Dialogue or Continuation of the War?

Why Russia Is Urging Ukraine to Negotiate

Ivan Sichen

Since the failure of Putin’s “blitzkrieg” in Ukraine in March 2022, Moscow has been constantly trying to force our country to “peace talks”. Of course, on the terms of the Russian Federation itself, as was the case during the signing of the first and second Minsk Agreements in 2014–2015. At the moment, Moscow is obviously trying to force Ukraine to accept something like Minsk-3, but with much worse conditions for us. However, the question arises: why does Russia want to “freeze” the war, which aimed at the complete destruction of Ukraine as an independent state? The answer to this is pretty obvious. In Russia, things did not go as planned at the beginning of the “special military operation”. In principle, Moscow’s setbacks and failures in the war against Ukraine are quite well-known. However, it is necessary to consider these issues more carefully, taking into account the current changes.

Recently, Moscow has noticeably stepped up calls for Ukraine to start negotiations to find ways to end the war. The same calls are made by some of Russia’s partner countries and political forces under its influence in Europe. For some reason, Russia does not react negatively even to the proposals of some European politicians regarding the possibility of admitting Ukraine to NATO without the temporarily occupied territories. That is, Moscow began to move away from the “red lines” it had defined. At first glance, this is quite strange, especially in the context of Russia’s continuing aggressive foreign policy, which it cannot give up, despite all the military, political, economic and social problems. However, Russia is increasingly plunging into a hopeless situation. That is why it seeks to get out of the war, at least temporarily, to restore its potential. Let’s analyze why this happened at the current stage of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Firstly, Russia’s next offensive in the East of Ukraine, which Russian troops launched at the end of September 2023, is actually failing. As you know, the main directions of the offensive are the cities of Kupiansk, Avdiivka, Mariinka and the outskirts of Bakhmut. Nowhere has Russia been able to achieve any success. And near Avdiivka, the Russians’ losses have already exceeded everything that Russia lost under Bakhmut. Although it could not capture Bakhmut completely.

Secondly, Ukrainian troops are slowly but surely liberating the territories of our state captured by Russia. From the left bank of the River Dnipro near Kherson, the enemy has already been driven away to a distance of 3–8 kilometers. Now it is more difficult for the Russians to shell Kherson with mortars. They are trying to compensate for this by shelling Kherson with heavy artillery, UAVs and missiles. But for a few more kilometers of our advance to the east, and they will lose the opportunity to fire heavy artillery at the left bank of the Dnipro. And UAVs and missiles will be destroyed by air defense. Currently, Germany is additionally transferring to Ukraine the Gepard anti-aircraft artillery systems. They are not quite modern, but they confidently destroy Iranian/Russian Shaheds. By the end of 2023, Germany also intends to provide us with additional IRIS-T air defense systems, which are no worse in their effectiveness than the American Patriot systems.

Thirdly, in the South of Ukraine, there is a so-called land corridor from Rostov region of the Russian Federation to the occupied Crimean Peninsula. So far, we have not been able to shell it with our field artillery, with the exception of 155-mm howitzers transferred by our American partners. But we can do with missiles that we receive from the United States, the United Kingdom and France, as well as missiles of our own production. The land corridor from Russia to the Crimean Peninsula is practically non-existent. Next year, no one will go to Crimea, because there are not that many suicides even in Russia. Therefore, the tourist season will again be completely disrupted. And with that, most of the locals will be left without income.

Fourthly, Russia has begun to experience an acute shortage of personnel for its troops. It would seem that there should be enough of people there. But the confirmed losses alone have reached about 320 thousand people for whom there are no longer enough cemeteries. Even before the full-scale war, the so-called lane of fame was prepared in Rostov-on-Don. It was filled in last summer. Now the second lane is under construction, three times larger than the first. The same situation is observed in other Russian cities and villages, where new cemeteries are being built. And in some places, such “lanes of fame” are placed directly in the centers of settlements. However, only those who are “lucky” are buried there. Most of the bodies of the dead are left in the fields and forests of Ukraine. Some are burned in mobile crematoria. But some, mostly former prisoners recruited in prisons and colonies, are buried in unmarked graves. Including as far as the Siberian forests, where they are taken by refrigerated wagons.

In the autumn of 2022, 300 thousand people were mobilized in Russia. According to Russian Defense Minister Shoigu, during 2023, another 300 thousand signed up for contract service, and by the end of the year there should be 420 thousand. But those people are being removed from the economic sectors of Russia, where there is already an acute shortage of personnel. First of all, workers and engineers of the production sphere, who create the material product.

Fifthly, for every killed, there are at least three wounded. There are no longer enough hospitals for them in Russia. In each of the Russian regions adjacent to Ukraine, new military medical institutions are being built. And in the occupied Ukrainian territories, civilian medical institutions are requisitioned for military hospitals. Local residents are not allowed there. Even those who were forcibly given Russian passports. At this, an injury, even a serious one, does not guarantee demobilization at all. Even cripples with severed limbs are no longer exempted from the Russian army. After prosthetics and some rehabilitation, they are sent back to the front.

There is a shortage of doctors, as well as middle and junior medical staff. Some have been taken to the front, some simply fled deep into the territory of Russia. It has already come to the point that Russian schools in Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions have begun to open special medical classes where children are trained as orderlies for hospitals. They work there. Can anyone imagine how this affects the mental state of children?

Sixthly, Russia may still have enough “cannon fodder”. Especially as no one has ever felt sorry for people there. Moreover, mothers and wives rejoice when their loved ones are taken into the army. Because in this way they have at least some benefit in the form of salaries and various social benefits. Otherwise, they would simply drink, die in drunken brawls, or end up in prison, from where again there is only one way — to private military companies or penal army units. But they need to be provided with military uniforms, ammunition, food, and, most importantly, equipment.

It is no longer a secret that Russia will have enough tanks only until the spring of 2024. The situation with artillery is even worse. Since the beginning of the full-scale war, the intensity of artillery fire by the Russians has decreased tenfold. While last year the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation could inflict 70–80 thousand artillery strikes during the day, now there are only 7–8 thousand. And in many directions, the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine already surpasses the Russian. At least 5–6 Russian artillery systems and about the same number of tanks and other armored vehicles are destroyed every day.

Russia is not able to compensate for these losses, because it has lost the necessary industrial capacities. The production of tanks was discontinued in the early 2000s. Currently, it is impossible to restore it, as there is no armored steel. There are also no barrels for cannons. Since the beginning of the war, no new tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers or artillery guns have been produced in Russia. Nor were any new aircrafts or helicopters produced. Some of them were assembled in factories from spare parts that left in warehouses. Also, some of the military equipment is being transferred to Ukraine from the Central and Eastern Military Districts of the Russian Federation.

There are some spare parts available at the aircraft storage bases, in particular, near St. Petersburg, where the aircraft repair plant is located. Until September 2023, Mi-8 helicopters of various modifications were still repaired and sent to the front. Now those of them that could be restored have already ended. And MiG-29 aircrafts are returning to service with fighter regiments instead of the more modern Su-30SM lost in the battles over Ukraine.

Russian warships are also out of the question now. The Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation was forced to redeploy to the North Caucasus. There are no capacities to equip ships with Kalibr missiles there, because warehouses and necessary equipment remained in Sevastopol, which is under constant shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And shipbuilding and repair plants in Sevastopol and Kerch are being systematically destroyed by our missiles.

Seventhly, everyone in Russia is fed up with the war with Ukraine. The country is approaching the revolutionary situation of 1905, 1917 and 1991. This was shown by Prigozhin’s revolt and his “march of justice” on Moscow in June 2023, as well as the anti-Semitic riot in Dagestan at the end of October 2023, when Islamists seized the airfield in Makhachkala, where a plane from Israel arrived. And Putin’s press secretary Peskov has already started talking about some kind of “new president of Russia”.

He can be understood somehow. Most Russians no longer support Putin. Even Russian chauvinists openly complain about what he has brought the country to. Those mobilized last autumn are not returned even on the two-week vacation they were promised. Because they tell the truth about what is happening in the war. As the Russians are already openly saying, if the mobilized are released from the army, Putin’s regime will not last even a week, because they are so opposed to him that they will destroy everything there.

Only militants from the Wagner PMC are released, because it is no longer possible to keep them in the army. They are psychopaths and outright criminals, which is no longer hidden by the Russian media. In large cities, this is not particularly noticed, but in small settlements everything is seen clearly. Constant conflicts between local residents and the Wagner mercenaries are no wonder. After all, who would tolerate them.

There is a lot more to say about the problems of the Russian Federation. They include the stagnation of the economy due to Western sanctions and the international isolation of Russia. Let’s just say that under such conditions, it is impossible to fight effectively. That is why Moscow is trying to get out of the war and secure the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories. Although even Russia itself is already convinced that the so-called dragon’s teeth should be placed not on the border with Ukraine, but between neighboring Russian regions. Because it is between them that a civil war will begin.

…Since 2014, about 200 rounds of negotiations have taken place between Ukraine and Russia. They only led to the full-scale war. Therefore, it makes no sense for us to negotiate with Moscow.