaganda. The real situation is completely different in nature, especially if we consider it as a whole.

Let’s start with allies and partners, without whom no country can wage a successful war, no matter what resources it possesses. As mentioned above, Ukraine has them and it is provided with real and selfless assistance. Allegedly, Russia also has allies and partners, if we mean China, Belarus, Iran, North Korea and some other rogue states. To some extent, Russia is supported by India and Brazil. They help it circumvent Western sanctions, and China, Iran and North Korea supply certain types of military products and even weapons. Earlier, Belarus also transferred military equipment to Russia, but now it no longer has surplus weapons. Therefore, Minsk continues only to provide Moscow with Belarusian territory for the deployment of Russian troops.

All this allows Russia to somehow “stay afloat” and continue the war against Ukraine. However, again, one has to pay for everything. Moscow is paying its allies and partners with the remaining foreign exchange earnings, which are rapidly shrinking due to Western sanctions. And it is forced to pay off China with its own natural resources and part of its sovereignty. Moscow is increasingly under the influence of Beijing and is forced to follow its policy. As for this situation, China is openly profiting from Russia, which, in fact, has become its satellite, if not a province. Let’s look at just one of the mechanisms of this practice.

As you know, today China is the main supplier of sanctioned goods to the Russian Federation. However, due to lack of funds, Russia is forced to buy from the PRC the cheapest, and therefore not very high-quality products, and this negatively affects the quality of products of the Russian military industry. Moreover, some Chinese products are rejected at the stage of their acceptance by military enterprises, which leads to delays and higher cost of production processes. Besides, relevant officials and intermediary firms in both Russia and China use various corruption schemes for misappropriation of funds. For example, they buy Chinese goods of low cost and quality and resell them to Russian military enterprises at higher prices as high-quality ones.

The leadership of the Russian Federation is aware of this state of affairs, but it cannot do anything, because it is not able to get what it actually needs. And Russia itself has nothing left. Everyone knows about Russia’s inability to produce modern chips. But now it has lost the ability to produce what the USSR could, including artillery barrels, armored steel, bearings and much more. What can I say, when it does not even have its own metalworking and measuring tools?

A great number of military enterprises have been closed or repurposed, as a result of which cooperative ties within the military industry have been severed. Highly qualified engineers and workers have been lost. They still need to be prepared. But the training system for them is also destroyed.

Therefore, Russia will not be able to quickly resume the production of high-quality modern weapons. That is why it is forced to buy obsolete shells from North Korea, and UAVs from Iran. However, this is not crucial for strengthening its military capabilities. Most of the North Korean shells are not suitable for use, and some of them explode in the barrels of guns and mortars. By the way, the same can be said about the new shells produced by the Russian military industry. With Iranian drones, the situation is supposedly better. Although they do not particularly help Russia in the war against Ukraine, since most of them are destroyed by Ukrainian air defense. Damage is caused only by the wreckage of destroyed drones, falling on our cities and civilian objects.

These problems are carefully concealed by the Russian media, which, on the contrary, are trying to intimidate Ukraine and the United States, together with Europe, with allegations about the “revival of Russia’s military industry”. Unfortunately, many are ready to believe them, even at the level of intelligence agencies.

In particular, according to one of our friendly intelligences, “Russia produces 100–150 tanks per month, significantly outpacing Europe”. But what is forgotten is that these figures are only plans that were made public by V. Putin a few months ago. However, planning does not mean putting it into practice. Not a single new tank produced in 2022–2023 has showed up at the front. Instead, combat vehicles removed from storage bases arrive there.

The same mistakes are being made by some of their colleagues in Ukraine, reporting that “Russia is now producing more missiles than before the war”. In principle, this is how it should be. In peacetime or relatively peacetime, the military industry produces a limited number of weapons and ammunition intended for the renewal and replenishment of its stocks, as well as for the provision of units that are additionally formed. In wartime, the production of military products quite naturally increases to cover costs and losses. But if Russia did increase its missile production, it would attack Ukraine with them no less intensively than it did last year. Fortunately, this is not happening. We see only sporadic use of missiles. Therefore, their production not only has not increased, but, most likely, it has decreased.

Some experts who are quite respected in Ukraine went even further, arguing that “in 2024, Russia may produce hundreds of thousands of guided aerial bombs”. I would like to ask how it can do this when it is not able to organize the production of even ordinary shells? According to statistics, in 2023, the intensity of Russian artillery fire decreased tenfold. But even if guided bombs are produced in such numbers, another question arises: how can they be used? Russia simply does not have enough aircrafts to deliver them to their targets, even if they are continuously in the sky. The carriers of guided bombs in the Russian Armed Forces are Su-34 front-line bombers. After losses in the war, there were only 125 of them. And Ukrainian air defense is already destroying them even at 20–25 km from the front line, from where they drop guided bombs. This, by the way, was shown by the recent destruction of five Russian aircrafts in the south of Ukraine.

And, finally, about Russia’s human resources. It is believed that they are never-ending. Let’s get back to reality. Influenced by films about World War II, it seems that Russian attacks at the front are taking place with the participation of hundreds and thousands of soldiers. In fact, they involve squads of eight to ten soldiers, platoons of twenty-five to thirty soldiers, and in some cases companies of up to a hundred soldiers. They are immediately destroyed, after which the next “portions of cannon fodder” are thrown into battle.

Why Russia uses such tactics is well understood. There are no longer enough people for full-scale “meat assaults” in Russia. Even at the expense of the so-called recruitment of contract volunteers. Although, in fact, this is an ordinary mobilization. Men are summoned to the military commissariats and given a choice: either to sign a contract and have at least some rights and a vague opportunity to resign from the army after its completion, or to go to the army completely disenfranchised mobilized without any hope of returning home. Of course, the majority is forced to choose the former option, which creates the impression of “a mass desire of people to volunteer for the war”.

The real state of affairs is much worse. There are not enough people to serve in the Russian army. And this is no propaganda. According to the official report of the leadership of the Central Military Hospital of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Moscow, up to 80 % of the wounded with amputated limbs return back to the front. For some reason, this practice is presented as a “huge achievement of Russian medicine”. Although this has never happened in any army in the world in the whole of history.

This could be the end of the article, because Russia’s problems can be talked about endlessly. I just want to draw attention to one more illustrative fact. Since 2014, Russia has been intimidating us with “columns of tanks”, armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles and other military equipment that was moving towards Ukraine. Since the summer of 2022, there have been no such columns. All these weapons, along with personnel, were destroyed in Ukraine. And the Russian leadership has nothing to replace them with.

So, what “catastrophe” for Ukraine is here? It is created only by Russian propaganda, which, I repeat, is consciously or unconsciously supported by a number of Ukrainian and Western media. I don’t want to accuse journalists of treason. Most likely, they are not always competent or have fallen under Russian information influence. However, this does not justify them in any way.

Again, unfortunately, our country has not yet introduced a normal information policy to counteract such phenomena. Therefore, such a problem should be brought to the highest state level. In order to take appropriate measures. I would like to take this opportunity to appeal to all our citizens who work in the information sphere. It is not good to sow panic. Ukrainian troops are able to resist the enemy with dignity. Just don’t interfere with them.