Putin seeks to take revenge on Ukraine for the explosion of the Crimean bridge

Ivan Sichen

One of the most high-profile events in Russia’s war against Ukraine was the explosion of the Crimean bridge in July 2023, as a result of which one of the section of its automobile part was destroyed. The event quickly gained publicity and is actively commented on in the political and information spaces. At this the comments differ greatly in nature and mostly concern only certain consequences of the blowing up. Therefore, I would like to analyze this issue comprehensively in order to come to appropriate conclusions. Especially as Russia has already begun to practically implement its threat to take tough revenge on Ukraine for the “terrorist attack” against the above-mentioned infrastructure facility. The revenge is the intensification of the actions of the Russian troops to strike at Ukraine with the use of all sorts of missiles and UAVs.

The circumstances and consequences of the explosion of the Crimean bridge have been commented on by politicians and experts. Therefore, I will not repeat them, but will immediately focus on the conclusions. Taking into consideration the analysis of the situation and the prospect of its development, the main conclusions are as follows:

Firstly, according to international norms and customs of war, Ukraine has every right to strike at the Crimean bridge, including with the aim of partially or even completely destroying it. To begin with, the bridge was built illegally and is used by Russia to move its troops, provide their logistics within the framework of the Russian-Ukrainian war. It was this bridge, that in February 2022 Russian invaders used to seize our country’s southern part. Now the bridge remains one of the logistics routes of the Russian troops located in the occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

At this, Ukraine is in no way responsible for civilian casualties during the strikes at the bridge. For the above-mentioned reason, travel on it is illegal, especially for citizens traveling to the Crimean Peninsula from Russia bypassing the border and customs posts of Ukraine. Besides, civilians should understand that it is dangerous to be on the bridge and in Crimea itself. Because all this territory is actually in the war zone, and therefore one should not stay there even temporarily;

Secondly, the explosion of the Crimean bridge contributes to the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops. For example, it has become quite difficult to transfer Russian troops to the Peninsula and further to the occupied territories of the South of Ukraine, as well as to ensure their logistics. This problem is exacerbated by the suspension of traffic on the Chonhar bridge over the Syvash Bay in the north-eastern part of Crimea, which was damaged by a missile strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces last month.

Now Moscow is resolving its aforementioned problems by organizing reverse use of the surviving lane of the Crimean bridge. It is there that trucks move, transporting most important civilian and military goods from Russia to Crimea. According to a certain schedule, this section of the road is used as usual, which allows some of the cars to return to Russia.

The rest go to the Russian Federation through the Isthmus of Perekop and the occupied territories of the South of Ukraine. The main part of the traffic flow between Crimea and Russia moves along the same route. However, it takes longer than through the Crimean bridge, and significantly more dangerous, since it is located in the zone of operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukrainian partisans. And after the Ukrainian troops reach the line, which will allow barrel and rocket artillery to confidently “operate” along the motorway Armiansk (the North of Crimea) – Melitopol – Berdiansk, this traffic pattern will be completely blocked;

Thirdly, the destruction of the bridge across the Kerch Strait testifies to the Russian Federation’s inability to guarantee its reliable protection. In turn, this fact clearly demonstrates the ineffectiveness of Russia’s entire complex of means to protect the Crimea and its critical infrastructure from attacks by air, naval and special forces. Considerable funds were allocated for the formation of such a complex, and the Crimean Peninsula itself was actually turned into one of the world’s largest military bases. And one of its priorities was to prevent attacks on the bridge across the Kerch Strait;

Fourthly, in both the first and second cases, the bridge was damaged by blast waves from relatively small charges without high-explosive strikes. Nevertheless, bridge structures could not resist, which demonstrates its unreliability and low resistance to external destructive factors.

But then, how could it be otherwise if the construction of the Crimean bridge from the very beginning became a source of theft of state funds by Russian oligarchs close to V. Putin and contractors associated with them. That is why the initial estimate of the construction of the bridge had almost tripled, and the quality of construction work was recognized as inadequate already in the process of its construction. In particular, photographs of cracks in the bridge’s support columns were published in media. And this was just one of the unconditional examples of what the bridge across the Kerch Strait really is. In general, it reflects the entire system of power created by V. Putin in Russia, which is totally corrupt in nature;

Fifthly, another explosion of the bridge across the Kerch Strait caused panic among tourists holidaying in Crimea, which is demonstrated by their massive escape from there. And most of those potential vacationers who intended to come there, even with purchased vouchers in their hands, gave up travelling. As a result, the tourist season in the Crimean Peninsula, which already could not boast of a significant influx of holidaymakers, was disrupted completely.

It will not be restored in the near term, at least as long as Crimea remains under Russian occupation. And the point here is not only that the peninsula and the routes to it are actually in the war zone, but also the unreliability of Russian tour operators. According to Russian law, they are obliged to return funds for sold vouchers in case of wars, armed conflicts and other emergencies in recreation areas and people’s refusal to go there. The same applies to compensation for unprovided services, when people are forced to interrupt their holidaying due to the above-mentioned circumstances. At the same time, in many cases, travel agencies delay the return of funds or even refuse to do so to Russians, referring to various circumstances, both objective and far-fetched in nature. And who after all this will dare to travel to Crimea to risk their health, life and finances? That is why, the tourism business in Crimea, which is the basis of its economy, will be practically destroyed. And without the usual incomes will remain both the budget of the Crimean Peninsula and local residents, and this will lead to a decline in the region’s economy;

Sixthly, the situation with the Crimean bridge has created additional financial problems for Russia. Its repair alone needs 1.3 billion rubles from the state budget. As always, in reality, this amount will be significantly higher. Additional financial costs will entail complication of transport and logistics support of Crimea. And to compensate for lost income from tourism, subsidies from the federal budget of Russia, which are sent to the regions, will increase.

All these circumstances become additional factors undermining V. Putin’s authority, which has already fallen to a minimum level due to aggravation of Russia’s problems related to the war against Ukraine. Of course, this forces him to react, which he does in his usual manner in the way of political and economic blackmail of Ukraine and the world and missile strikes on the territory of our state, which is outside the war zone.

So far, another such manifestation of actions has been Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, accompanied by massive missile attacks on Mykolaiv, Odesa and Odesa’s ports. Russia does not stop even if its actions destroy grain reserves in Ukrainian ports and their infrastructure, creating a direct danger of famine in the countries of the Middle East and Africa, which Russia considers its partners.

In this way, V. Putin wants to show the world and the Russian population the rigidity of his course. He seeks for the explosion of the Crimean bridge to take revenge on Ukraine, inflict maximum damage on it and force it to stop the counteroffensive. And to make sure that Western countries weaken anti-Russian sanctions and stop supporting our state (under the threat of mass flows of refugees from regions affected by famine).

And one more thing. To achieve his goal, V. Putin is ready to sacrifice the population of the countries of the above-mentioned regions, not to mention Ukrainians or even Russians. It is them that he uses as a “human shield” in the framework of countering the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops. How else can be explained the almost forced sending of public sector employees and children from different regions of Russia to “holiday” in Crimea. At this, they are forced to go there through the occupied territories of Ukraine in close proximity to the front line.

At the same time, any Moscow’s actions will not force Ukraine and its Western partners to change their positions or make concessions. Ukraine will attack and already has certain achievements, including as a result of damage to the Crimean bridge, which complicated, I repeat, the logistics of Russian troops in the South of our State. And political, financial, economic and military assistance to Ukraine from the West is only increasing.