Russia in the Black Sea Region: Dominance or Loss of Positions?

Russia’s claims about its “dominant” position in the Black Sea region is an ordinary bluff within the framework of its mania of “imperial grandeur”

Ivan Sichen

According to many experts, one of the goals of Russia’s withdrawal from the so-called Grain Deal is to demonstrate its “dominance” in the Black Sea region. That is, Moscow is trying to demonstrate that it controls the Black Sea and controls everything that happens within its borders. Indeed, this is what Russia wants. However, the policy of implementing the Kremlin’s plans is broader in nature and includes a set of consistent steps to strengthen Russia’s positions in the region and oust the United States, NATO and the EU from there.

After the collapse of the USSR, the most illustrative of such steps were Russia’s attacks on Georgia and Ukraine in 2008 and 2014, as well as the Kremlin’s full-scale war against our country in 2022. However, despite the fact that Russia has seized part of the Black Sea territory of Georgia, the Azov coast of Ukraine and Ukrainian Crimea, it has not been able to achieve its strategic goal. Moreover, the unleashed war against Ukraine has already cost Russia about a third of its Black Sea Fleet and lots of other losses, but it did fail to defend its regional interests before the West. Let’s analyze all these issues through the prism of our Ukrainian interests.

The Black Sea region has always been strategically important for Russia as an access to the Mediterranean Sea and the World Ocean, as well as a springboard for Russian expansion in the directions of Southern Europe and the Middle East. That is why Russia has always tried to take control of it at all times in its history, which has made the Black Sea the object of the struggle for influence between Russia, Turkey and Europe. All this is observed today and directly concerns Ukraine, which is at the epicenter of such a struggle. Thus, after the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine occupied a key position in the Black Sea region, due to Crimea belonging to us, and Ukraine having a powerful transport, port and military infrastructure and developed economic potential. Because of this, Ukraine has become one of the main factors influencing and controlling the balance of power in the Black Sea region.

As you know, our country has chosen the course of European and Euro-Atlantic integration, which deprived Russia of the chance to realize its hegemonic plans by concluding any alliances with us. However, the Russian Federation in no way abandoned its goals and chose its usual military path. Thus, since the middle of the first decade of the 2000s, active actions have begun to strengthen Russia’s military presence in the Black Sea region. At this, in the North Caucasus and the Crimea, military units reduced in the previous period were restored, as well as new military formations and forces were formed. In addition, the number of warships of the Black Sea Fleet increased. Using the accumulated military potential, in August 2008 Russia attacked Georgia, seized Abkhazia and South Ossetia and deployed its military bases there. In fact, this was the first step towards Moscow’s restoration of its positions and establishment of dominance in the Black Sea region.

In fact, the West ignored such actions of Russia, which unleashed its hands to attack Ukraine. In 2014, Russia seized Crimea, and in 2022, with the beginning of a full-scale war against Ukraine, it also occupied the southern part of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. As a result, Russia has practically reached the positions in the Black Sea region that it had during the Soviet era. The only exceptions are part of Georgia, the right bank of Kherson region, Mykolaiv and Odesa regions of Ukraine, as well as Romania and Bulgaria, which have come out from under Moscow’s influence. Nevertheless, the Kremlin regarded the achieved “successes” as an actual achievement of Russian dominance in the region. Especially in those conditions when the Black Sea Fleet and the troops of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces really looked like a powerful force. That is why Moscow decided that it was able to dictate its will to other countries. In particular, in view of the above, at the beginning of the war, Russia unilaterally announced a blockade of Ukraine’s seaports, and in the summer of 2023 withdrew from the Grain Deal.

However, as always, the Kremlin indulges in wishful thinking. It has no dominance in the Black Sea region, no matter how much it strives for it. This is evidenced by the following facts:

– due to the war, Turkey closed the Black Sea straits to Russian warships. And Russia can do nothing about it, regardless of how “great” it considers itself and how much it “dominates” the Black Sea region. Therefore, it has lost the opportunity to compensate for the losses of the Black Sea Fleet’s warships and to build up its forces and means by transferring them from other fleets. And those six large landing ships from the Northern Fleet of Russia, which were temporarily transferred to the command of the Black Sea Fleet on the eve of the war to strengthen it, remain closed in the Black Sea;

– the United States/NATO continues demonstrative naval exercises in the immediate vicinity of the Black Sea Fleet’s zone of operations against Ukraine. The largest of them is the annual Sea Breeze (Breeze) exercise. In 2022 and 2023, they took place in the Black Sea near Romania and Bulgaria and in the Danube River Delta with the participation of seven to ten member countries of the Alliance, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Turkey, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, Belgium, Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, as well as NATO Allied Maritime Command. In 2023, Ukraine again participated in the exercise. At least 20 ships and boats were involved in combat training activities;

– Russia has not been able to block Ukrainian ports. It threatens to use weapons against foreign ships that go to them, and even threatens to board them for inspections. However, it can’t really do anything about them. And how can it do it? Because if it tried to use force against foreign ships, and even in international or foreign territorial waters, it would definitely fall into the category of pirate countries. Undoubtedly, this would not only completely undermine the remnants of Russia’s reputation in the world, but may also cause similar actions against Russian ships in other regions of the world. That is why it is trying to destroy our port infrastructure and grain reserves with missile and drone strikes in order to prevent Ukraine’s full return to the world grain market;

– the Defense Forces of Ukraine are methodically destroying the Russian Black Sea Fleet. So far, about 20 warships and boats of the Black Sea Fleet and auxiliary vessels have already been sunk or significantly damaged, including the flagship of the fleet, the cruiser Moskva, a missile ship, three large landing ships, a submarine and a reconnaissance ship.

The coastal infrastructure of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol and its warships and auxiliary vessels in the bays of Sevastopol are under constant attacks. Despite the supposedly powerful defense of the main base of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, Ukrainian cruise missiles, unmanned aerial and naval vehicles strike there. That is why ammunition depots are exploding, shipyards and fuel depots are burning, and warships are being blown up directly at their base anchorages and dry docks.

This has already forced the command of the Black Sea Fleet to move most of the warships from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, as was the case during World War II. And last year, all naval aviation and aircrafts of the 4^th Army of the Air Force and Air Defense, which were based on the peninsula, moved to the Krasnodar Territory of the Russian Federation. In other words, the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation simply fled from Crimea to the Caucasus, away from Ukraine.

But there is no peace in the Novorossiysk for the Black Sea Fleet either. In the summer of 2023, Ukrainian naval drones delivered several strikes on its Novorossiysk base and port, damaging a large landing ship. By the way, one of those that were transferred to the Black Sea Fleet from the Northern Fleet of the Russian Federation.

In July 2023, naval drones blew up two spans of a strategically important bridge across the Kerch Strait. And in early August 2023, near the Kerch Strait, a naval drone attacked a large Russian oil tanker, which was transporting fuel for Russian troops.

True, warships of the Black Sea Fleet are still launching missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine. But they are already trying to keep a sufficiently large distance so as not to get hit back by themselves. In turn, this increases the flight time of Russian missiles to targets in Ukraine, which makes it easier for our air defence to detect and destroy them.

I would also like to say a few words about the coastal troops of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. At present, they no longer exist. As a result of losses at the front, the 810^th Separate Marine Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet changed its composition several times and eventually “dissolved” somewhere in the south of Ukraine. The same was the case of the 126^th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade;

– while the warships of the Black Sea Fleet are hiding in Novorossiysk, and its coastal troops are dying on the fronts in Ukraine, the dominant position in the Black Sea region is confidently occupied by the United States and NATO. We have already mentioned their naval exercises. But that’s not all. US and NATO forces arrive in the region on a permanent basis.

For example, the 2^nd rotational division the US Armed Forces is already deployed in Romania. Besides, according to some reports, the creating in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary of a multinational rapid deployment corps (similar to the Multinational Corps Northeast in the Baltic region) is being considered.

The Black Sea itself has long been the operational zone of the US Navy 6^th Fleet. US Navy cruisers and destroyers with Aegis guided missile systems systematically enter the Black Sea area for exercises and patrols. Moreover, in terms of its missile potential, each of these warships almost surpasses the entire Black Sea Fleet…

That is, all Russia’s statements about its “dominant” position in the Black Sea region are nothing more than an ordinary bluff within the framework of its mania of “imperial grandeur”. After a series of territorial seizures in the period 2008–2022, Russia is consistently losing its regional positions and no longer has enough strength to restore them. It is from this point of view that negotiations with Moscow should be conducted, including on resuming the Grain Deal.

In conclusion, I would like to draw your attention to the format of the naval parade in Novorossiysk on July 30, 2023, on the occasion of the Russians’ celebration of the day of their Navy. The parade was extremely limited in its scale and virtually without the participation of warships. Indeed, what can celebrate a fleet that, in fact, has already lost the war.