“Gazprom” is not an independant organization, no matter how hard it tries to demonstrate its being one. It is common knowledge that “Gazprom” is just an intrument in Kremlin’s hands and thouroughly fulfils its Master’s will.
That is why the political decision not to supply gas to UKraine (about which “horror stories” are being spread) is potentially unwise and could have been dictated by Kremlin out of dispair. And this would be a present to UKraine and Europe, which is hard to overvalue.
The matter is that taking into consideration uniqueness of our GTS, Russia cannot deliver gas to European countries, not delivering it to Ukraine. The uniqueness of our GTS is in impossibility to separate its transit functions from domestic delivery. At some point of time the Russian Federation was suggested to build a new exclusively transit gaspipe via Ukraine, which would be 3 to 5 times cheaper than the “Southern Stream”. But the Russian Federation chose to do in her own way, in favor of the expensive and absurd “Southern Stream”. Now it can get in its own gas trap.
On the other hand, no hasty political decisions on non-delivery of gas to Ukraine are not suggested by the current contract, signed between “Naftogaz of Ukraine” and “Gazprom” on buying gas in 2009-2019. For this extraordinary grounds are needed, like non-paying by our country, in particular, non-paying for some period of time, for example, for more than a month. None of these have happened. Especially at the time of more than a month- a month and a half till the end of the heating season, and with the filled to the full underground gas depots.
So, stopping gas delivery into Ukraine, Gazprom may make our country quite legitimately take gas from the volumes, available for European countries by another contract- the one on gas transit. In this case the actions of Naftogaz would be quite excused , and position of Ukraine in any civilized court-quite strong.
While Gasprom’s losses for non-delivery of gas to Europe would be much larger, than the political profit from threatening Ukraine.
Besides, in case of putting obstacles in the way of gas delivery to Europe, import of the Russian gas to European countries will be reduced, which does not suit long-term plans of the Kremlin.
