Alternative to NATO or a Step Towards Joining It?

Ivan Sichen

With the approach of the Vilnius NATO Summit in July 2023, the issue of determining possible forms of further development of cooperation between Ukraine and NATO the North Atlantic Alliance is becoming increasingly relevant. The prospects for deepening cooperation between Ukraine and NATO are especially important in the context of the Putin regime’s continuation of the war against Ukraine and the aggravation of relations between Russia and the West, in fact, to the level of a new Cold War.

Experts believe that several options are possible in this regard, namely: another declaration by the NATO leaders of “open doors” for Ukraine without assuming any specific obligations to it; sending a clear signal about the prospects of Ukraine’s full membership in the Alliance after the end of the war; deciding on Ukraine’s direct preparation for joining the North Atlantic Alliance.

However, in any case, the topic of continuing and strengthening support for Ukraine with additional military-technical assistance, as well as the use of other measures to strengthen Ukraine’s defense potential will be raised. Such intentions can be called NATO’s “security guarantees” for Ukraine.

What can we expect from the Vilnius NATO Summit? Let’s try to clarify this issue in more detail.

Of course, the most effective and reliable guarantee of Ukraine’s security would be its membership in NATO. Unfortunately, Ukraine did not take advantage of the chance to join the North Atlantic Alliance even before Russia’s attack in 2014, which was the result of both, its own problems related to the ambiguous attitude of the society and the country’s leadership to NATO, and the West’s unwillingness to complicate relations with Russia. Today it is also almost impossible to do. The leaders and NATO member states will never agree to accept Ukraine to the North Atlantic Alliance until the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war. This position of the Alliance is an objective reality and there should be no illusions about this.

NATO will continue to support Ukraine, but will avoid a direct military clash with Russia. Therefore, it will not include Ukraine in the Alliance, that is, it will not extend Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which provides for joint military assistance to every NATO member attacked.

This was indirectly confirmed by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. According to him, “The future of Ukraine lies in NATO”. The most important thing now is to ensure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign and independent state: “Otherwise, there is no possibility of discussing membership”. This issue was connected with the need to end the war on the terms of Ukraine.

Nevertheless, a clear signal about the prospects of Ukraine’s membership in NATO can still be given. Jens Stoltenberg also spoke about this. At this, the possibility of determining how the Alliance realizes such prospects after the end of the war is not excluded. However, while Ukraine’s future accession to the North Atlantic Alliance practically does not cause objections among the member states, the mechanisms of Euro-Atlantic integration of our country remain the subject of discussion.

In particular, in June 2023, the Sejm of the Republic of Poland adopted a resolution on the need to grant Ukraine NATO membership under a simplified procedure, which is currently applied to Finland and Sweden. 443 deputies voted “for”, 2 voted against, 7 abstained. That is, the overwhelming majority of Polish parliamentarians support Ukraine’s sovereign right to its own path of development, including the country’s European and Euro-Atlantic integration. The resolution points out that Ukraine’s accession will be beneficial for the Alliance, since it is one of the main forces deterring Russia’s attack on Europe as well.

Similar positions are taken by the Baltic countries, which consider it necessary to define a clear schedule for Ukraine’s accession to NATO and accelerate this process after the end of the war. Including without Ukraine’s implementation of the Membership Action Plan as a mandatory procedure.

At the same time, according to a number of US officials, such an option will inevitably raise questions about what exactly will replace the standard procedure of joining NATO.

Based on the above, US President Joe Biden opposed simplifying the procedure for Ukraine’s accession to NATO, although at the same time he acknowledged that the Armed Forces of Ukraine meet the standards of the Alliance. Who could have said otherwise!.. The Ukrainian troops became the only army in the world that was not afraid to enter the war with Russia, moreover, defeated it at the front.

However, we have problems. First of all, it is corruption, which we cannot cope with even during the war. Examples of such a problem were reported in our media. But what scum one has to be to rob one’s country and the Armed Forces!

So, US President Joe Biden can be understood. Especially as he offers a fairly acceptable alternative to accelerated accession to NATO. Especially if we will not be able to join the Alliance as a full member until the end of the war. Joe Biden’s proposals provide giving Ukraine stable military-technical assistance for ten years. This format is called the “Israeli security model”.

Such assistance from the United States may include: supplying Ukraine, together with its allies, with new types of weapons that have not been transferred before (in particular, long-range missile systems and aircrafts); increasing the number of training projects for Ukrainian troops; sending military advisers, instructors and medics to our country.

Besides, a separate element of security guarantees for Ukraine is the continuation of sanctions against Russia in order to undermine its economic potential and deprive it of the possibility of producing modern weapons. According to the leaders of the United States and NATO member states, in this way Moscow will not be able to continue armed aggression against Ukraine and other states.

It is also expected that after the Vilnius NATO Summit, a new body — the NATO-Ukraine Council — will begin its work. This will contribute to a significant deepening of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration and accelerate its accession to the Alliance.

Of course, without real military assistance to Ukraine, none of these measures will truly guarantee its security. We already have a rather sad experience in this regard. As you know, in December 1994, within the framework of the so-called Budapest Memorandum, the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia guaranteed Ukraine’s security in connection with its accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. At this, nuclear warheads of strategic missiles deployed on Ukrainian territory were transferred to the Russian Federation. Earlier, in 1992, Ukraine transferred to Russia tactical nuclear weapons, which remained after the collapse of the USSR. The consequences of such steps are known to all. In 2014, Russia attacked Ukraine, and in 2022 launched a full-scale war against it.

And no security guarantees that Moscow promised Ukraine stopped Russia. Ukrainian troops did this with the help of weapons provided by our partners. In fact, the scale and forms of US and NATO support to our country equated it with a member of the North Atlantic Alliance, albeit without formal obligations of the same Alliance to protect in case of an external attack, as is happening now.

Moreover, unlike most NATO member states, Ukraine has gained real combat experience, and with such a powerful adversary as Russia itself. At the same time, without official membership in NATO, Ukraine cannot realize its full potential and feel completely safe. In turn, the North Atlantic Alliance needs Ukraine as a “bastion fortress” of the Western world on the path of expansion of the Russian Federation, which has already proved its effectiveness in deterring Russia’s aggression.

Therefore, Ukraine will definitely be in NATO. Which will be quite the logical conclusion of our victory in the war.