Washington decided to deploy the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, as stated on 5th May by the US National Security Advisor John Bolton. In his view, Tehran should receive this “clear and unmistakable message” if it did not fully understand the White House’s decision on “oil sanctions” against Iran. John Bolton, in particular, pointed out that the United States was not seeking war with the Iranian regime, but was fully prepared to respond to any attack, whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or regular Iranian forces.
It can be understood from the actions of the White House that the issue of the USA’s returning to the “nuclear deal” with Iran has been removed from the agenda and Washington is already trying to reach new goals of its regional policy, the main of which is a change of regime in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Until then — “no negotiations”. Meanwhile, both, Washington and Tehran are taking steps towards each other in full determination to “put the enemy on its knees”. It is clear that neither Israel nor Saudi Arabia will remain aloof in this confrontation, and Tehran will face great challenges.
Today, the main question is important: when and how will the opposing parties cross the “red line”?
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| The US National Security Advisor John Bolton | USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) |
For the whole region, it would be desirable if both Washington and Israel chose a long-term strategy: to influence the course of the internal political forces in Iran through external pressure and not to order combat aircrafts to strike IRI, thereby making Muslims around the world start jihad.
The most probable scenario for Iran will be Tehran’s further rapprochement with Beijing, Moscow and Ankara, as their relations with Washington have somewhat deteriorated lately.
Thus, for the last three to four years, the region of the Middle East has again been a footstep away from war, and today we can only talk about some intermediate variant of geopolitical rearrangements. It will all depend on who will be the first to dare to press on the trigger.
