Air War Between Russia and Ukraine

Who Will Win and Why

Ivan Sichen

Everyone knows how Ukrainian UAVs effectively destroy Russian military facilities in the occupied lands of our state, near its borders and deep in the territory of the aggressor country. Therefore, common Russians quite rightly ask: where is their, Russian air defense?

In fact, it is no longer there. It is slipping into the past, like most of the Russian army after the attack on Ukraine. Not so long ago, Moscow propaganda assured that it was impossible to overcome the Russian air defense. They supposedly had air defense systems capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to five hundred kilometers. Contrary to propaganda, in reality, Russian air defense turned out to be unable to effectively perform its tasks. Ukraine doesn’t have strategic aviation. We also lack tactical one. But we are breaking through Russian air defense. And our Air Force destroys most of what attacks us.

Before the start of the war, Ukraine had only obsolete Soviet S-200, S-300 and Buk air defense systems, as well as Strela man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS). In addition, the air defense was armed with MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters. And the radio engineering troops had old radar stations. A certain number of these forces and means were destroyed by the enemy on the first day of the war. Those responsible for this will definitely be punished. But, now the losses of our air defense system have not only been replenished, but all of it has been brought to a qualitatively new level. In the spring of 2022, Russian aircrafts flew quite freely near Kyiv, and missiles reached it, as well as all other Ukrainian cities. Then we asked our partners for help to close our sky. Unfortunately, we haven’t completely closed it yet. However, much of this has already been done.

First, Ukraine received Stinger MANPADS, then Patriot and IRIS-T air defense systems. Enemy aircrafts, missiles and UAVs practically do not reach Kyiv. Except that their wreckage falls. Ukrainian air defense has almost closed the sky over Odesa and its ports and granaries. Although Russians still target them. We will also close Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipro, which are subject to enemy strikes.

In total, our air defense has already destroyed more than 300 Russian aircrafts and 300 helicopters (ten regiments of each, respectively), 4.5 thousand UAVs of operational and tactical level and 1.5 thousand cruise and ballistic missiles. All this significantly undermined the forces of the Russian invaders, who, in fact, lost the ability to use tactical aviation directly on the battlefield. Instead, air strikes are carried out from a long distance by guided aerial bombs.

But when we have F-16 fighter jets, we will cope with these problems. Moreover, the F-16s make it possible to effectively fight Russian Su-30SM fighters and Su-35 front-line bombers. Although they are already being shot down. And our drones destroy Russian Tu-22M3 and Tu-95M strategic bombers directly at airfields. Ukrainian UAVs reach all the regions and cities of Russia close to us, and even Moscow itself. In the Russian Federation, increasingly often explode criminal decision-making centers, military bases, oil storage facilities, and strategic transport infrastructure facilities such as the Crimean Bridge.

Therefore, the question arises: where is the Russian air defense, which is supposedly “the best in the world”? And where are all those vaunted air defense systems, including the S-300, S-400, S-500, Buk-M3 and Pantsir-S1 air-defence missile-gun system, as well as air target detection and electronic warfare equipment? Let’s try to figure all this out.

At first glance, Russia’s air defense is one of the most powerful in the world. Thus, the Aerospace Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have five Armies of the Air Force and Air Defense. Each of them includes one or two mixed aviation divisions and the same number of air defense divisions.

The most powerful of them is the 4^th Air Force and Air Defense Army, which is operationally subordinate to the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces. There are three aviation divisions and two air defense divisions. In total, these are up to six fighter aviation regiments, five anti-aircraft missile regiments and four radio engineering regiments. They are armed with Su-30SM aircrafts and S-400 air defense systems. Approximately the same is the composition of the 6^th Air Force and Air Defense Army of the Western Military District.

However, both of them are currently reinforced at the expense of the forces and means of other Armies of the Air Force and Air Defense from the Central and Eastern Military Districts of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Their main task is to protect the border and interior regions of Russia. At the same time, fighter jets are operating or trying to operate on the fronts against Ukraine. Besides, S-300 and S-400 air defense missile systems have been moved to the occupied territories of our state. As a rule, the point-defense of the positions of the above-mentioned air defense systems, airfields and other military facilities is carried out with the help of Pantsir-S1 air-defence missile-gun systems.

Another component of Russia’s air defense (as well as of majority of other countries) is field air defense. It is designed to protect troops directly on the battlefield. It is based on air-defence missile brigades, which are part of each of the Combined Arms and Tank Armies.

Currently, Russian air-defence missile brigades of army subordination are armed with air defense systems of the Buk family. In July 2014, a Malaysian Boeing 777 passenger plane was shot down in the sky over Donbas by such an air defense system from the 53^rd air-defence missile brigade (Kursk; at that time it was part of the 1^st Tank Army)… A number of air-defence missile brigades of the Ground Forces and air defense regiments still operate S-300 air defense missile systems.

Each of the motorized rifle and tank divisions, as a rule, includes anti-aircraft missile regiments. They operate Tor-M2U, Strela-10 air defense systems and Tunguska self-propelled anti-aircraft guns. Crews of portable air-defense systems are also operate in battalions, companies and platoons. That is, from a formal point of view, the Russian air defense is much more powerful than the Ukrainian one. However, as mentioned above, the overall effectiveness of the former is less than that of the latter. It would seem that this is an “incomprehensible paradox”. But the reasons for this situation are quite simple.

Firstly, for advertising and propaganda purposes, Moscow in many cases deliberately distorts information about the tactical and technical data about its military equipment, overstating them. The same applies to air defense systems, which demonstrates the experience of their involvement in military exercises and use in wars and armed conflicts. Russian radars do not see air targets, and anti-aircraft missiles do not hit them even if their exact coordinates are detected. Moreover, sometimes missiles go off the flight path and fall on Russian cities and villages, or completely turn in the opposite direction and hit their positions.

Secondly, Russia has an acute shortage of air defense forces and means to protect its troops at the front and the rear areas of the country in the Ukrainian direction. More than 500 pieces of Russian air defense equipment have already been destroyed during the war. And due to Western sanctions, it is quite difficult to restore such losses. First of all, due to the inability of the Russian Federation to independently produce modern radio-electronic elements (mainly microcircuits), without which the production of such equipment is simply impossible. Moscow is trying to circumvent sanctions, and it sometimes succeeds. However, a serial production process is not ensured.

Thirdly, Russia has always lagged behind the West in the technical and technological spheres, weapons included. That is why the Western weapons provided to us help to break through Russian air defense and destroy the enemy’s means of air attack. In this regard, the most illustrative is the effectiveness in Ukraine of the US Patriot air defense system, which is much better than the Russian S-400 in all respects. Quite illustrative are the actions of the Russian military command, which is strengthening the protection of its strategic aircrafts from UAV strikes by covering them with… automobile tyres, instead of strengthening the air defense of air bases.

Fourthly, Ukraine’s air defense is gradually being integrated into NATO’s air defense system, making it even stronger. In addition to the transfer of relevant equipment to us, American and NATO AWACS aircrafts provide us with operational information about takeoffs and routes of Russian air targets, which makes it possible to aim air defense systems at them and announce alarms in a timely manner. After Ukraine receives F-16 fighter jets, such integration will become even deeper.

Fifthly, Ukraine is significantly larger than Syria and is able to respond to Russian air strikes. Therefore, the experience of destroying the civilian population of Syria by Russian air strikes, which Moscow is trying to apply in Ukraine, is not appropriate here. Moreover, Russia has fewer and fewer forces for this, while Ukraine, on the contrary, is increasing its air defense potential.

In general, all such circumstances allow us to draw the following conclusions:

• regardless of how much Moscow strives, its terrorist strikes will not force Ukraine make concessions, let alone destroy it;
• the air war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine has moved to Russia’s territory and is becoming more and more large-scaled with all the negative consequences for the aggressor country.

Therefore, Putin’s regime is already losing this war, as well as its entire “special military operation in Ukraine”.