Eighth Anniversary of Russia’s Attack on Ukraine. Consequences for Crimea

Ivan Sichen

Since the beginning of Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine in February 2014, we have traditionally summed up its consequences for the population of the occupied and annexed territories of our state. This year, the issue is especially relevant in connection with the growing threat of Moscow’s new attack on Ukraine.

There is nothing to say about the Russian-occupied areas of the Donbas. Everything is absolutely clear and can be expressed in a few words: “where there is Russia, there is war”. Therefore, we will focus on Crimea, which seems to be one of the main priorities for today’s leaders in Russia. Thus, according to official statements of the Russian ruling elite and Kremlin propagandists, Moscow is investing huge sums in the development of the Peninsula — more than in the regions of Russia itself. However, the situation in Crimea remains extremely difficult, leading to growing anti-Russian sentiment among its population. This is the greatest danger for Russia.

In February-March 2014, many Crimeans were insanely happy about the “Crimea’s reunification with Russia”. Some saw it as “protection from Ukrainian nationalists” who were supposed to “kill the Russian-speaking population of the Peninsula”. Some wanted the “return” of Crimean Peninsula to Russia as a “great world power”.

Well, someone just hoped to improve their standard of living, as promised by Russia. Including by increasing salaries and pensions, as well as reducing the cost of utilities and petrol/gas prices to Russian levels. Some Crimeans hoped to avoid the deserved punishment for various crimes and violations of Ukrainian law (including the spread of corruption in the Crimean government and the actual seizure of it by mafia structures led by the current “leader” of Crimea S. Aksenov).

All those hopes and expectations of the Crimean population were used by Russia to capture the Peninsula. However, for the most part, Moscow’s promises to improve the living standards of Crimean people have not been implemented. The only exceptions are local mafia structures and some Crimean businessmen. Although they faced fierce competition from their Russian “colleagues”. But this happened a little later with the beginning of Russia’s change of the “elite” of Crimea.

All hopes and expectations of the Crimean population were used by Russia to capture the Peninsula

The first consequences of the arrival of the “Russian world” affected the servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who went over to Russia’s side. At first, everything seemed to be fine. They were paid more than three times the amount they received in Ukraine. And some of those who had special merits before Russia, were promoted to higher positions in the Russian Army and Navy. However, most of them were soon transferred from Crimea to remote areas of Russia, and those who refused were discharged from military service. At this, they were deprived of service apartments provided to them by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

A sharp decrease in the number of vacationers on the Peninsula dealt a powerful blow to Crimea’s tourism industry — the basis of its economy

And then the problems of the “Russian world” directly affected most other Crimeans. As you know, the first of them was a sharp decrease in the number of vacationers on the Peninsula, which dealt a powerful blow to Crimea’s tourism industry — the basis of its economy. The severity of this problem decreased somewhat in 2020–2021, as a result of Russians’ complicated access to Turkish, Egyptian and other foreign resorts due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to Russian experts, due to the decline in the pandemic and the easing of conditions for entry into the world’s leading resorts, in 2022 a further decline in the flow of vacationers to Crimea is expected. At this, the fact is recognized that the tourism industry of the Crimean Peninsula can in no way compete with the resorts of the above-mentioned countries. Moreover — in the conditions of constant natural disasters in Crimea (droughts and floods), which were largely caused by Russian economic activity on the Peninsula without complying with the necessary environmental standards. By the way, the same thing is happening in the city of Sochi in the North Caucasus of the Russian Federation after the thoughtless construction there in preparation for the 2014 Winter Olympics.

The problems of Crimea are numerous, but they are well known. Therefore, we would like to give the floor to the Russian occupiers themselves. Thus, according to the report of “Krymstat” on the socio-economic situation of the republic, in 2021 the rate of population decline of the Peninsula almost doubled. And this despite Moscow’s purposeful measures to relocate Russian citizens from different regions of Russia to Crimea…

In terms of the incidence of COVID-19, since 2020 Crimea was one of the worst among Russia’s own regions

The reason for this trend is the increase in deaths and birth rates on the Peninsula, which was the result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the deteriorating living standards of the Crimean people. Thus, in terms of the incidence of COVID-19, in 2020 Crimea was one of the worst among Russia’s own regions. And since the beginning of this year, the Peninsula has been hit by another wave of pandemic, which is becoming threatening. This is already recognized by the occupying power of the Republic. In January 2022, under the decree of the “head” of Crimea, there are mandatory QR-codes with information about vaccination when visiting catering establishments, shopping malls, cinemas, hairdressers, saunas. It is forbidden to hold entertainment events in restaurants, canteens and cafes. All citizens over 60 are on self-isolation.

Also, Crimea is breaking negative records on a number of other indicators. In particular, according to the level of average salaries, Crimea is on the 57^th place after Russia’s own regions, and Sevastopol is on the 34^th place. However, such results were “achieved” only by taking into account in the statistics the monetary retention of the Russian military-occupiers on the Peninsula.

The same applies to prices in Crimea, which last year rose more than the Russian average. In particular, the annual increase in food prices in Crimea was 11.04 %, and in Sevastopol — 14.09 %. And this despite the actual transition of the Crimean “government” to forced price regulation on the Peninsula. Moreover, the price of potatoes, beets and other vegetables are thrice higher than the minimum level of survival. At the beginning of 2022, the cost of utilities was increased along with the abolition of discounts for privileged categories of the population. Besides, in addition to transport and land taxes imposed by Russia after its seizure of Crimea, residents of the Peninsula are now forced to pay real estate tax. Those who are unable to do so face additional penalties for each day of delay, forced debt collection, seizure of property and a ban on travel abroad. Despite this, the total amount of debts of the inhabitants of Sevastopol on property debts amounted to 160 million rubles, and throughout Crimea — to more than 500 million rubles.

How could it be otherwise, if the population of Crimea simply does not have money. Especially since the income of the Crimean people is mostly seasonal, and as noted above, depends on the number of tourists on the Peninsula. And all Moscow’s promises to create a developed industry in Crimea are nothing more than an information campaign aimed at justifying Russia’s annexation of the Peninsula and providing opportunities for embezzlement of state funds by Putin’s environment under the guise of various economic projects.

The main source of crime in Crimea is the Crimean authorities themselves

This is not surprising, because last year the number of serious and especially serious crimes in the Crimea increased by 4.1 %, and in Sevastopol — by 7 %. In turn, the crime rate in connection with drug trafficking on the Peninsula increased by 12.8 %. As a result, according to these indicators, Crimea took second place among Russia’s own regions after the Krasnodar Territory. Although the main source of crime in Crimea is the Crimean authorities themselves. Earlier we mentioned the fact that Crimea ranks first among Russia’s own regions in terms of the incidence of COVID-19. And this despite the fact that Moscow claims to allocate huge funds for the development of health care on the Peninsula, including for combating the spread of coronavirus infection.

The answer to this question is quite simple — mass corruption in the Crimean state authorities, which has reached a qualitatively new level after its “reunification” with Russia. An example of this was the actions of the former Deputy Director of the Health Department of Sevastopol V. Nusinov, who together with his accomplices appropriated about 200 million rubles of budget funds.

Against this background, the New Year’s holidays, which the Sevastopol government arranged for itself last December, look like “children’s entertainment”. Despite strict anti-COVID measures, they included a series of banquets at the city’s most expensive restaurants. In total, under the guise of “serving parliamentary and government delegations” they wasted about 2 million rubles of public funds. A similar scheme was applied in the spring of 2021, when 1.2 million rubles from the city budget were lost to various banquets of Sevastopol officials.

The ratings of the “leader” of Crimea S. Aksenov and the “governor” of Sevastopol M. Razvozhayev continued to fall rapidly

Of course, all this does not add credibility to the Russian authorities in Crimea. According to opinion polls, in January 2022, the current ratings of the “leader” of Crimea S. Aksenov and the “governor” of Sevastopol M. Razvozhayev continued to fall rapidly. Thus, the “leader” of Crimea received only 5.33 points and dropped from 12^th to 41^st place. “Governor” of Sevastopol scored 5.43 points and changed his place in the ranking from the 23^rd to the 37^th place. The ratings are assessed by the Russian Agency for Political and Economic Communications on the basis of a synthesis of expert assessments, as well as data processing of population surveys.

At the same time, Crimean sociologists point out an increase in anti-Russian sentiments among the population of the Peninsula.

This development of events in Crimea is completely contrary to the interests of Moscow, which allegedly brought “prosperity” to the Peninsula. However, it did not and could not take responsibility for these problems and transferred them to the local authorities of the Peninsula. Especially since they are really directly related to most of the Crimean problems, and therefore fell under the “punishing ax” of the Kremlin. In particular, in the autumn of last year, were dismissed or “voluntarily” resigned: “Deputy Prime Minister” of Crimea Ye. Kabanov (oversaw the implementation of federal target programs); “Minister of Health Care” A. Ostapenko; “Minister of Construction and Architecture” M. Khramov; “Minister of Transport” Ye. Isakov; “Head of the Administration” of Simferopol district D. Alexanov; a number of officials from the administration of Evpatoria and Sudak. Many of them have been prosecuted on corruption charges.

The “governor” of Sevastopol, M. Razvozhayev, was also in real danger of losing his post. In November 2021, he was removed by Putin from the State Council of Russia — albeit not the most important, but quite prestigious body of Russian power, so that the exclusion from it was indicative. And with M. Razvozhayev will inevitably “go under axe” his accomplices from the “government” of Sevastopol.

However, corruption has become only one of the reasons for Moscow’s mass “cleansing” of the Crimean leadership. In fact, such actions are aimed at creating a new purely Russian “elite” of Crimea, which should finally complete its integration with Russia, completely suppress all pro-Ukrainian sentiments on the Peninsula, and ensure the interests of Russian oligarchs on its territory.

Why this was not done back in 2014 is quite clear. Changing Crimean officials then would have openly revealed the fact of occupation and annexation of Crimea, rather than its “voluntary accession to Russia”. And now the old “elite” of Crimea is no longer needed and can be replaced by people from Russia, completely loyal to Moscow. Especially when it is being done under the pretext of fighting corruption, approved by the majority of the population of the Peninsula. So, Moscow is not only implementing plans to change the ruling “elite” of Crimea, but also strengthens its authority among its inhabitants.

However, this again does not create conditions for resolving the problems of the Crimean people, but just replaces some corruption and mafia structures with others. As for the problems of the population of Crimea, they do not worry Moscow in any way, just like the problems of the people of Russia itself.

And all infrastructure projects in the Russian Federation, including the construction of a bridge across the Kerch Strait, the Tavrida highway, technology parks (which, incidentally, do not yet exist), hotels and malls, are aimed only at expanding opportunities for movement of troops and military equipment as well as receiving of additional sources of income by Russian oligarchs.

The Crimean people themselves do not benefit from them, on the contrary — they are harmed by them. In particular, this applies to the loss of people’s private business due to increased competition with large business structures from Russia. And also — forcible expropriation from Crimean residents of their land plots (including dachas and residential buildings) for the above-mentioned infrastructure projects. At this, the Crimean ecology is also being ruthlessly destroyed.

Well, for all those who do not agree with this, Russia has already prepared a wide range of measures — from simple dismissal of public sector workers to arrests and prisons for all opponents of the “Russian world”. According to Crimeans, who still dare to express their opinions in modern Crimea — everyone risks to get behind bars. As in 1937, the FSB, police, and all fiscal structures in Russia have plans — how many people they should prosecute per day for certain crimes, including overtly falsified. Crimea has already become part of a police state with one goal: detention, arrests and throwing behind the bars to keep prisons full.

This is a real manifestation of the “imperial greatness of Moscow”, which attracted so many Crimeans. And who now needs such an “attractiveness” of Russia, when as a result of its neo-imperial and aggressive policies, they actually found themselves in the position of an outcast in the civilized world?

That is why many Crimean residents have long since begun to think in completely different terms, namely how to get rid of Russia. It is against them, not the mythical threats from Ukraine, terrorists and the United States/NATO, that the repressive and military machine of Moscow on the Crimean Peninsula is directed.

However, no matter how much Moscow wants to make Crimea Russian, it will not succeed.